Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 110046
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
146 PM SST MON MAR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LOW-KEY MONSOONAL TROUGH AXIS JUST
NORTH OF SAVAII AND UPOLU IS EXPECTED TO ASCEND TOWARD THE TOKELAU REGION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A NEWLY DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST
OF MANUA IS PROGGED TO MATERIALIZE AND MATURE DURING THE MIDWEEK AS
THE LOW TRAILS ALONG THE MONSOONAL TROUGH AXIS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE
MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER
THE FCST ZONES.

COMPUTER MODELS NOW SUGGEST THE RETURN OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF
5 TO 10 KT TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER
NEAR UPOLU AND SAVAII UNTIL 11/2100 UTC...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREDOMINATE LOCAL WIND CONDITIONS NEAR AMERICAN SAMOA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION...TROPICAL CYCLONE LUSI IS CENTERED NEAR
VANUATU...ABOUT 1200 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM
IS TRACKED TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER MOVING AWAY FROM THE VANUATU
REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
.THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MONSOONAL TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION WILL GENERATE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT. A DEVELOPING
CIRCULATION ALONG THE MONSOONAL TROUGH IS TRACKED TO MOVE CLOSER
TO MANUA DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL BARRICADE THIS CIRCULATION FROM
PLUNGING FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD. FOR NOW...WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION
BEFORE MAKING NEW UPDATES. WILL KEEP THE PREV FCST THE SAME. ANTICIPATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MODERATE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE SAMOAN ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO NEAR 5 TO
7 FEET THURSDAY MORNING. WILL EXTEND THE HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR AMERICAN SAMOA UNTIL THURSDAY.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

$$

BAQUI
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