Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 042049 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
645 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED TO ADD MICRONESIA DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
CHAN-HOM PASSES THROUGH THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CHAN-HOM REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM THIS MORNING. AGAIN THE TRACK
IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE EARLIER TRACK FORECAST NEAR TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. LAST NIGHTS TRACK PREDICTION SHOWED THE TROPICAL STORM
PASSING CLOSER TO ROTA. A LOOP OF RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE
TROPICAL STORM EAST OF GUAM TURNING NORTHWEST. A FEW FRAMES
TOWARDS THE END HINT THAT IT MAY BE HEADING TOWARDS THE ROTA
CHANNEL. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS IT PASSING JUST NORTH OF ROTA SO
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ANOTHER UPDATE IS POSSIBLE.

CHAN-HOM MAY BECOME A TYPHOON AT SOME TIME BUT NOT WHEN IT IS IN
THE MARIANAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AT SOME TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN WAS OBSERVED AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING
ABOVE FOUR INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE SUNRISE. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA FOR THIS MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE MARIANAS ISLANDS. WHILE THERE
MAYBE SOME TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT THE BIGGER
WORRY IS PROBABLY WITH MORE HEAVY RAIN FALLING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY DATA SHOWED A NORTHEAST SWELL OVER THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING.
THERE IS WINDS GENERATED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTH OF THE
MARIANAS IS PUSHING WAVES IN THIS DIRECTION GENERATING A SOUTHWEST
SWELL. THE BUOY DATA INDICATED SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET THIS MORNING.
SEAS PROBABLY WILL REACH 15 FEET IN PLACES AS CHAN-HOM PASSES
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA LOCATED NEAR 11N165E IS PASSING NORTH OF UJAE
ATOLL IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. MODERATE MONSOON WINDS
FEEDING TOWARD NANGKA WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS NEAR POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE THRU MONDAY. FARTHER EAST...DRIER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE ALREADY DOMINATING MAJURO AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU
MIDWEEK. ONCE NANGKA HAS MOVED FARTHER NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI NEAR MIDWEEK...THESE SAME WINDS WILL ALSO SPREAD WESTWARD
OVER THESE LOCATIONS.

HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
HAZARDOUS SURF WILL LINGER NEAR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS DRIFTING ERRATICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR GUAM AND ROTA THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG MONSOONAL WINDS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF CHAN-HOM ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CHUUK UNTIL
MONDAY...YAP AND KOROR THRU TUESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP OFF AND
ON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THESE PLACES. AS CHAN-HOM
MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS TOWARD MIDWEEK...THESE WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS KOROR AND YAP. FOR CHUUK...MODERATE TO
FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS INDUCED BY TROPICAL STORM NANGKA MIGHT STILL
TRIGGER PERIODIC CONVECTION THERE THRU TUESDAY. AFTERWARD...DRIER
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL ALSO REACH
CHUUK BY MIDWEEK.

LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED SEA HEIGHT DATA INDICATES SEAS NEAR KOROR
HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS. WITH STRONGER MONSOON WINDS
STILL EXPECTED NEAR YAP AND CHUUK...HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT
WILL LINGER THERE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS SURF WILL ALSO
PERSIST ACROSS CHUUK UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...KOROR AND YAP THRU
MIDWEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...TYPHOON WATCH FOR GUZ001-002.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001>004.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST MONDAY FOR GUZ001.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUZ002.

     TYPHOON WARNING FOR GUZ003-004.

MARIANAS WATERS...TYPHOON WATCH FOR PMZ151-152.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PMZ152.

     TYPHOON WARNING FOR PMZ153-154.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST MONDAY FOR PMZ151.

&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN



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