Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 300839
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
239 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERED THROUGH THE NIGHT LAST NIGHT BUT CLEAR WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS INTENSE AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. BEHIND THIS WEAK COLD FRONT IS "COOLER"
AIR...THAT IS TO SAY NO LONGER RECORD-BREAKING BUT ABOUT 3 TO 5
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RECORD. THIS IS STILL 8 TO 12 DEG F ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES...THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS WITH THE WEST-NORTHWEST-ORIENTED
AXIS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS PRODUCES A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN IDAHO WHICH LASTS FROM WED INTO THE LONG TERM. THUS NEAR
ZERO POPS AND CONTINUED WARM WEATHER. ALSO...NO SIGNIFICANT WIND
IN SUCH A PATTERN. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH MON NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SUN MORNING. EXPECT VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH POPS NEAR ZERO AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. A TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA. IT WILL SHIFT THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND OPEN THE GATE
FOR ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUN. THERE IS A SLIGHT OPEN DOOR FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ID-UT BORDER REGION ON SAT EVENING THAT COULD
PUT A DAMPER ON FIREWORKS IN AREAS SOUTH OF POCATELLO...BUT THE
THREAT IS VERY LOW RIGHT NOW. THIS LOW CROSSING TO THE NORTH ON
SUN COULD KICK UP THE WIND...BUT SHOULD ALSO USHER SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR AS TEMPERATURES AT SNAKE RIVER PLAIN LEVEL COULD REMAIN IN THE
80S FOR A LITTLE WHILE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO
MON. MESSICK
&&

.AVIATION...EMBEDDED WAVE IN OVER ALL FLATTER WESTERLY FLOW THAN
YESTERDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP VICINITY OF KSUN BY
19Z...KIDA BY 20Z...AND KPIH BY 21Z. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AT ALL
TAF SITES BY 03Z. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. RS
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE DISTURBANCE YESTERDAY WENT A LONG WAY TO FLATTEN
OUT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND REMOVE SOME OF THE INSTABILITY FOR
TODAY. WE STILL HAVE ONE MINOR WAVE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING WHERE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...MOST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FOUND IN A BAND BETWEEN THE NORTHERN SAWTOOTH
FOREST AND ON OVER TO PALISADES RESERVOIR AREA. ISOLATED CELLS
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE SAWTOOTH ABOUT 1300 HOURS...AND ABOUT 1400
HOURS NEAR IDAHO FALLS AND PALISADES. THERE IS ALSO A LITTLE
INSTABILITY LEFT IN THE CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END
BY 2100 THIS EVENING. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOWER
VALLEYS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND MINUM HUMIDITY PUSHING
THAT 10 PERCENT LINE IN THE ARCO DESERT AND CHALLIS AREAS. BY THE
4TH OF JULY...HIGH PRESSURE COULD RECENTER NEAR FOUR CORNERS AND BE
IN A FAVORABLE SPOT FOR MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO SLIP BACK IN.
EXTENDED MODELS ALSO HINT AT A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS MONTANA TRAILING
INTO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. THAT COULD MAKE FOR WINDS ON THE
BREEZY SIDE BOTH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SNAKE PLAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RS
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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