Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 111630
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY AND ON
SATURDAY...WITH PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND DEVELOPING AFTER THE MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS CLEAR.  AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY...SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
ORANGE...SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST.  AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAINS UNDER DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A FEW COASTAL LOW CLOUDS LINGERING AT
THIS TIME.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EXPAND BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
DEVELOPING.  THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE SIMILAR TO OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILING.  THIS GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER TONIGHT.

THIS RIDGE WILL THEN LIFT TO OUR NORTH FOR SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART
OF THE WORK WEEK...ALLOWING SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD BACK
INTO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME...THE INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL FOR SUNDAY...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...ESPECIALLY IN
SAN DIEGO COUNTY.  THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS MODELS SHOW AN EASTERLY
WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION.  IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE HAVING
A BIT OFF ISSUES TIMING THIS WAVE...BUT STILL THEN THESE DAYS WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN
SUNDAY.  THE MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING WITH LESS MOISTURE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT COULD SEE SOME RESIDUAL ACTIVITY THESE
DAYS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
111500Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS 25-30 SM INLAND THIS
MORNING...WITH BASES 1600-2000 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2500 FT
MSL...WILL CLEAR TO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 1700 UTC.
1700-12/0100 UTC...SKC AND UNRESTRICTED VIS. 12/0100-1400
UTC...STRATUS GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND 25-30 SM WITH BASES 1300-1600
FT MSL...TOPS 1900-2200 FT MSL...AND LOCAL VIS 2-5SM.
MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL NOT REACH KONT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CIG HEIGHTS FOR TAF SITES...AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF STRATUS ARRIVAL TO KSAN...KCRQ AND KSNA.

MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SKC
BECOMING FEW-SCT CLDS AOA 25000 FT MSL AFTER 12/0000 UTC.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...LOCAL WRF HAS BEEN BACKING OFF ON POSSIBLE 25 KT NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR SATURDAY...AND SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ISSUANCE SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THE MOMENT. THUS...NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON






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