Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
217 FXZS60 NSTU 150058 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 158 PM SST Mon Jul 14 2025 .DISCUSSION... The latest satellite imageries show fair weather conditions across the islands as a mid-level high pressure system lingers over the area. This synoptic feature is also holding an active trough to the north and another active trough to the south of the islands. Upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (15/00Z) shows a stable atmospheric profile with an inversion at the 800mb level, further confirming the fair weather conditions across the territory. Model data shows the high pressure system remaining through at least Thursday before exiting to the southeast on Friday. Once this scenario comes into play, model solutions is showing another high pressure system to the west-southwest, moving south of the region. The latter high pressure system will continue to hold gentle to moderate easterlies through the beginning of the new week. Model solutions is also showing a low pressure system embedded within a trough to the south, migrating south-southeast of the islands on Monday. Therefore, expect isolated to scattered showers with gentle to moderate east-southeast winds through at least Sunday night. Winds will turn northeast to north and showers will likely increase to numerous by late Sunday into Monday. However, uncertainty in model performance is much higher after 3 days, and thus, will continue to monitor and make changes as more data becomes available. && .Marine... Observations from the PacIOOS buoy near Aunu`u show a downward trend in seas and surfs within the last 24 hours. This trend will likely continue through the midweek, and finally easing off to more favorable conditions thereafter. Model data, however, show fresh east-southeasterlies moving over the area on Wednesday, making ocean conditions choppy. With the fresh breeze, small crafts and mariners may experience rough seas in the open waters. Winds will decrease to a more gentle to moderate breeze, and seas will subside to 5 to 7 feet for the remainder of the forecast period. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory cancelled Small Craft Advisory && $$ JTAllen