Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 261743
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
920 AM PST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTAL
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILL AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH AREAS OF LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING FROST IN PORTIONS OF
THE VALLEYS AND DESERTS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WEAKER WINDS WITH
CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COULD BRING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS...WITH WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING GUST WINDS
TODAY...CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY IN SOME AREAS. THE FAVORED AREAS IN
THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH DURING THIS EPISODE...PER THE LOCAL
WRF.

THE COLD DRY NORTHERLY FLOW COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF LATE NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MORNING FROST IN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS AND DESERTS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT THE LOWEST LEVELS LOOKS
SIMILAR TOMORROW MORNING IN COMPARISON TO TODAY. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MONDAY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO BE RATHER COOL. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
VARIATION BETWEEN THE MODELS...INCLUDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
LOW. WE DO PLAN ON SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LOW SNOW LEVELS AT
TIMES...BELOW 3000 FEET...AND PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. VERY
HARD TO PIN DOWN THE MODELS TO A CONSISTENT SOLUTION LATELY...AS
SOMETIMES THE GFS HAS BEEN FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...AND VICE VERSA.
UNTIL THOSE TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES ARE RESOLVED...THE CURRENT
FORECAST MAINTAINS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD WITH
TIMING SKEWED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARD TO THE WINDS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO SUPPORTS AN
INDICATION OF RAIN POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
LOW...SNOW LEVELS LOWERED...POPS INCREASED...AND WINDS
STRENGTHENED.

&&

.AVIATION...
261630Z...SKC CONDS WITH P6SM VIS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WITH LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS 30-40KT THROUGH SAT
MORNING...MAINLY IN AND BELOW THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAIN
CANYONS...INLAND EMPIRE...AND NE WIND PRONE AREAS OF THE COACHELLA
VALLEY. THESE WINDS MAY REACH VCNTY
KSNA...KONT...KSBD...KRAL...KCNO...KPSP...AND KTRM WITH LLWS AT
TIMES. STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY
ON THE COASTAL SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
830 AM...NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN BETWEEN
OCEANSIDE AND SAN CLEMENTE WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KT
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BEACHES...
830 AM...A LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED SURF OF
3-5 FEET...WITH LOCAL SETS TO 6 FEET...AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES TODAY. SWELL AND SURF WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILL AREAS IN ORANGE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EXPAND INTO THE COASTAL
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS IN RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. A COOL ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOWEST
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES AROUND 15 PERCENT... MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF THE
VALLEYS AND INLAND ORANGE COUNTY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&


.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SATURDAY FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
     EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR THE SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON PST SATURDAY FOR THE SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE...JT








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