Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KSHV 230000 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
600 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH
THE LAST OF THE BKN CU FIELD OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT BY MID-EVENING. EXTENSIVE ELEVATED CIGS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH THESE CIGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OVER W TX. IN FACT...SCT -SHRA SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE CIGS
AFTER 09Z OVER NE TX/SW AR/SE OK AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NW LA...WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO SATURATE THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN
THROUGH/BEYOND DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER WRN AR
AND E TX THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT E INTO SCNTRL
AR/NCNTRL LA AND DEEP E TX OVERNIGHT...WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS AND
PATCHY FG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD N INTO DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA
AFTER 06Z S OF THE BNDRY. THIS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE LFK/MLU
TERMINALS THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...BEFORE THE BNDRY IS
REINFORCED BACK SWD FOR THE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED -SHRA AFTER
12Z FOR THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS...WITH THESE -SHRA EXPECTED TO
SPREAD E INTO N LA BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN MVFR
CIGS/REDUCED VSBYS. CAN/T RULE OUT SCT TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG/S OF
THE SFC FRONT OVER NCNTRL LA DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER SHIFTING SWD FOR THE AFTERNOON. LT/VRB
TO LIGHT WNW WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NNE 6-12KTS WITH THE FROPA
TUESDAY. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PREFRONTAL TROUGH ADVANCING INTO NE TX THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING WITH THIS TROUGH...TEMPS OVER NE TX HAVE RISEN
TO AROUND 70. COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF I-35...DRY SLOTTING AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL MINIMIZE ANY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS NE
TX/SE OK THIS EVE...ALTHOUGH MAY INTERACT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
FURTHER EAST FOR POSSIBLE LIMITED CONVECTION. A SLOWER MOVG FRONT
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW TSTMS TO ALSO DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL LA ON EARLY TUE. SFC LOW TO MOVE WELL EAST OF MS RIVER
VALLEY...WHILE UPPER LVL SYSTEM DIGS SWD AS MAIN UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF OVER MO/IA TONIGHT...WITH OVERRUNNING RAIN WITH DEEP SW FLOW
OVER SHALLOW COOLER AIR MASS PREVAILS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MAY LINGER THRU DAYBREAK WED...WITH A FEW
FLURRIES MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN NOT OUT OF QUESTION SO LEFT IN 20
POPS. HOWEVER...ATTM APPEARS THAT MOISTURE MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT
IN ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION LAYER. ONCE CLOUDS FINALLY CLEAR OUT OF
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING COULD HAMPER THE
EFFORT TO REACH FRZG. A DEEPER COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE FRIDAY.
MOISTURE LIMITED SO FOR NOW WILL JUST PUT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AREAWIDE. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL WILL BE ON TAP FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  51  38  51  33 /  20  40  40  10   0
MLU  52  55  42  53  32 /  30  70  60  10   0
DEQ  43  48  32  49  29 /  20  30  20  10   0
TXK  47  49  36  49  31 /  20  40  20  10   0
ELD  48  50  38  51  31 /  30  40  40  10   0
TYR  48  49  37  50  34 /  20  40  10  10   0
GGG  48  49  37  51  33 /  20  40  20  10   0
LFK  51  53  38  52  34 /  20  50  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.