Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 020113
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
913 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL WAVER OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 913 PM SATURDAY...

THE CURRENT SFC DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE RANGING FROM THE UPPER-50S TO
MID 60S...ALONG WITH THE 00Z GSO SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS A PWAT OF ONLY
0.76"...BASICALLY TELLS THE WHOLE STORY...UNUSUALLY DRY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. SO OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST...OVERNIGHT WE`LL SEE FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOW-MID 60S...COOLEST NW. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS EVENING.

PREV NEAR TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY IN VICINITY OF THE NC
COAST AS IT IS TRAPPED BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AIR
MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. UNDER THE LIGHT/CALM WIND REGIME AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD LOWER INTO THE
60S...NEAR 70 OVER THE SE.

SUNDAY`S WEATHER SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH LOTS OF SUN...LIGHT
WINDS AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 50S OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES IN THE
1425-1435M RANGE IS SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPS IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

CONTINUED HOT AND MAINLY DRY THIS PERIOD AS WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION CHANGES LITTLE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WHILE DOMINATE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
SUNDAY`S WEATHER SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WHILE A WEAK SFC HIGH REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT LOTS OF SUN...LIGHT
WINDS AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 50S OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES IN THE
1425-1435M RANGE IS SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPS IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.
BY MONDAY...THE SFC HIGH FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH ALLOWS THE COASTAL
TROUGH TO RETROGRADE INTO THE PIEDMONT. THE DEMISE OF THE SFC HIGH
MAY BE A LITTLE PREMATURE AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO
WEAKENS SFC HIGHS OVER THE SE U.S. TOO QUICKLY.

THUS EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE FAR SE...AND MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW-MID 90S. WHILE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE
50S-NEAR 60 SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS MAY CREEP BACK INTO THE
UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NW TO AROUND 70 SE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

WHILE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE U.S...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL UNDERGO A
DEAMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A S/W PROJECTED TO CROSS THE PACIFIC NW
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. THIS RELAXING OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE
WESTERLIES TO DIP A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LOWER OH
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER JET
TO CENTRAL NC WILL ALLOW S/WS AND ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES IN THIS
FLOW TO POSSIBLY AFFECT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
CASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A FEW S/WS WILL CROSS NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL TO INDICATE THAT
THE CONVECTION WILL BE ANY MORE THAN SCATTERED...THUS THE DRY
CONDITIONS BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC MAY PERSIST.

PRIOR TO THE INCREASE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND HOT AS A MEAN WLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT
RESULTS IN A LOW LEVEL SW FLOW. THIS SFC TROUGH AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S WILL BE
COMMON UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN UPPER 80S-AROUND 90 MAY OCCUR DUE
TO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM SATURDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THEY VEER AROUND TO MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN WHETHER THERE WILL BE A
REDUCTION IN CIGS/VISBYS AT KFAY/KRWI DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE WHILE THE GFS IS BONE DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THESE POSSIBILITIES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE THAT THEY
WILL OCCUR IS LOW AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. -RAH

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME PATCHY MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY. -BLAES

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...RAH/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...RAH/BLAES


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