Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 010200

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1000 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

A cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday before
stalling over southeastern NC Friday. Tropical Storm Hermine is
expected to track NE across portions of central or eastern NC Friday
night and early Saturday.


As of 1000 PM Wednesday...

Isolated convection that occurred mainly west of the highway 1
corridor dissipated close to sunset. An area of low pressure
tracking parallel to the SC/southern NC coast will continue to drift
east-ne overnight. While most of the showers associated with this
system will remain well to our se, could see a stray shower or two
skirt across Cumberland, Sampson, and Wayne counties into the
overnight hours.

A broken band of convection occurring along the vicinity of the Blue
Ridge appears to be supported by a weak zone of speed convergence
(per 00Z upper air analysis) in the 850MB-500MB layer. As this band
of convection drifts off the higher terrain, expect most of the
showers/isolated storms to dissipate but could see a few survive and
cross the NW Piedmont including the Triad cities through 2-3 AM.

Otherwise expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies across the
region. Overnight temps will be within a degree or two of 70.


As of 1200 PM Wednesday...

Expect an increased chance for convection on Thursday (particularly
the NW Piedmont) as a cold front attendant strengthening cyclonic
flow aloft over the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic progresses across the
Appalachians. Will indicate a 50% chance of showers and storms
everywhere. Expect highs near 90F, lows Thu night in the upper 60s
(NW) to lower 70s (SE). -Vincent


As of 305 PM Wednesday...

...Newly named TS Hermine to possibly impact central NC Friday and

The 12z runs of the GFS and ECMWF both indicated a slower and westward
shift in the track of now TS Hermine , a trend that started last
night. It appears Hermine will drift north across the Florida
panhandle and then begin to interact with a trough digging through
the Midwest. This interaction makes the westward shift plausible,
and the GFS/ECMWF paint 2+ inches of qpf across nearly all of
central NC Friday through early Saturday as the low center moves
essentially along the I-95 corridor. The official track from the
NHC this afternoon will offer much needed guidance in these
trends. One thing that will likely be a significant factor will
be the cold front that settles across the area tomorrow. Heavy
precip could develop along the front by early Friday, still well
away from Hermine, and a left of track QPF max should evolve as
well given the front and upper jet to the northwest. We have
remained a little conservative in our increase in QPF, but there
is enough agreement in the GFS and ECMWF, supported by many GEFS
members, to forecast 1-3 inches of storm total QPF, with some high
amounts in the southeast. Wind isn`t a significant threat with
this potential event, but an inland track will also increase winds
and a threat of some downed trees with the heavy rain. Have also
lowered highs into the upper 70s on Friday, though these could be
several degrees cooler as well. -BS

Saturday: Forecast confidence is quite low, especially earlier in
the day, due to the uncertainty in track and speed of the tropical
cyclone. Latest operational GFS and NAM have brought the cyclone`s
track progressively west into the piedmont with slower forward
speed. This would obviously extend potentially heavy rain into
Saturday morning. Will thus have chance PoPs in the west graduated a
lingering likely PoP in the east during the morning tapering off to
chance in the northeast by evening, with no PoP overnight. Guidance
highs are likely too high as well the likelihood of extensive
cloud coverage and rain...will lower to the 75 to 80 degree
range...with mins on Saturday night from 60 to 65 under clearing

Sunday through Wednesday: Mostly clear skies through the period as
cool surface high pressure will be building in from the north and
overhead early next week. This will maintain below-normal
thicknesses through Monday, with temps beginning to climb Tue and
Wed as the high shifts overhead and offshore. Highs will be mostly
in the lower-mid 80s with lows in the lower-mid 60s through Mon,
followed by warming temps to upper 80s Tue and Wed with potentially
some lower 90s on Wed.


As of 740 PM Wednesday...

24-hr TAF Period: VFR conditions are expected overnight, aside from
isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening. Patchy fog and low
stratus is expected between 09z-13z, mainly around KRWI, then VFR
CIGS and VSBYS expected through 18z/THURS. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are then forecast in the KGSO/KINT areas between 19z-
23z, with the chance reaching the KRDU/KFAY/KRWI areas between 20z
and 00Z/FRI.

Looking ahead: Based on the latest projected forecast concerning
Tropical Storm Hermine, sub-VFR conditions with rain and fog
(potentially heavy) and potentially gusty winds will be possible at
all terminals Fri/Sat, with VFR conditions returning in the wake of
the system by late Saturday into Sunday.




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