Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 110014
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
114 PM SST SAT DEC 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS LINGERING OVER
THE SAMOAN ISLANDS. LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS THIS BAND SLOWLY
MOVING SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY...PUSHING THE BULK OF MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF SAVAII. LIGHT EASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERRITORY AS A WEAK RIDGE FORM NEAR MANU`A.
HENCE...WILL ONLY ADJUST THE PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...TO SHOW A
DIMINISHING TREND...AND KEEP THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CURRENT MODEL DATA SHOW AN ACTIVE
CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE SOLOMON ISLANDS TO FIJI. THIS
LINE SHOWS A FEW LOW LEVEL SYSTEMS FORMING TOWARD THE ENDING OF
THE WEEK. THE ONLY IMPACT CURRENT MODELS SHOW FOR THE SAMOAN
ISLANDS IS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AS THEY MIGRATE
CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...BUT MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS...CLOSER TO
THE AXIS OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FORM NORTH OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HENCE...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PRIMARILY DOMINATE...BRINGING
MORE HOT AIR FROM THE EQUATOR OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS BOTH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

LUTU-MCMOORE






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