Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 180825
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TUTT PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ONE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERACTION OF TUTT WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE
IS RESULTING IN VERY DEEP CONVECTION WITH NMRS OVERSHOOTING TOPS OVER
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH ACTIVE WX ON TAP NEXT 36 HRS. STEERING FLOW
WILL BE WEAK 8-10 KT SUPPORTING SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WHICH MAY
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND SOME FLOODING.

LEADING EDGE OF DRY STABLE AIR IS ALONG 58W AS SEEN ON GOES-
SOUNDER DATA AND WILL ENTER THE AREA FRI EVENING. IMPROVING WX
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT WITH A REALLY NICE DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF NEXT WAVE NOT EXPECTED
NOW UNTIL MON NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCES OF RAIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH WED AS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
EXIT THE AREA. MUCH DRYER AIR EXPECTED FOR THE END OF NEXT WORK
WEEK AS NORTHEASTERLIES ESTABLISH OVR THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA THIS MRNG BCMG NRMS SHRA/TSRA
INTERIOR AND W PR IN AFT WI OBSC MTNS. SHRA/TSRA WL INCR NR
TNCM/TKPK MID-DAY DECR BY EVE. VFR AT TAF SITES XCP MVFR/PSBL
IFR DURING SHRA/TSRA. NMRS SHRA/TSRA EAST PR/USVI TONITE.
WIND E 8-15 KT BCMG ESE BY AFT AND ESE 10-20 KT ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND TO AROUND 15 KT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS GENERALLY 10-KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FT XCPT HIGHER
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  88  80 /  20  60  60  10
STT  82  82  82  82 /  30  60  60  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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