Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 231741
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1040 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and unsettled conditions will continue today...followed by
some light rain Friday. A strong cold front passage Saturday
Night and Sunday will produce very windy conditions with gusts
in excess of 40 mph. The pattern will continue to be active into
early next week. This includes the potential for widespread rain
into early next week as moisture associated with former typhoons
makes its way toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast updated to increase pops and qpf based on how filled the
radar is with returns this morning along with many surface
observation sites reporting some measurable rainfall this
morning. The chance of thunderstorms this afternoon remains in the
forecast as the atmosphere becomes conditionally unstable north of
the large baroclinic band associated with the jet stream which is
to passing to the south through Oregon and bending up and exiting
through parts of North Idaho and into Northwest Montana. May go
back and increase surface wind gusts this afternoon as the upper
level winds near 700mb at KOTX were near 50kts and around 35kts at
800mb and convection in this conditionally unstable airmass is
likely to mix these robust upper level winds down to the surface
as wind gusts. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Large stalled out frontal zone draped across the
aviation area will keep rain, and some low stratus clouds
associated with it, in the forecast for much of the day. Additionally
the cool conditionally unstable air behind the front on the north
side of it and various shortwaves moving along the edge of the
front is enough to allow for a minor mention of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Winds aloft remain robust and from the
southwest and some locations remain decoupled from it this morning
so have included mention of non- convective low level windshear in
those locations as winds shift from light or light from the
northeast to more robust prevalent southwest winds aloft. As to be
expected with such a complicated wind pattern there are likely to
be wind gusts in the afternoon, possibly as high as 30-40kts. With
so much low level moisture available from this recent rainfall
there is some potential for fog and low cloud formation overnight
and into Friday Morning as the front sags to the south. Models
hint that this same front will lift back up from Oregon and push
through the aviation area as a wet warm front Friday
evening/night. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  40  57  44  65  46 / 100  20  10  20  20  50
Coeur d`Alene  55  39  57  41  65  44 / 100  40  10  20  20  50
Pullman        58  42  59  47  70  46 /  90  30  10  40  10  40
Lewiston       65  46  64  46  73  48 /  70  30  20  40  10  30
Colville       56  36  59  41  66  44 /  70  30  10  50  30  70
Sandpoint      53  37  56  38  62  43 / 100  70  10  30  20  70
Kellogg        51  39  53  42  63  42 / 100  70  20  20  10  60
Moses Lake     65  40  59  45  63  48 /  70  10  10  40  20  30
Wenatchee      62  42  57  47  60  46 /  90  10  10  60  40  30
Omak           61  36  58  44  58  45 /  50  10  10  60  40  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




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