431
FXUS64 KOUN 150558
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1255 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

 - Rain chances continue today, highest in southeastern Oklahoma.

 - Rain chances return to northern and central Oklahoma Wednesday
   and Thursday as a weak front approaches.

 - Hot and humid towards end of the week into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Some patchy fog could develop again early this morning but enough
uncertainty that currently don`t have a mention in the forecast.
Will need to monitor obs. A few of the CAMs show scattered showers
developing across parts of southern OK overnight into this morning
due to some weak WAA that might develop. Otherwise, south to
southwest winds are expected today with temperatures warming into
the low to mid 90s.

Models show one or more disturbances/MCVs approaching/moving across
the area today. Current satellite show an MCV in west central TX
moving this way. This will bring another chance for showers/storms
to portions of the area with chances (20-30%) currently confined to
parts of southern OK and north TX. However, depending on the track
of the MCV, chances may need to be expanded further west and north.
Heavy rain and isolated areas of flooding will be the main concern,
especially in SE parts of the fa which have received several inches
of rain over the last couple of days.

Several of the models/CAMs show any showers/storms diminishing or
ending this evening with the loss of heating with most of the fa
remaining dry Tues. night. Temperatures are expected to fall into
the 70s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Models show a shortwave moving across the northern Plains which will
push a weak near/into the area Wednesday into Thursday. The front
will bring a chance (20-40%) for showers/storms to parts of northern
and central OK, mostly near and north of I-40.

Highs in the 90s with lows in the upper 60s and 70s are expected for
the middle of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Models show the upper high trying to begin to build into the region
towards the end of the week with high pressure influencing much
of the area over the weekend into early next week. This will bring
a drier forecast to much of the area.

Temperatures are also expected to gradually warm with highs expected
to become more consistent in the mid/upper 90s to low 100s over the
weekend into next week. Unfortunately, we won`t be getting rid of
the humidity quickly. With the hot and humid conditions, triple
digit heat index values will become increasingly likely across at
least portions of the fa. Heat advisories could be needed for
multiple days later this week into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

All of our terminals should remain in a VFR category through much
of the forecast. Surface winds should stay south-southeast at
5-10 kts tonight veering more southerly by 18Z at 10-15 kts
gusting 15-20 kts. PROB30s in forecast between 21/24Z for late
afternoon diurnal heating convection affecting three of our
terminals in central through southeast Oklahoma to scattered light
rain across northcentral Oklahoma. Any convection should be
isolated with high-based ceilings just above the MVFR category,
although can`t rule out brief reduced visibilities in rain should
any isolated cells pass over the terminals. A low-level jet will
develop with the southerly flow overnight by 05Z resulting in
low-level wind shear across our two terminals in central
Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  91  74  93  74 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         96  73  97  73 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  94  75  96  74 /  20  10  10   0
Gage OK           95  71  97  69 /   0   0   0  30
Ponca City OK     92  74  94  74 /   0   0   0  20
Durant OK         92  74  94  75 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...68