Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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165
FXUS65 KPIH 292014
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
214 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...A SPOKE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN MONTANA BEGAN ROTATING INTO SOUTHEAST
IDAHO THIS MORNING AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE
UPPER SNAKE PLAIN DOWN THROUGH MALAD. A NEW LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
IS ALSO ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND ADDING
TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED JUST SOUTH OF HAILEY AND
SMALL HAIL COVERING THE ROAD SURFACE NEAR MORELAND. THIS NEW
TROUGH DEVELOPS A CLOSED CIRCULATION THAT MOVES QUICKLY INTO
NEVADA THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT. THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS TRACK THIS LOW
FURTHER SOUTH INTO ARIZONA ON SATURDAY SO WE GET ANOTHER DOES OF
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND SHOWERS. BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS TAKE HOLD IN THE UPPER AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AMERICAN
FALLS RESERVOIR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY THIS FURTHER SOUTH
TRACK OF THE LOW RESULTS IN DRIER AIR OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BUILDS A SHARP RIDGE OVER
THE IDAHO PAN HANDLE AND INTO CANADA. BY MONDAY...NEW TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUPPORTS SOME SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND THAT WILL HELP BOOST OUR
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S. RS

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
EUROPEAN HAS UPPER LOW IN PLACE WITH MUCH WETTER SOLUTION DROPPING
THE LOW SOUTHWEST FROM NORTH DAKOTA ONTO IDAHO AND WYOMING BORDER BY
TUESDAY.   SO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY VERY WET ESPECIALLY IN
EAST.  GFS HAS NOTHING CLOSE TO THAT SOLUTION WITH UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.   FOR NOW KEPT WITH VERY LOW POP SOLUTION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES MAINLY IN
MOUNTAINS.  STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT KICKS IN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH BOTH MODELS AGREEING ON UPPER LOW MOVING TO SOUTH
FRIDAY.   INCREASES POPS AND HAVE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY WITH THAT
SYSTEM.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY MAY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND HAVE AT ALL SITES ALONG WITH
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  COULD ALSO
SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WITHIN SHOWERS.  SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT A BIT WITH SATURDAY A REPEAT WITH MORE SHOWER
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT AT OR NEAR ALL TAF SITES.
WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT OTHER THAN OUTFLOW NEAR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR IDZ021.

&&

$$



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