Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 231500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. A crossing cold
front will return shower chances to the area tonight, especially
north of Interstate 80, before mainly dry and cool weather
returns for the first half of the week.


The stratocu should continue to decrease through the afternoon
under ridging. Warm advection ahead of an approaching
shortwave/cold front should drive temperatures back to near or a
few degrees above seasonal levels.

The cold front is progged for an overnight passage. The best
moisture and upper support is progged north of I 80, where likely
POPs were maintained, with lesser chances south. A crossing low
level jet should also result in some gusty winds overnight
in the ridges. Lows should stay above seasonal levels tonight.


Cool northwest flow will re-establish in the wake of the clipper
and associated cold front. Can`t completely rule out lake-enhanced
showers across the north Monday, as the cooler air moves over the
relatively warm Lake Erie waters. Any lingering showers that do
exist Monday afternoon should diminish quickly Monday night as
drier air filters in with the surface high encroaching from the

High pressure at the surface will then keep the forecast area dry
through at least early Wednesday. Persistent northwest flow aloft
will bring 850mb temperatures back below 0C through the short
terms, which will aid in keeping surface temperatures below
average through the middle of the week.


A shortwave trough digging into the western Great Lakes will bring
the next organized chance of precipitation back to the area by
late Wednesday. Model guidance fairly consistent with this
feature, so likely PoPs were maintained for Thursday. This late
week system, along with another cold front Saturday will re-
establish deep northwest flow, which will keep temperatures
relegated to near or just below the seasonal averages through the


Mainly mid deck VFR on the back side of departing high pressure
will shift east mid morning, as warm advection and subsidence
clear skies out. winds will be southwest near 10 KTs.

A weak front will bring a period of MVFR CIGs tonight with winds
becoming west, with a few showers across northern ports.

The next chance for significant restrictions will be with low
pressure approaching Thursday.




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