Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 310751
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
350 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED ENHANCED 850-700MB SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DIRECT
A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE(PWATS OF 2.0-2.25)NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIALLY DRIVEN BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH DYNAMICS AND ENHANCED MID/UPPER
LEVEL WIND FIELDS...BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT WILL PROGRESS STEADILY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT
AND SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY
MIDDAY...BEST FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT ALONG THE COAST AND
PERHAPS JUST OFFSHORE...INVOF OF A WEAK INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH AND
EXITING TROPICAL PLUME. WHILE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED DIURNAL HEATING AND
RESULTING MODERATE BUOYANCY WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NC WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND HOW THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EVOLVES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY COULD RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

A WEAK/NONDESCRIPT SFC PATTERN WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RETROGRADES WESTWARD.
OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS...
FORCING MECHANISM IS LACKING WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION AT
BEST.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK TO ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WRT WHAT HAPPENS TO IT. THE LATEST ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE S/W SHIFTING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON... WITH BRIEF S/W RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA BEFORE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...
THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER MOVING THE INITIAL S/W DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY... LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AS A STRONG 595 DECAMETER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THIS PATTERN... THE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND NOT IN
THE DIRECTION OF CENTRAL. AT THE SURFACE... WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL S/W
DISTURBANCE... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING/EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS... AT
THIS TIME... WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW... SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT
WILL GENERALLY BE MEAN RIDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THIS TIME (WITH THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLOSED LOWS).
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO POSSIBLY SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z MONDAY...
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LIFR TO IFR AS SHOWERS/RAIN OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE GREATEST AND MORE PROLONGED
AT EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS STRONGEST.

AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EASTERN TERMINALS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...CBL



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