Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KSHV 251120
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
620 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.AVIATION...
Terminals slow to deteriorate this morning, likely due to the
high level cloudiness streaming across the Four-State region.
Nonetheless, light MVFR fog and MVFR cigs are still plausible near
sunrise before diminishing by late morning. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon-into early evening,
courtesy an upper level high pressure streaming in low level
moisture thus making way for sea-breeze convection. Have inserted
TEMPOs for -TSRA in trying to pinpoint best timing for the
precipitation. Otherwise, light and variable winds this morning
which will veer to the south southwest this afternoon with speeds
of 5-10 mph.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 510 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Partly to mostly cloudy skies perhaps keeping the southern tier fog
a little better in check this morning with similar temps and dew
points in the mid to upper 70s for all but areas North of I-30
where low 70s are common. We look ready set go to see some decent
coverage of rain again today with a tropical plume of moisture
overhead rotating in under the Bermuda ridge. Heating should even
commence some development before lunch time and all afternoon
looking at the HRRR. The NAM is likewise with similar QPF by late
morning and then really increasing early to mid afternoon. Air
should stabilize behind any rainfall with chances diminishing to
20 percent which will linger overnight.

We are still looking good for high chance or even likely for
Thunderstorms on our Friday. Coverage will settle out around 20 to
30 coverage for much of the extended at this time. It is not
evident for anything more right now, but both GFS and Euro agree
on similar spotty coverage. The WPC has increased our totals a bit
but still below 2 inches for the 5-7 day outlooks with a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall today and tomorrow for parts of our
cwa. The SPC has us in the general category both days with nothing
widespread severe.

As we keep an eye to the tropics, the 7 day QPF outlook also
shows 7-9 inch totals over much of FL`s west coast and then up
into GA. The GFS and Euro are similar on any path with Euro still
much deeper and stronger on the low. So we will hope for the best
there as the system is still quite unorganized near Puerto Rico,
but sporting an 80 percent formation chance through 5 days from
the NHC which of course will bear watching. Look for more heat to
build with mid 90s again for the early and middle of next work
week. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  75  91  74 /  50  20  60  30
MLU  93  74  92  73 /  50  20  50  20
DEQ  92  73  88  72 /  30  20  60  30
TXK  92  74  89  72 /  40  20  60  30
ELD  92  73  90  73 /  40  20  50  20
TYR  91  74  88  73 /  40  20  60  30
GGG  91  74  89  73 /  50  20  60  30
LFK  91  75  90  74 /  50  20  60  20

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/24



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.