Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
FXUS65 KREV 282156 CCA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
256 PM PDT SAT MAY 28 2016
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
holiday weekend. Temperatures will begin to warm each day through
the weekend with well above normal temperatures expected by next
week. After a break from thunderstorms midweek, they may return at
the end of the week.
Few changes made through the weekend as thunderstorms have already
begun firing over Mono and Western Mineral Counties early this
afternoon. They will continue into the evening before dissipating
with the loss of heating. Cut back on the storms for the Tahoe Basin
as the lake is acting to keep things somewhat stable. Still could
see a couple storms over the Carson Range to the Pine Nuts.
A similar scenario for Sunday, but there appears to be a little
more instability. In addition, a weak upper wave may provide
additional forcing in the afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible
from Mammoth to Portola, and along and south of Highway 50. Still,
the Tahoe Basin may see less due to the lake`s stabilizing influence
and a zephyr in the afternoon.
Memorial Day, the weakness aloft moves east with much warmer air
aloft. In addition, some drier air works in as well so
thunderstorms are appearing much less likely. Left the mention
near the Sierra Crest of Mono County, but this would be about it.
Temps will continue their warming trend.
Tuesday and Wednesday, high pressure builds over Western NV and
will keep temps warming, with 90s possible in the lower valleys
and near 80 in the Sierra. The EC only slowly moves the ridge east
with temps even warmer by late week while the GFS is faster with
some cooling by Friday and Saturday. Went with a blend and only
have Saturday cooling, and kept temps very warm through the
As far as convection late week, it looks like there will be at least
a day or two, but the question is when. Removed pops Wed as the
models are still showing a decent cap aloft. However, by Thursday,
the GFS weakens the cap with thunderstorms possible from Mono County
to the Pine Nuts. The EC keeps the cap in place into Friday with
storms over the weekend. The going forecast had storms Thu/Fri
similar to the GFS so left them alone for continuity. The bottom
line is we have high confidence in thunderstorms at some point late
next week, but low confidence as to the days they will occur.
VFR conditions expected through Sunday outside of isolated areas of
showers and thunderstorms. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will
begin to diminish this evening with most activity ending by 03-04Z.
Another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
again be possible Sunday afternoon with the best chances mainly
south of a KTVL-KNFL line. Across the Sierra, KMMH will see the best
chance for TS with about a 30% likelihood Sunday afternoon.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing small hail, brief heavy
rainfall, and outflow winds up to 45 mph. Fuentes
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