Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 211836
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
136 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR THE FOUR STATE AREA THROUGH THE
TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT 22/18Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF MIST/BR
NEAR DAYBREAK FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WITH SOME BRIEF HIGHER
SPEEDS TO 7-10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 8-12 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WAS CLOSE TO I-40 IN OK/AR AS OF 21/15Z. FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND DO EXPECTED SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
LATEST NAM HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE RAIN CHANCES BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
SKY/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER
OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. /09/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER TX PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH HAS BROUGHT
UNSEASONAL WARMTH TO THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MO...GETS PUSHED SWD IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH INTO OHIO VALLEY. MAY SEE SOME MID 90S THIS AFTN WHEN
CALCULATING A COUPLE EXTRA DEGREES OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WITH
APPROACHING FRONT. BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT
REMAINING TO THE EAST...AND WITH LACK OF GULF FLOW...EXPECT
MOISTURE TO REMAIN VERY MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION AS THIS FRONT
PROGRESSES TOWARDS AREA...ESPECIALLY DURG THE NOCTURNAL TIME FRAME
OF FROPA. MAY SEE SOME ISOLD LATE AFTN CONVECTION OVER SW AR AND
POSSIBLY SE OK TODAY ACCORDING TO NAM. GFS KEEPS MID LVLS TOO DRY
WITH FRONT. DESPITE VERY SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS...THIS COOLER AIR
WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE N/NW UPPER LVL
FLOW. THIS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS...THUS MAKING THE DISTINCTION BTWN MOSTLY CLEAR AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES RATHER UNCLEAR FOR THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...
REMAINDER OF ATMOSPHERE WELL TO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN WAY OF
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. TOWARDS END OF WEEK...SOME MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO SURGE NWD ALONG LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...SO INTRODUCING ISOLD
POPS FOR MAINLY LA PORTIONS OF THE AREA. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  66  87  61  84 /  10  20   0   0   0
MLU  94  63  83  58  82 /  10  20   0   0   0
DEQ  89  59  82  56  79 /  20  20   0   0   0
TXK  90  61  83  57  81 /  20  20   0   0   0
ELD  91  61  82  56  81 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  93  67  87  62  84 /  10  20  10   0   0
GGG  93  67  88  62  84 /  10  20  10   0   0
LFK  93  67  90  64  86 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



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