Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 291103
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
303 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
STORM TRACK REMAINING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF DYNAMICS. WEAK INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR PERIODS OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS MOST AREAS WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE OVER MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. SOUTHERN END
OF TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CA-AZ-NORTHWEST
MEXICO FRI-SAT WITH A DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW TO BRING A SLOW DRYING
TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES ON BACK
SIDE OF UPPER LOW WITH PERIODS OF NORTHEAST WINDS DOWN IN LOWER
VALLEYS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE. WE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT QPF IS GOING TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
AND SHOWER COVERAGE STAYING FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL
A FEW DEGREES, HOWEVER READINGS THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE STILL GOING
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FOG FORMATION THIS
MORNING, ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE WHERE CLOUD BREAKS OCCUR.
CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT NEAR AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AS CLOUDS THIN. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME FLATTENING OF
THE RIDGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BUT KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE FEED AND
STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS
BRUSHING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIP
FARTHER SOUTH TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR OR THE TAHOE BASIN HAS
DROPPED SUBSTANTIALLY, SO WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FROM
THESE AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, RIDGE REBUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA
THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH ALL AREAS REMAINING
DRY. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS NOT VERY SHARP, SO THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP AREAS OF CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA, BUT ALSO LIMIT THE INVERSION STRENGTH.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SIERRA VALLEYS, WITH LIMITED
MIXING TO THE LOWER VALLEYS. FOR MONDAY, SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR
NEAR THE SIERRA, BUT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
IMPROVE MIXING AND PUSH TEMPS HIGHER FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS. GFS MOS
GUIDANCE PUSHED HIGHS ABOVE 65 DEGREES FOR RENO ON MONDAY, BUT WE
DIDN`T GO THAT HIGH SINCE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER MAY PREVENT
FULL MIXING DOWN FROM RIDGE LEVEL (AROUND 700 MB) DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WE KEPT TEMPS ABOVE 60 DEGREES FOR
MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, BASED ON THE DESCRIPTION OF THE RIDGE IN
THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF CIRRUS HAVE PREVENTED FZFG FORMATION AT KTRK SO FAR BUT
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH BREAKS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG AROUND THE TERMINAL. EAST WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA
CREST ARE ALSO A LIMITING FACTOR FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS
MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR FZFG AROUND KTRK INCREASES FOR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS LESS CLOUD COVER AND WEAKER RIDGE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY, WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SPEEDS TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE AT
KCXP BETWEEN 21-03Z. ON FRIDAY, SFC FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH PREVAILING SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. STRONGER
NORTHEAST RIDGE WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF TURBULENCE FROM
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR THE SIERRA. MJD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










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