Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KPAH 300824
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
325 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN DEPARTING THE FA...WE`LL
SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RECOVERING INTO THE 60S FA WIDE TODAY WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURNING.

THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MORE WARMING
TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

UPPER HEIGHTS RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
SOME MOISTURE WILL BE RIDING INTO/TOPPING THIS RIDGE...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRANSPORT WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN SOME CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR
US...PARTICULARLY SEMO...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE RISING
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE COOLING EFFECT OF INCREASED
CLOUDS/CHANCE OF PCPN AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE 70S
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MUCH UNLIKE THE PATTERN OF THE
PAST COUPLE MONTHS. THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE USA. THIS TROUGHING WILL FAVOR A BROAD/LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...THOUGH A VERY PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN USA LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE NET RESULT OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE WARMER SPRING
TEMPS...PUNCTUATED BY WEAK/BRIEF INTRUSIONS OF COLDER AIR FROM
CANADA.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
MODIFIED GULF AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 60 WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY AT OR BELOW
1000 J/KG. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHER ON THURSDAY WITH THE EFFECT OF
DAYTIME HEATING. POPS WILL BE AROUND 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S THURSDAY.

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE PROGRESSIVE/LOW
AMPLITUDE 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. POPS WILL BE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN A STATE OF FLUX CONCERNING THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER. MOST GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. THE FRONT THEN STALLS
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A NARROW SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH
RANGE IS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOW TRACK. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. OF COURSE...THE MODELS ARE
STILL IN A STATE OF FLUX...SO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL NOT SETTLED.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE WEEKEND APPEARS GENERALLY COOL
AND DRY. THE AIR MASS IN THIS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL NOT BE
AS COOL AS THIS PAST WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FROST POTENTIAL EXISTS BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. DEPENDING ON THE EFFECTS OF THIS WEEKS
WARMER TEMPS ON PLANT GROWTH...ANY FROST COULD HAVE SOME IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY WILL SERVE TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUD
CIGS EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR RULES
WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...MY


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.