Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 270604
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
103 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 905 PM MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AS EVIDENT OF BLUSTERY NW SFC WINDS IN THE
TRIAD AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE RALEIGH
DURHAM AREA THROUGH 10 PM...AND ROCKY MOUNT/WILSON...AND
FAYETTEVILLE AROUND MIDNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AIDING TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN A BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
THE RDU AREA SOUTHWARD TO FORT BRAGG. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
GLIDE SEWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STRONG JET (NEAR 150KTS) DIGGING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE
UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO DEEP SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THIS DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL PULL COLDER AIR FARTHER
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ROTATING
SOUTHWARD FROM VA INTO NE NC WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NE PIEDMONT AND THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT DUSTING
ON THE TOP OF CARS OR WOODEN DECKS...BUT THE EXPECTED LIGHT PRECIP
INTENSITY AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND SUGGEST NO ACCUMULATION ON THE
GROUND OR ROAD SURFACES.

BLUSTERY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ADVECT A DRIER COLDER AIR MASS INTO
CENTRAL NC. THIS WIND SHOULD EVAPORATE THE BULK OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE
LEFTOVER FROM RECENT RAINFALL. THUS AS TEMPS DROP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE SCENARIO THOUGH COULD SEE A SLICK
SPOT OR TWO ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINWATER
NORMALLY COLLECTS AND IS SHELTERED FROM THE WIND. -WSS

THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SNOW FLURRY OR SHOWER MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF RDU THROUGH LATE MORNING... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER... THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
INFLUENCE ON MUCH OF THE REGION AS IT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL OUT TO
THE NE. THE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY NE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW
AND WEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WILL PRODUCE A CHILLY WIND CHILL IN THE
20S AND 30S THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 20S. -BADGETT

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND NOR`EASTER AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE /SFC HIGH/ BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
(WED) AND CAROLINAS (WED NIGHT). EXPECT HIGHS 40-45F...COOLEST NE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S WED NIGHT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLY BY SUNRISE...ESP N/NW
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. IF UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS ARRIVE EARLY AND/OR
THICK ENOUGH...LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WOULD
OTHERWISE BE THE CASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT. GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL OCCUR IN ORDER FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...ESP WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
GIVEN THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL BE BRIEF/WEAK AND LARGELY CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 33-38F RANGE...COOLEST NW
AND WARMEST SE.

FRI-SAT: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST FRI/SAT...IN ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...
AND IN ASSOC/W NEUTRAL ADVECTION...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD...AND A COLD ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ON SAT.

SUN-MON: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (BEYOND THE TYPICAL) PERSISTS WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED AT THIS TIME (BEYOND GUESSING). IN
GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE /ATTENDANT LOW/ PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
EASTERN US...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
LATE MON/MON NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONDITIONS AT THIS HOUR ARE GENERALLY SPLIT
BETWEEN VFR IN THE WEST WHERE IT IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND MVFR IN
THE EAST WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS WITH VISIBILITIES EVERYWHERE
COMING IN AT 10 SM. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A FEW WIND GUSTS OUT THERE
UP TO 20 KTS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST WHICH MAKES SINCE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE INCREASES CLOSER TO THE LOW OFFSHORE.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND WILL STAY THAT WAY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER 9Z. AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS
WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR EVEN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES AS WE
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION BEING THE
NORTHEAST. ONE OTHER NOTE...PILOT REPORTS HAVE BEEN COMING IN AROUND
KRDU AND POINTS NORTH FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE ICING FROM 4-12 KFT.

LONG TERM: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA AND
THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS/BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...ELLIS


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