Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 242103
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
703 AM ChST Mon Sep 25 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Scattered clouds and isolated showers prevailed mainly east of
the Marianas early this morning. Combined seas are generally 3 to
5 feet at the buoys.

&&

.Discussion...
A surface ridge is west of the Marianas with weak troughing moving
in by Tuesday, the trough amplifies a bit and gets some upper
support. The trough remains over the region and another upper low
moves over the area on Wednesday. During this time, there will
likely be at least some times of scattered showers, but it is
difficult to pinpoint. Then by later in the week, should be less
moisture so should be a return to isolated showers and
thunderstorms. For now, did not make any major changes to the
forecast.

&&

.Marine...
Buoys remain in the 3 to 5 foot range and will likely drop about a
foot over the next day or so. However, latest guidance indicates
surf will decrease on Tuesday, but we could be on the cusp of low
or moderate depending on how quickly the decrease occurs.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
A trade-wind trough from east of the date line has migrated into
southern portions of the Marshall Islands, Kosrae state and
Pohnpei state. This will bring unsettled weather to Majuro today
and Kosrae tonight. Pohnpei will see a slight increase in clouds
and showers starting tonight, however the bulk of the action will
be to their south. Another trough will bring a second round of
unsettled weather about Thursday. Winds and seas are expected to
remain benign, however.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
A trade-wind trough currently departing Chuuk will begin to
affect Yap this afternoon, and could last through Tuesday. With
the trough departing, Chuuk will have fair weather until Tuesday
when the trough near Pohnpei begins to build in. On Thursday, the
next trough will give it a reinforcing shot making for unsettled
weather Thursday and Friday at Chuuk. Meanwhile a weak circulation
is spraying showers and thunderstorms all over in the area near
Koror and just west of Yap. This will continue through Tuesday,
then the weather at Yap will stabilize while at Koror the showers
will become scattered. Then, by Thursday, both Yap and Koror will
be starting to dry out. As in Eastern Micronesia, seas and winds
are forecast to remain benign.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Nierenberg/Stanko



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