Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270030
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
730 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SNW HAS ENDED AS THE COASTAL LOW PUSHES FURTHER NEWD. A FEW FLURRIES
WL RMN PSBL THIS EVE AS THE DEEP MSTR EXITS. MSTR BCMS SHALLOW
OVRNGT AND STAYS BLO THE SNW GROWTH RGN. WL MONITOR FOR ANY FZDZ
DVLPMNT...BUT LLVL OMEGA DOESN/T APPEAR FAVORABLE ATTM...SO LEFT
THIS OUT OF THE FCST. LOWS SHOULD BE NR THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...A MORE
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETUP...WITH LAKE ERIE
SUPPORT. WITH THIS IN MIND...BROUGHT POP CHANCES UP THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESP N OF I 80 AND INTO THE
RIDGES. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LIFTING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AGAIN ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE
TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MOST SITES HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AS OF 00Z...DIFFICULTY
WITH TONIGHTS FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR. THINK THAT MANY SITES WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
MIDNIGHT...WHILE OTHERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR UNTIL MORNING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW...THERE MAY
NOT BE MUCH OF A MECHANISM TO PREVENT AIR FROM STAGNATING.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAF
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO
FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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