Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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834
FXUS64 KSHV 111138
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
538 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 11/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 AROUND 12/00Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...INCLUDING KLFK...SHOULD SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.

/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS TIME WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THROUGH LATE
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WHILE POINTS NORTH OF THE FRONT TO LINGER IN THE
MID 60S.

FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR TO
AROUND 50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA PROVIDING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY EVENING.

SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY AIR ALONG WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. CLOUDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER-FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL. RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BECAUSE MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
REMAIN POST FRONTAL...WILL GO WITH MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AS UPPER-TROUGH DEEPENS AS IT EXITS TO THE EAST.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S TO LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  43  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  71  41  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  67  35  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  67  38  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  37  64  36 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  74  44  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  74  43  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  77  50  73  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09



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