Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 262230
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
230 PM PST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will bring gusty winds this evening, followed by
areas of snow tonight into Monday, producing slick and snowy
travel conditions for the Monday morning commute. Lighter snow
showers may linger into Tuesday. High pressure will then bring
drier conditions with light winds, with cool temperatures through
Wednesday followed by a slow warming trend into next weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

Weak low pressure system is moving onshore into far northern CA
this afternoon and will push through our region overnight into
Monday morning. Snow levels will be down to all valley floors, so
snow will likely produce slick conditions for the morning commute
across the Sierra, including the Tahoe Basin and valleys of
northeastern CA and western Nevada. Folks should allow for extra
time to reach their destinations Monday morning as snow and slick
roads will be slow.

Winter Weather Advisory remains in place for the Tahoe Basin
tonight into Monday morning. Gusty winds 35-45 mph will be
possible this evening and into tonight, with Sierra ridge gusts
up to 80 mph. This gusty wind and higher snow ratios near 15:1
will lead to blowing snow and reduced visibilities, especially for
the passes and backcountry. By late Monday morning, we should see
2 to 6 inches of snow across the Tahoe Basin, and up to 9 inches
of snow west of Highway 89 and along the Sierra Crest at pass
level, including Donner Pass and Echo Summit.

We have also added a winter weather advisory Lassen-Plumas,
Surprise Valley, and northern Washoe County as well. High
resolution models are beginning to show some banded heavier
snowfall across those areas north of Reno to the Oregon Border.
In general, we expect to see light snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches
for the lower valleys around Susanville to Surprise Valley and
heavier amounts up to 6 inches in Lassen-Plumas west of Highway
395.

Lesser amounts are expected around the Reno-Carson-Minden areas
for tonight and Monday morning, as models are showing lesser
precipitation along the I-80 corridor southward into west-central
Nevada. Generally around an inch can be expected for the valley
floors and up to a couple inches for elevations above 5000 feet.
Best chance for snow around the Reno-Carson areas will be between
4am and 8am. Snow levels will be at all valley floors, even a
light accumulation up to an inch is possible for Fernley,
Lovelock, Fallon, Yerington and Hawthorne as well. Further south
into Mono County, lighter amounts are expected as well, 1 to 4
inches.

Light snow showers will continue through the day Monday and into
Monday night, with little to no additional accumulations. For
Tuesday, a very weak disturbance within northwest flow aloft may
produce a few more non-accumulating snow flurries mainly north of
US-50. We will see below average temps for both Monday and Tuesday
mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s, and lows mainly in the teens
to lower 20s. Colder valleys in the Sierra could see temperatures
near or below zero Monday night and Tuesday night. Hoon

.LONG TERM...Wednesday and beyond...

Broad low-amplitude ridging will be in place from the western U.S.
through the eastern Pacific next week. This pattern will provide
warming temperatures across the region with high temperatures near
seasonal averages (mid-50s W.Nevada & mid-40s Sierra valleys). Light
winds will prevail along with weak valley inversions into the start
of the weekend.

An upper low across Alaska will track south and begin to dampen the
ridge allowing clouds to increase and temperatures to cool a few
degrees by Friday. As the trough dips farther south there will be
increasing chances for gusty winds to develop Saturday across ridges
and valleys with moisture also filtering in across northern
California and Nevada. Have continued a trend of increasing
precipitation chances for Saturday evening into Sunday. Ensembles
still show considerable spread in regards to how far south the
trough digs but at this point will favor a cooler, slightly wetter,
and windier trend towards next weekend. Beyond next weekend, there
doesn`t appear to be any large atmospheric river signatures with
most scenarios keeping moisture mainly north of the region. Fuentes

.Aviation...

Valley wind gusts of 30-40 knots will continue through about 03z
this evening while ridges and valleys through the Tahoe Basin should
see winds hold on through midnight. Areas of mountain waves and
turbulence across and downwind of the Sierra ridges will continue
from approx 18z-06z tonight before weakening quickly after 15z Monday
morning.

A weak disturbance will bring chances for snow across much of the
Sierra, northeast California, and northwest Nevada tonight into
Monday morning. Approximate timing for snow and amounts at each
terminal:

KRNO/KCXP: 06z-16z Monday, 1-2 inches
KTRK/KTVL: 03z-20z Monday, 2-4 inches
KMMH: 12z-23z Monday, 1-3 inches

Isolated showers may linger into Tuesday, with a 20% chance of one
moving over a terminal. No significant weather is expected the
remainder of the work week. Fuentes/Dawn

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday NVZ005.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for Lake Tahoe in
     NVZ002.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
     Monday NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for Pyramid Lake
     in NVZ004.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday CAZ070-071.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for Lake Tahoe in
     CAZ072.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
     Monday CAZ072.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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