Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 312025
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
625 AM CHST WED JUN 1 2016

.Synopsis...
Isolated showers are seen south of Guam with only spotty showers
across the Marianas. Partly cloudy skies and gentle winds prevail
over the region.

&&

.Discussion...
Dry conditions continue across the Marianas this morning. A TUTT
cell remains to the east of the islands, producing isolated
thunderstorms to the north of Saipan and south of Guam. The models
continue to move the TUTT cell over the region toward the end of
the week. Though moisture remains limited, this feature could
bring a few thunderstorms to the area Friday through the weekend.
Therefore, chose to maintain slight chance of thunderstorms for
now. Due to increasing moisture early next week, expect isolated
showers through the week. The winds were updated for the first few
days for slightly higher wind speeds and more easterly directions.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Gentle trade winds are seen across much of Micronesia from Chuuk
State eastward to the Marshall Islands. Two weak trade-wind
disturbances, one is passing southwest of Pohnpei and another one
departing the Marshall Islands this morning. An upper-level high
is also centered just west of the Marshall Islands near 8N167E.
The first disturbance will trigger a few showers near Pohnpei
today and Chuuk on Thursday. The second disturbance might spark
off a thunderstorm or two near Kosrae today as it moves just to
the north. It will also create some passing showers near Pohnpei
on Friday and Chuuk this weekend. Even though it is already
pulling away from the Marshall Islands, surface convergence to its
east will combine with divergent flow east of the upper high to
generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Majuro
thru tonight.

Farther east, a better-organized trade-wind disturbance can be seen
east of the Marshall Islands near 175E. A trade-wind convergence
zone also exists between 3N and 10N, stretching eastward from the
disturbance to beyond 160W. These features will gradually push
westward and generate more rain and thunderstorms for Majuro this
weekend and then Kosrae, Pohnpei and Chuuk early next week.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Reasoning for the Chuuk forecast is found under Eastern Micronesia
above.

With light to gentle trade winds expected across the Republic of
Palau and Yap State thru this weekend, weather will be dominated by
the upper-level environment. An upper-level low centered northwest
of Koror near 9N142E is slowly drifting westward away from the area.
Nevertheless, divergent flow to its southeast will continue to
produce showers and thunderstorms near Koror until Friday morning.
Afterward, an upper-level high building westward from eastern
Micronesia will spread fair weather already over Yap into Koror.

&&

.GUM Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Kleeschulte/Chan



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