Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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777
FXUS65 KREV 052256
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
256 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VALLEY INVERSIONS. A STEADY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN CA SEEING FREEZING
FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN CA/NV THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE HELPING TO
MELT OFF SNOW FROM AROUND THE VALLEYS WITH LESS COVERAGE OF FOG
EXPECTED TONIGHT. WE LIMITED THE AREAS FOR FREEZING FOG TONIGHT
TO THE SIERRA VALLEYS, INCLUDING AROUND TRUCKEE-MARTIS VALLEY. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
VALLEY INVERSIONS AND DRY CONDITIONS. WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RUNOFF IN THE RIVERS
AND STREAMS. HOON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, THE RIDGE MAY
FLATTEN A BIT (SOME MODELS DISAGREE) AS A DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUT IT WILL NOT MATTER MUCH EITHER WAY
THIS FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON TUESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SLIP OFF TO THE EAST. THE
LIGHT SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT RIDGE LEVEL BEHIND THE RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY IMPROVED MIXING (AND HENCE THE WARMER
TEMPS).

FOR NOW, MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN VALLEYS WHICH IS NOT CLOSE TO RECORDS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS (BUT MAY BE FOR SOME SIERRA SITES). HOWEVER, AN INCREASE
IN RIDGE LEVEL FLOW COULD BRING A 3-5 DEGREE BUMP IN HIGHS (BETTER
MIXING) WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHS CLOSE TO RECORDS FOR WESTERN NEVADA
VALLEYS.

FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FARTHER AS MANY MODEL
RUNS SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER, THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE RUNNING INTO A MEAN WESTERN NORTH
AMERICAN RIDGE SO IT LOOKS FAIRLY MODEST AT THIS TIME. ALSO, MOST
PROGS CURRENTLY KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY/MOISTURE FEED NORTH OF THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SO IT WOULD BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

LOOKING BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD TO NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK (FEB 13-15), CURRENT MOISTURE TAP/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
TOOLS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES KEEP ANY MOISTURE PLUMES AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE REGION WITH ANY IMPULSES TRENDING ON THE
WEAKER SIDE WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, AND
MODEST WINDS ALOFT (15-25 KTS GUSTING TO ~30 KTS), TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH, BRINGING AN
INCREASE TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE INCOMING CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS, HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A 50-60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE MARTIS
VALLEY (KTRK) AND SIERRA VALLEY. SNYDER/DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



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