Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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000
FXZS60 NSTU 220122
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
222 PM SST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A MONSOONAL TROUGH AXIS COMBINED WITH
THE SEASONAL TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAMOAN ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY.
THESE TWO MAJOR WEATHER PHENOMENONS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE FCST ZONES
UNTIL THE MONSOON TROUGH DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS NOW SUGGEST INCREASING RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY OVER TUTUILA WESTWARD. THE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTH WILL USHER MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE-
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REGIONAL SPECIALIZED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE (RSMC) IN NADI HAS
INDICATED THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F NEAR 15.2W 166.0W
OR ABOUT 280 NM WSW OF TUTUILA MOVING SOUTHEAST SLOWLY. THE COMPUTER
MODEL RESOLUTION TRACKED THIS DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE
COOK ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 48 HOURS WITHOUT ANY IMPACT ON
THE FCST ZONES. THE MAIN CONCERN ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH IS WHETHER
IT WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION OR DECIDES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA STARTING MONDAY AS FORECASTED BY PREVIOUS COMPUTER MODELS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION..

AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE NUMEROUS TO FREQUENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERAL BREAKS IN SHOWERS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO PERSIST.

.LONG TERM...
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE MONSOONAL TROUGH AXIS LOUNGES TO THE
NORTH OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS...A TRADE-WIND REGIME WILL USHER MODERATE
TO FRESH BREEZE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS BEFORE THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...
ANTICIPATE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MINIMAL SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINED WEATHER FORCES PRODUCED BY A SEASONAL TRADE-WIND
WEATHER CONDITION AND THE EXISTING MONSOON TROUGH WILL REINFORCE
SEAS AND SWELL HEIGHTS TO REMAIN HAZARDOUS NEAR 11 TO 13 FEET
THROUGH THURSDAY. ISSUANCE OF A HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE MANDATORY TO REFLECT THIS SITUATION.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY.
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
.A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

$$

BAQUI






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