Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 190136 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
636 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE TAHOE
BASIN NORTHWARD TO HIGHWAY 70 WITH A FEW STRIKES FROM A CELL ALONG
THE CARSON RANGE NEAR GLENBROOK. RADAR SHOWED CONVECTION BEGINNING
TO PUSH OFF THE TAHOE BASIN INTO FAR WESTERN NV AS WEST TO
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WERE DEVELOPING FROM ZEPHYR/OUTFLOW. SO
SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING BY 7 PM FOR THE LAKE TAHOE AREA WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT 8 OR 9 PM ALONG THE
SIERRA FRONT. CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THERE COULD BE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO.

FURTHER SOUTH IN MONO COUNTY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDOWN WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH
LATE EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50. A STRONGER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ALONG WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM...

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO EASTERN NEVADA WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT IS RATHER ANEMIC THUS FAR WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MONO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. PROSPECTS FOR DEEP
CONVECTION ARE LIMITED WITH A DRY SLOT PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA. STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA
WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY.

FOR SATURDAY, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH
PROVIDING SOME BREEZY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY FIRE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AGAIN SATURDAY ACROSS THE SIERRA IN MONO
COUNTY BUT AGAIN DO NOT EXPECT ANY DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. FOR SUNDAY, WEAKER INSTABILITY ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST SHOULD PROVIDE SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS FORMATION ALONG
THE SIERRA BUT SHOULD MINIMIZE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE,
OUR TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA THIS WEEKEND AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN SIERRA
VALLEYS. FUENTES

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A WINTER-LIKE WEATHER
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM FOR STRONG WINDS STARTING MONDAY (GUSTS 40-50 MPH,
STRONGER FOR WIND PRONE AREAS) AND FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOLING
(HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED
TO MONDAY). HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND SNOW LEVELS. SATELLITE TRENDS AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
CONNECTION SO A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED. A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE OVER SIERRA PASSES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. REGARDING SNOW LEVELS, THE COLDEST AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN HEATING OF THE GROUND (THIS TIME OF
YEAR) IS LIKELY TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW LEVEL FORECASTS
WERE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS PACKAGE, WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO
5000-6000 FEET TUESDAY DURING THE MAIN PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS
POTENTIAL TO CREATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. JCM

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE ROCKIES.
IN ITS WAKE...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS LASSEN,
NORTH-CENTRAL WASHOE AND PERSHING COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WERE MAINTAINED. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS ON THURSDAY.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED AS THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND
GEFS ALL SUGGEST A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST
OFF THE US WEST COAST BY SATURDAY. IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
DETAILS...BUT MANY OF THE SOLUTIONS HINT THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE PARENT TROUGH ACROSS THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WOULD BRING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL/SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA AND RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. MYRICK

AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS MONO
COUNTY WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH A 25% CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING KMMH
THROUGH 04Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLDER STORM THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MYRICK

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






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