Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 220840
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
340 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL OCCUR TODAY. FORECAST PROBLEM
OF THE DAY REMAINS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THIS MORNING NEAR THE RED RIVER WHERE SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LINGERING...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S SEEMED TO BE REASONABLE AND WERE ACCEPTED.

TONIGHT...A WEAK MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...SO KEPT 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES NORTH OF A CHEYENNE TO
ENID LINE...THOUGH NOT SURE RAIN WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE. ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND UNDER
0.25 INCH. CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.

TUESDAY...KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER
EXPECTED MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE
DEEPEST MOISTURE IS FORECAST. SEVERE STORMS REMAIN UNLIKELY DUE TO
WEAK SHEAR AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. ANY STORM SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER UNORGANIZED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. A WEAK MID/UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE AREA...THOUGH THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  58  82  57 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         82  57  85  61 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  84  60  87  59 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           81  58  83  60 /  10  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     79  56  81  58 /   0  10  20  30
DURANT OK         83  56  85  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17


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