Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 251628
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EWD RETREATING SFC HIGH UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT WL KP THE AREA DRY
AND THROUGH TNGT. SHRTWV IN THAT FLOW WL INCRS CLD COVER AND MAY
SPAWN SOME SPRINKLES IN THE PERI DAWN HRS...BUT MEASURABLE PCPN
CHC IS MINIMAL...AND CONFINED TO THE NRN ZONES. THE COOL NR TERM
TEMPS WERE FORECAST NR SREF MEANS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL INCRS THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS
MOV OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT UNDR
INCRSG BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW WL BE CRITICAL FOR UPR OH VALLEY SVR
POTENTIAL. AT MOMENT...THE INITIAL SVR CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...RESIDES
WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL MCS OR REMNANTS LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A TRAILING...AND MORE POTENT SHRTWV IS PROGGED OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. INCRSD DEEP LYR SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH THAT FEATURE WL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ARRAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT LIMITATIONS ARISE IN ACTUAL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND BNDRY PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO OUTFLOW
REINFORCEMENT FM THE SATURDAY SYSTEM.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH THESE POSSIBILITIES AND LCL MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WL FEATURE AN ERN CONUS UPR TROF PERSISTING THRU
THE PD WITH BLO AVG TEMPS. SFC RIDGING WL BLD IN UNDER THE TROF BY
MID WK...KEEPING ONLY UNMENTIONABLE SLGT CHCS FOR SHWRS IN THE
FCST. THE RIDGING IS EXPD TO WKN BY LT WK WITH BETTER CHCS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDS THRU TNGT. A WK
DISTURBANCE WL CROSS THE RGN SAT. VFR SC/CU WL INCR...THOUGH
SHWR/TSTM CHCS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION ATTM.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG LOW PRES WL LIKELY BRING SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS LT SAT NGT AND
SUN. RSTRNS ARE PSBL MON AS THE LOW/S ASSOCIATED CDFNT CROSSES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07




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