Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 261140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
740 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

A quasi-stationary front across southwestern NC will return north as a
warm front today as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front
will move very slowly southeast through the area Tuesday and into Wednesday.


As of 345 AM Monday

Southerly moist upglide/weak WAA atop a quasi-stationary frontal boundary
that extends across the western piedmont/foothills will support a small
chance of showers across the TRIAD this morning. The shower activity should
dissipate into sprinkles as it encounters the low-level ridge axis and
associated drier and stable air in place across the eastern piedmont and coastal plain.

The parent high anchoring this low-level ridge axis down the Mid-Atlantic
Coast will quickly move offshore today in advance of a cold front and northern
stream trough moving into the central and southern Appalachians. This will
allow the quasi-stationary frontal boundary over the western piedmont
to retreat northeastward throughout the day, paving the way for
warmer air just to our southwest to spread ne. Yesterday, we saw temperatures
in the warm sector across the southwestern piedmont soar into the lower 90s.
While low-level cloud cover should temper temperatures reaching these
levels today, expect to see a sharp SW to NE temperature gradient
with temperatures ranging from lower to mid 80s southwest to lower/mid 70s
northeast, highly sensitive/dependent to the exact timing of the retreating
warm front.

With weak to moderate instability developing as the warm air spreads north
and maximized across the foothills and western piedmont, the better
convective rain chances this afternoon/early evening will remain confined to
western portions of the forecast area.  Weak deep-layer shear and poor mid-level lapse
rates will limit severe potential.

Sfc cold front is forecast to slip east of the mountains, but remain
west of the forecast area through daybreak Tuesday. Upper support is almost
non-existent, so expect convection to be tied closed to the low-level
moisture convergence along the front and thus expect bulk of shower
activity to remain across the NC Foothills and Western Piedmont.
Lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.


As of 415 AM Monday...

Low-level frontal zone stretched across central NC will slow down,
potentially temporary stall across the area as the closed upper low
over the Great Lakes and attendant deep upper trough begins to digs
south into the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians. Axis of 1.6-
1.7" PWAT attendant to the front will be centered across the area
Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night with numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms expected to move slowly south-southeastward
across the area. Weak mid-level lapse rates should again limit
destabilization and thwart severe threat. We could however see some
locally heavy rain and minor flooding with models suggesting
rainfall amounts widespread rainfall amounts of a half inch to an
inch, with locally higher amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches possible. The
front should settle slowly across eastern portions by late Tuesday
evening/night with rain chances beginning to taper off from nw to se
by daybreak Wednesday.

Highs in the mid 70s northwest to lower 80s se. Lows Tuesday night
60 to 67.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/...
As of 345 AM Monday...

Forecast confidence remains below average due to an atypically
complex synoptic pattern expected to evolve over North America
mid/late week. The 00Z GFS/ECMWF both indicate that an upper level
low amplifying over the Great Lakes early this week will dig
southward through the OH valley and cut-off in vicinity of the TN
Valley/Mid-Atlantic through mid/late week as an expansive upper
level ridge builds over the eastern 2/3 of North America, though
disagreement persists w/regard to the precise evolution of the cut-
off low. Broadly speaking, long range guidance supports above normal
chances for cloud cover/precipitation and slightly below normal
temperatures mid/late week, though further details (i.e. precip
amount/timing and perhaps severe wx potential) remain difficult to
ascertain at this time. -Vincent


As of 740 AM Monday...

Southerly moist upglide atop a quasi-stationary frontal boundary that
extends across the western piedmont will support a chance of showers
primarily over the western and central piedmont this morning. The front
will retreat northeastward as a warm front between 15 to 21z. IFR to MVFR
ceilings over the piedmont will lift to VFR with the passage of
the warm front.

Moisture pooling ahead of a cold front moving into the
mountains will also support a small chance of showers and possibly
a thunderstorm late in the afternoon/early evening with rain chances
increasing overnight with sub-VFR ceilings as the front approaches
the NW Piedmont.

Looking beyond the 24 TAF Period: A cold front will move very slowly
se through the area Tuesday and into the day on Wednesday. Showers
and storms with associated periods of sub-VFR conditions are
expected to accompany the front. Conditions are expected to improve
to VFR from northwest to southeast Wednesday-Wednesday night as
drier air filters into the area.

During midweek, a rather unsettled pattern is expected to evolve as
a deep upper low sags southward from the Great Lakes into the
Central Appalachians.





LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...CBL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.