Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 091155
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
355 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. LESS WINDY
BUT CONTINUED WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH
POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SLOW
COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS...THEN WARMING FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAKENING OFFSHORE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH THE WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN PORTIONS OF THE INLAND COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY
AREAS AROUND 90. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
BREAK THE DAILY RECORDS FOR SEVERAL COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

SLOW COOLING FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WEAKENS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE.

WARMER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW. THERE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH
CONTINUING GREATER THAN AVERAGE SPREAD IN THE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...
091000Z...CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE FOOTHILLS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z THIS
MORNING. POCKETS OF LLWS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY AS A SURFACE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS UNDER PREVAILING
OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCAL STRONGER
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS AND
BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND TEN PERCENT
AND THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS TODAY. HOWEVER...FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. THEREFORE...NO FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE IN EFFECT OR ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLIMATE

THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR SANTA ANA FIRE STATION ON MONDAY OF 75
WAS THE WARMEST DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED DURING
THE WINTER SEASON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 73 WAS SET IN 2009.
THREE OF THE PREVIOUS 10 WARMEST DAILY WINTER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE SET IN 2015...WITH TWO IN 1983 DURING THE
1982-83 EL NINO. RECORDS GO BACK TO 1916.

LOCATIONS WHERE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE SET TODAY BASED
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...

LOCATION          FORECAST   RECORD
NEWPORT BEACH        80        77 IN 2002
SAN DIEGO            83        77 IN 2008
VISTA                89        81 IN 2012
CHULA VISTA          87        83 IN 1954
ESCONDIDO            91        86 IN 1991
EL CAJON             89        86 IN 2006
RAMONA               86        83 IN 1988
ALPINE               84        82 IN 1991


.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM


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