Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 250522
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
122 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE COAST ALLOWING FOR WARM SOUTHWEST WIND TO FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS MAY CROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS IN STORE UNTIL MIDDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. PASSING WARM FRONT TODAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RECURRING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE
DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING ALONG A ZANESVILLE TO FRANKLIN
LINE LATE ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAGNITUDE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY UNDER
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...ALONG WITH POORLY RESOLVED CONVECTION
TENDENCIES...HAVE RESERVED LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME GIVEN THE NAM AND GFS PROPENSITY FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
EMERGING FROM THE PARENT TROUGH...WHICH IS PROJECTED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THEN.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID LEVEL WARMTH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
AND NAM/GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAME
WARMTH WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL VIA WARM CLOUD PROCESSES...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPRECIABLY HIGHER UNDER THIS
TRAIN SUPPORT PATTERN...BUT CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIURNALLY DEPENDANT AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ABSENT
UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CROSSES AND A COLD FRONT
SLIDES OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS NOT NEEDED AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECURSOR RAINFALL AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER SUPPORT MAY ALTER THAT DIAGNOSIS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON SCENARIO OF EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
EROSION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE UPPER OHIO
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH THAT
TIMING...BUT ELIMINATED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND THE NORMALS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY
TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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