Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 240745
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
345 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow-moving cold front will drift southward over the Mid
Atlantic Monday. High pressure works across the Great Lakes into
New England Tuesday-Wednesday with our temperatures returning
closer to normal. Another front approaches Friday from the
northwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 324 AM EDT Monday...

Area of showers and storms have weakened east of the Blue Ridge
early this morning with residual showers back over Southeast WV into
the NC mountains behind sfc trough. Will see less coverage today as
deeper moisture shift southeast with front arriving across the
central Appalachians. SPC has pretty much cleared the area of severe
threat and most models are in agreement on limited coverage, with
isolated across the WV mountains with frontal convergence and in the
far eastern CWA closer to lee trough and deeper moisture.

Expect a little lower humidity today with west winds still providing
a very warm day with highs ranging from the 80s west, to lower to
mid 90s east.

Tonight, axis of upper trough exits east while sfc front slides
south into NC. Question remains how far south the front goes along
with deep moisture. Appears any convection this afternoon should
fade by mid evening. Skies stay clear to partly cloudy with lows in
the 60s west, to lower 70s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Monday...

Looking a little drier Tue-Wed with northwest flow aloft and
rising heights while sfc high wedges southward into our area from
the northeast. Still could see some isolated showers or storms in
the southern Blue Ridge and NC foothills/piedmont Tue, then a little
more southeast flow may allow for convection Wednesday to fire
further north along the Blue Ridge and foothills but confidence is
low as latest models are trending drier.

Return flow continues a little more Thursday ahead of next front
moving into the Ohio Valley, but appears coverage will be isolated
to widely scattered.

Temperature will be close to normal this period, which is a little
cooler than what we have been experiencing.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1100 AM EDT Sunday...

A cold front will make its way across the mid Atlantic on
Friday, triggering more organized/widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity. Latest run of the weather forecast models
indicate that the front will clear our area to the south by
Saturday morning, bringing drier air in its wake. Have therefore
lowered rain chances for next weekend, though isolated
showers/storms cannot be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Monday...

Expect moderate to heavier showers/storms at ROA/LYH at the
start of the taf diminishing at ROA by 07z, and LYH by 08z.

Showers will be diminishing across the region by 09z, with
mainly VFR expected outside showers.

Will have to watch for fog if we clear out but plenty of high
clouds should prevent that from happening.

Low threat of showers/storms Monday so not including in the
tafs, and keeping it VFR.

Winds will remain WSW-WNW 5-10kts through most of the TAF valid
period, but low end gusts are expected after 14Z Monday mainly
west of the Blue Ridge.

Aviation Extended Discussion...

A slow-moving cold front should slowly sag south of our region
Monday night. This frontal boundary should stall to the south
by Tuesday and eventually return northward as a cold front later
in the week. Although convection should become more isolated
for most of this period, the weather patten will still remain
unsettled to some extent. High pressure wedging southward on
Wednesday could bring some MVFR/IFR ceilings, which should
quickly vanish by Thursday. Aside from any early morning fog and
isolated convection, VFR conditions should prevail through most
of this week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...RAB/WP


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