Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 020342
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
840 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...

ANOTHER SCENIC POST-STORM SUNSET OUT THE WINDOW THIS EVENING. TODAY
WAS ANOTHER ACTIVE TSTM DAY, JUST IN DIFFERENT SPOTS - WITH
MARKLEEVILLE AND THE WASHINGTON FIRE AREA SEEING TORRENTIAL RAINS
AND SOME MUDSLIDES. INSTABILITY WAS IMPRESSIVE ON THE 0Z RENO
SOUNDING WITH CAPE RANGING FROM 1200 TO 2300 DEPENDING ON HOW YOU
MEASURE IT.

SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR MAINLY FROM CENTRAL NEVADA
OVER INTO MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS
CONGEALED INTO A LARGE MASS OF RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS.
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS OFF TO THE WEST AT A SLOW PACE, AND IT`S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THESE CELLS COULD REACH THE SIERRA. AM GOING TO
CONTINUE CHANCES FOR TSTMS OVERNIGHT MAINLY SOUTH OF A MARKLEEVILLE
TO GABBS LINE AS GUIDANCE SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING
TROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COUPLED WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES.

REST OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. IN GENERAL LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD ANOTHER ACTIVE TSTM DAY TOMORROW WITH
COPIOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE. ONE NOTE - MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT
INCREASES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING WHICH COULD HELP GENERATE
CLOUD COVER AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. POSSIBLE BUT UNCERTAIN.
CS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VORTICITY CENTER MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAKER FORCING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV DELAYED THE
FORMATION OF THE FIRST CELLS UNTIL AFTER 2 PM.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER
3 PM, INITIALLY FAVORING ALPINE AND NORTHERN MONO COUNTIES THEN
BUILDING EAST ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50, COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SPARSE, BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME INCREASED ACTIVITY BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM DUE TO INCREASED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE ZEPHYR, AND OUTFLOWS
FROM THE FIRST ROUND OF CELLS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND OUTFLOW
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
LOW FOR HEAVY RAIN TO HIT THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED FLOODING
YESTERDAY.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MINERAL AND MONO
COUNTIES AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST.

FOR THURSDAY, THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN CA-WESTERN NV. MODEL SOUNDINGS INCREASE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.25 INCH, SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE WITH INITIAL
CONVECTION LIKELY TO BEGIN A FEW HOURS EARLIER IN THE DAY,
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN SIERRA.
HOWEVER, THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND EARLIER ONSET MAY ALSO LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AND RAINFALL INTENSITY. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY, WE ARE NOT
PLANNING ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AREAS THAT ARE MORE
PRONE TO FLOODING DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAIN, STEEP TERRAIN OR
WILDFIRE BURN SCARS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL
IF HEAVIER CELLS DEVELOP.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, SOME CLEARING AND SUBSIDENCE IS
INDICATED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AFTER THE EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. THIS CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AGAIN ALONG THE SIERRA AND SPREAD
INTO WESTERN NV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORCING APPEARS
LIMITED WITH SOME CAPPING TO OVERCOME, SO THE FIRST STORMS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
LOWER VALLEYS OF WEST CENTRAL NV POSSIBLY REACHING 105 DEGREES
AGAIN ON THURSDAY WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.
THICKER CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT HEATING A BIT, MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. THE MOIST AIR MASS WITH AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT
FEW NIGHTS, GENERALLY FROM MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MJD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE TWO MODES IN THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL BE WETTER WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHILE THE
SECOND WILL BE DRIER AND TRENDING COOLER BACK TOWARD SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

4TH OF JULY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WRAP MOISTURE
AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA. AS A RESULT, PWATS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. GFS/EC/NAM ALL SHOW A WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE PATTERN WITH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALSO,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED ACTIVITY ALONG A
MODERATE ZEPHYR THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
RATHER SLOW RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLASH FLOODING
WHICH IS THE BIGGEST THREAT THIS WEEKEND. THOSE WITH HOLIDAY PLANS
OUTDOORS WILL WANT TO PAY ATTENTION TO WARNING PRODUCTS AS THE
SITUATION MAY CHANGE RAPIDLY. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT TO
THOSE OUTDOORS AND ON AREA LAKES.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONDITIONS BECOME DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. STILL, THERE IS
AMPLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE SO A MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS WARRANTED. DRY AIR REALLY WORKS IN BY
WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING ALOFT. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY THRU 04Z. CHANCE FOR IMPACT 40
PCT AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND LESS THAN 20
PCT ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS FRI-SUN DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



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