Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 230838

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
338 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

The UA low that provided portions of the Four-State Region with
rainfall and reports of small hail yesterday was propagating east-
southeast across the Lower Mississippi Valley early this morning,
thus commencing to exit the region and leaving the FA on the
backside of the system. There was enough instability to aid in the
generation of rather light rain showers which affected kmlu late
last night/earlier this morning but has since dissipated. However,
low-mid level CIGS have streamed in/developed and earlier metar
at kmlu reported light rainfall falling from the stratus deck, as
well as patchy light fog. Model solutions hint at this cloud cover
taking its time to burn off throughout the day /so can not
discount a trace of rainfall/ but should see cloud cover finally
scattering out by early-mid aftn. Despite better insolation by
this aftn, temps will still struggle to reach the 70 degree mark
due to a nearby sfc ridge that will maintain the cool and dry
airmass ushered in by the fropa yesterday. Additionally, the sfc
ridge may promote a slightly tightened pressure gradient this
aftn, which could lead to northwest wind speeds of 10-15 mph.
Tonight, clear skies and declining wind speeds will lead to
excellent radiational cooling. This will allow for another chilly
night with overnight lows dipping into the upper 30s across
portions of southeast OK and southwest AR to the lower to middle
40s elsewhere.

Tomorrow, sfc winds will gradually return to a srly flow but it will
take some time for the lower levels of the atmosphere to recover
from the dry conditions /PWATS less than 0.50 inches/. The passage
of a shortwave amplitude UA ridge will allow for daytime temps
tomorrow to rebound into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Moisture return
will be more noticeable come Tuesday morning given the persistent
upslope sfc regime. This surge in moisture will be just in time
for the next opportunity for rainfall on Wednesday provided by a
relatively quickly moving UA trough. It is interesting to note
that as of late, model runs have increased rainfall amounts a bit
associated with this disturbance /especially across the northern
zones/, as well as exhibited this disturbance to be a bit more
positively titled thus sharpening the southwest flow aloft. Best
UL dynamics appear to be north of the CWA which is further
validated by the Storm Prediction 15% contour of severe wx to be
just northwest of the region. Nonetheless, we will continue to
monitor how long term solutions trend this disturbance in the
coming days.

The next disturbance that has been persistently exhibited to be
our next possible severe wx maker will occur this weekend. Some
uncertainties still exist amongst the models such as timing, as
only a few days ago it appeared that Friday will be main day this
disturbance will affect the area, but now it has gotten pushed to
Saturday/Sunday. Keeping in mind that the fine details still needs
to be ironed out, attm, this disturbance is anticipated to move
east-southeast across the Southern Rockies on Friday and then
eject northeast to across the Central/Northern Plains during the
weekend while concurrently deepening and closing off. Significant
sharpening of the southwest flow aloft will take place and the UL
support will increase across the region. Its associated cold
front will be the focus for precip which will move in from
northwest to southeast. Depending on which model is analyzed,
rainfall will have exited the region either Monday morning /per
the GFS/ or Monday aftn /per the ECMWF/ of next week.


SHV  71  45  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  68  46  79  51 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  71  39  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  70  44  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  69  41  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  71  45  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  71  43  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  72  45  83  57 /   0   0   0   0




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