Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 192100
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
700 AM CHST SUN APR 20 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WERE PRESENT
ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED WEST
OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST. A CIRCULATION IS LOCATED
NEAR ULITHI THIS MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH FROM
THE CIRCULATION TO JUST WEST OF THE MARIANAS. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK. MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER
CIRCULATION PASSING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. NOT CERTAIN IF IT WILL GENERATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL AND A NORTH SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE EAST SWELL WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ON EAST FACING REEFS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED AS ANTICIPATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS ALLOWING WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL PUSH NORTH AND WEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS JUST OT THE SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO BUT MAIN FORCING WILL
ARRIVE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT SO HELD OFF ON SCATTERED WORDING
UNTIL THEN. A WEAK CIRCULATION ON THE TAIL END OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO KOSRAE STATE TODAY. MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTH OF KOSRAE WATERS BY TONIGHT. THIS SAME
DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
POHNPEI LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY SO ADDED SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A NARROW
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY NEAR CHUUK BUT SHOWER COVERAGE REMAINS
RATHER SPARSE. MODEL INITIALIZATION CORRESPONDS WELL WITH CURRENT
SATELLITE DEPICTION A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE OVER POHNPEI. THIS DRY
AIR MASS WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER CHUUK MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
LEAVING LITTLE CHANCE FOR SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE
SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CHUUK TUESDAY.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN YAP STATE. EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTION FLARED UP OVERNIGHT
BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING OVER YAP. BURSTS OF
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF 98W
NORTHEAST OF YAP NEAR 10N139E WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS AT YAP
INDICATING STRATIFORM RAIN IS ENDING. MODELS SHOW FUTURE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT STAYING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF YAP SO
BACKED OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN FACT...A RAPID
DRYING TREND IS MORE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS 98W BECOMES
BETTER ORGANIZED. ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF
KOROR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 98W PASSES TO THE NORTH. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TODAY GRADUALLY BACKING TO
TO THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS





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