Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 191445
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
845 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT. QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
REDUCE/REMOVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ERN HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING AND
REDUCE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW. HUSTON

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF LAST NIGHT WILL CLEAR DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AS A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH SUN
MORNING...PUTTING EASTERN IDAHO IN DRY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AIR
FLOW. AT THIS POINT THE NEXT UPSTREAM LOW ARRIVES FROM CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...SWITCHING AIR FLOW TO SOUTHERLY AND PUMPING UP MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR AS EARLY AS SUN AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SUN NIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE DUE TO THE STRONG
INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER STARTS
A COOL DOWN SUN THAT CONTINUES AT A LESSER RATE FOR MON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT...BUT WOULD EXPECT COLDER TONIGHT WITH
CLEARER SKIES THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT SUN NIGHT VERY HARD TO SAY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE WARMING ON SAT DO NOT EXPECT ANY TROUBLE WITH THE
FREEZING POINT EXCEPT IN ALPINE BASINS. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT
WITH AFTERNOON BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...MON THROUGH THU NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT
DURING THE MORNING ON MON...CONTINUING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALL DAY. BUT BY MON NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD DEVELOP IN WHAT IS
BECOMING A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. BREAK UNDER THIS UPPER LEVEL
HIGH LASTS AT LEAST UNTIL THU...WHEN A HIGH AMPLITUDE...MUCH
STRONGER LOW REACHES THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND PUMPS MOIST AIR IN
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. INCREASING CHANCES FOR THU
NIGHT. THIS LOW COULD BRING MUCH STRONGER WINDS UNDER THE MILD AIR
FLOW. THE LONG WAVE SUPPORTS THE EARLY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH
TUE...THEN THE 500MB FLOW AT THE MID-WEEK PERIOD PUTS THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AT THE COAST AND THUS SUPPORTS THE WET LATE WEEK
SOLUTION. MESSICK
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT DRY/VFR CONDITIONS TODAY FOR TAF SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. VALLE
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST IDAHO. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA. VALLE
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$










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