Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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433
FXUS64 KSHV 222218
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
418 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level closed low pressure system continued to spin over
extreme Northeast Louisiana and Southeast Arkansas with its center
over Central Mississippi. Moisture wrapping around the back side
of the system was helping produce a large area of showers and
isolated thunderstorms. On the surface a large associated surface
low pressure system covered much of the Southeast States and
was providing a tight pressure gradient over the central sections
of the country since surface high pressure covered much of the
plains and into West Texas. Will keep the lake wind advisory in
effect until 9 PM CST for the entire Four States Area and
the Eastern half of the region from 9 PM - 1 AM CST Monday morning
since the pressure gradient will still be tight as the surface low
pressure system shifts East along with the upper level low
pressure center. The winds will taper off near midnight and into
the early morning hours Monday. Wrap around cloud cover will
decrease as drier air associated with surface high pressure and
ridging aloft into the start of the work week. Temperatures will
also warm into the week as the surface and ridge of high pressure
move East allowing more southerly winds. A large and broad trough
of low pressure drops down across the western 2/3rds of the
country during the first half of the week which should keep any
rain chances for our forecast area confined to the more southern
zones for late Tuesday. The forecast area will remain on the
Southern axis of the upper trough aloft resulting a nearly zonal
flow for late week.

Boaters venturing out tonight should be very cautious due to the
rough chop on area lakes, rivers and bayous. Small boats will be
more prone to capsizing. High profile vehicles will also be
affected by the Northwest to North winds.  /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1216 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

AVIATION...
Scattered showers continue developing north of the I-20 corridor
early this afternoon in response to a upper level trough moving
ovhd. Seeing some lightning across portions of Central Ar and this
will be a possibility as we go through the remainder of the
afternoon and early evening...mainly at the TXK/ELD and MLU
terminals. Strong cold front currently moving through our NE TX
terminals with strong pressure gradient ahead of and behind the
boundary. Could easily see winds exceed 30kts in gusts mainly in
the wake of the frontal boundary which should be completely
through our terminal airspace by 23/00z. Post frontal ceilings
could briefly become MVFR from west to east this afternoon/evening
before ceilings clear late tonight from west to east. Winds should
decouple as well from west to east during the overnight hours with
strong gusts continuing at the ELD/MLU terminals through 23/12z.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  64  47  74 /  10   0   0  10
MLU  44  61  42  70 /  30   0   0  10
DEQ  37  61  40  70 /  10   0   0  10
TXK  40  62  44  71 /  10   0   0  10
ELD  41  61  42  70 /  30   0   0  10
TYR  41  67  49  74 /  10   0   0  10
GGG  42  64  47  74 /  10   0   0  10
LFK  43  68  48  77 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CST Monday for ARZ060-061-071>073.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ARZ050-051-
     059-070.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CST Monday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06/13



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