Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 301905
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
205 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANT COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION ARE CURRENTLY EXITING
OUR EXTREME EASTERN PARISHES THIS AFTN. THE BOUNDARY HAS WORKED
OVER OUR ATMOSPHERE PRETTY GOOD TODAY BUT REMNANT MCV CONTINUES TO
SPIN ACROSS NE TX ATTM. STARTING TO SEE SOME AIRMASS RECOVERY
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND EVEN STARTING TO SEE SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL TX CLOSER TO
THE MCV ITSELF. WITH LOW CINH IN PLACE NOT TO MENTION THE
MOISTURE... HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE FFA IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM
THIS EVENING. THE HRRR DOES DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FILLING MCV THIS
EVENING AND TRIES TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AND THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS THIS AREA WAS MOSTLY
MISSED BY PREVIOUS DAYTIME CONVECTION. DID NOT EXPAND THE WATCH TO
INCLUDE DEEP EAST TEXAS OR THE REST OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AS AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR HAVE MISSED OUT ON RAINFALL
OVER THE LAST 3 DAYS...AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NE TX HAS AND
FOR THAT REASON...THEY SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE A GOOD INCH TO TWO
INCH RAIN IF THEY DO SEE THAT THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT AS OF 18Z
WAS ANALYZED FROM NW AR INTO SOUTHERN OK/N CENTRAL TX AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD MAKE GOOD PROGRESS INTO SW AR/NW LA AND NE TX
OVERNIGHT.

MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING
SLOWLY INTO EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR BY MIDDAY SUN AND INTO THE TENN
VALLEY BY MIDDAY MON. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF THE REMNANT COLD FRONT WHICH MAY STALL LATE TNGT/SUN ACROSS OUR
SE ZONES. KEPT POPS HIGHEST IN OUR SE ZONES FOR SUN THROUGH
MONDAY. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE WESTERLIES ON
TUESDAY EAST OF OUR REGION AND THAT SHOULD KEEP THE ANY PRECIP
EAST OF OUR REGION AS WELL. EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEYOND TUE IS A DRY ONE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
IN THE WEEK...GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO
LATE WORK WEEK.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION TODAY SURROUNDING OFFICES...PRELIMS
TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 138 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

AVIATION...
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH KMLU...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OVER E TX POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE...WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS
AND AMD FOR TEMPO GROUPS AS NECESSARY. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT/VRB WINDS
TODAY TO GIVE WAY TO N TO NWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS AFTER FROPA. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  81  63  81 /  40  20  10  20
MLU  66  82  63  80 /  50  40  30  30
DEQ  55  78  59  78 /  40  20  10  20
TXK  60  79  61  79 /  40  20  10  20
ELD  62  80  60  79 /  40  30  20  30
TYR  62  80  61  81 /  40  20  10  20
GGG  62  80  62  81 /  40  20  10  20
LFK  65  82  63  83 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

13


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