Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 240231
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
931 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and snow is expected overnight with significant accumulations
limited to higher elevations. Relatively mild temperatures will
continue until a cold front crosses Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No updates needed at this time outside of minor adjustments to
hourly temperatures. Previous discussion follows..

Strong dynamic cooling has increased the changeover from rain to
snow as we head into early evening, however, snow intensity is
expected to lessen over the next few hours as the best dynamics
and deeper lift exits the forecast area and low pressure
continues to shift to the northeast. Any significant accumulating
snow will be limited to higher elevations. A fair amount of rain
has fallen today with observed amounts ranging from 0.75 to 1.25
inches across southwestern PA. With an additional half inch
possible...opted to issue a flood advisory until shortly after
midnight.

Outside of precipitation type minimal change was made this evening
to the inherited forecast in the near-term. With regards to
accumulations...in general 1-2 inches for the Laurel Ridges, and
2-4 inches in the highest elevations of nrn WV and Garrett, MD is
expected

Temperatures will remain steady overnight.

Late tonight as the coastal low heads offshore of New Jersey,
precip will diminish with light accumulations expected. Not much
in the way of cold air behind departing low, with Tuesday max
temps near 10 degrees above the seasonal average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Relatively mild into Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front
for Wednesday night into Thursday. Above average temperatures will
continue into Wednesday night, before colder temperatures work
across the region Thursday. Mainly chance POPs for rain showers
Wednesday into Wednesday night, mixing with and changing to snow
showers Thursday, as temperatures fall toward the seasonal norms.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Several hard to time impulses passing through the mean northwest
flow will result in periodic snow chances, with possible accumulation
for the weekend with colder flow over the lakes. Temperatures
will average near 5 degrees below the seasonal norm.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR conditions should slowly deteriorate to IFR in rain through
the afternoon as low pressure tracks across N Carolina. A strong
pressure gradient on the N side of the low will also result in
gusty E winds through the afternoon before diminishing this
evening. Winds should gradually back to the NW tonight through
Tuesday. The precip could mix with and change to snow this
afternoon/evening especially for elevated ports and areas N of
PIT.

The low should exit the E coast Tuesday with precip ending,
though MVFR ceilings are expected to persist with low level
moisture in place.

.OUTLOOK...
Periodic restrictions are expected late Wed through Sat with a
crossing cold front and subsequent upper troughing.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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