Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 020845
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
645 PM CHST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITHIN THE
NORTHERN MARIANAS WATERS RELATED TO TYPHOON SOUDELOR. THE EYE OF
SOUDELOR IS SEEN JUST EAST OF SAIPAN WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE
REVEALS NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 8
THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR WHICH INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AND
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ABOVE THAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TYPHOON SOUDELOR IS STILL THE PROVERBIAL 800 POUND GORILLA IN THE
ROOM. PLEASE READ BELOW IN THE TROPICAL SECTION FOR A FULL
DISCUSSION.

AFTER SOUDELOR PASSES...LOOKS LIKE THE MARIANAS WILL BE CAUGHT UP
FOR A FEW DAYS IN A MONSOON TROUGH ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR A FEW DAYS...THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ANYWAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. BY THE
WEEKEND...NEWEST GFS40 SHOWS A RETURN TO TRADE WIND FLOW WHICH BY
THEN WOULD USHER IN REDUCED SHOWER COVERAGE.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TYPHOON SOUDELOR JUST SLOWED DOWN DRAMATICALLY...PROBABLY MEANING
IT IS ABOUT TO TURN. IT SEEMS TO BE STARTING THE NORTHWEST TURN AT
LAST. THIS WOULD HAVE IT PRIMARILY AFFECTING TINIAN AND SAIPAN...
WITH A CHANCE THAT THE NORTHERN ISLANDS MAY IN FACT SEE SOME NASTY
WEATHER AFTER ALL. THE WATCHES MAY HAVE TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS
ON SHORT NOTICE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUDELOR TO THE EQUATOR AND 178E
AND REMAINS THE MAJOR FEATURE IN THE AREA. FOR THE MOST PART THE
CONVERGENCE INTO THIS TROUGH HAS KEPT THE CONVECTION LINGERING
OVER POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES. AS SOUDELOR TRACKS WESTWARD THE
AREA WILL A RETURN TO AN EASTERLY WIND PATTERN.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
AGAIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS THE MAJOR PLAYER IN THIS REGION. A
LARGE MONSOON BAND EXTENDS ACROSS PALAU AND INTO THE MARIANAS
ISLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED AS THIS WILL BE THE
MAIN WEATHER MAKER. PALAU AND YAP WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. CHUUK WEATHER WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE WEEK.

NO CHANGE TO THE SEAS FORECAST AS WAVE MODELS SHOW SEAS BUILDING ACROSS
PALAU AND YAP BY MIDWEEK DUE TO THE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LONGER PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST AS TROPICAL
STORM SOUDELOR PASSES TO THE NORTH OF BOTH LOCATIONS. THESE
CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SHORES AND REEFS FOR YAP AND KOROR BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CHST MONDAY FOR GUZ001.
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUZ002.
     TYPHOON WARNING FOR GUZ003-004.

MARIANAS WATERS...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PMZ152.
     TYPHOON WARNING FOR PMZ153-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR PMZ151.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TUESDAY
     TO 4 PM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR PMZ151.

&&

$$

STANKO/MILLER/ZIOBRO



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