Area Forecast Discussion
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899
FXPQ60 PGUM 072059
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
659 AM CHST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE MARIANAS WATERS WHILE A DEPARTING TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS
FOUND WEST OF THE ISLANDS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 12 TO 22 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 THOUSAND
FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MARIANAS REMAIN IN A RATHER DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN. THE
DISTURBANCE NOW TO THE WEST DID MANAGE TO DROP A WETTING RAIN
YESTERDAY AT THE AIRPORT...JUST BARELY. SINCE MIDNIGHT THE AIRPORT
HAS HAD ONLY A TRACE...WHICH MAKES TODAY A REAL NAIL BITER FOR THE
DROUGHT INDEX. ANY MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY WILL START TO NIBBLE AWAY
AT THE DROUGHT INDEX A BIT. IF GUAM INTL AIRPORT RECEIVES ONLY A
TRACE...THE KBDI WILL KEEP RISING UNTIL ANOTHER WETTING RAIN EVENT.
STRONGER WINDS ARE PROGGED TO COME A LITTLE LATER THIS WEEK WITH A
DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WEEKEND TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...LOAD SHEDDING MEANT THAT MODEL GRIDS AVAILABLE FOR
POPULATING INTO THE FORECAST WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THAT IS THE
REASON I STARTED WITH THE GFSDNG AS IT HAD THE FEWEST GAPS. OTHER
THAN PUSHING THE STRONG WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THERE
WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
LOCATIONS WITH ONLY MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER OBSERVED FROM
CHUUK STATE EASTWARD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK WITH MODELS HINTING AT A CHANGE LATE IN THE WEEK ACROSS
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WHEN DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TRIES TO
MAKE A COMEBACK. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO ACROSS THE REGION AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FURTHER LATER THIS WEEK.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT ACROSS
POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DECLINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS ENDING AT ALL LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LARGE TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF MAJURO...KOSRAE AND MAJURO. THE
THREAT OF INUNDATION AT MAJURO IS STILL PRESENT DUE TO VERY HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...ALTHOUGH BELOW NORMAL SEA LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CURRENT EL NINO WILL REDUCE THE THREAT SOMEWHAT.
NONETHELESS...INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT MAJURO DURING
THE NEXT 4 HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURF IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT MAJURO BY WEDNESDAY...POHNPEI BY TUESDAY WHILE
LINGERING ON KOSRAE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY EAST-NORTHEAST TRADE-WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER CHUUK AND YAP
STATES AS WELL AS PALAU. NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THESE LOCATIONS WITH MODELS INDICATING DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINING GENERALLY SOUTH OF 3N THIS WEEK.

TRADE-WINDS...SWELL AND WAVES WILL REMAINS HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CHUUK COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE IN
THE WEEK AT YAP AND KOROR AS NORTH SWELL ARRIVES FROM A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF OF JAPAN.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS



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