Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 050242
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1042 PM AST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTED MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. BREEZE CONDITIONS
CONTINUED OVER THE REGION WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS SAME WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST GRIDS TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH WEATHER
DRYING UP IN THE MORNING HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST TO E-NE AT 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO AROUND 20KTS
AFTER 05/14Z AND GUSTY. OVERNIGHT WINDS UP TO FL020 ARE EXPECTED TO
BE EASTERLY BETWEEN 15-25 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...BOUY 41043 AROUND 180 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
SHOWED SEAS BETWEEN 7 TO 8 FEET. MEANWHILE...BUOY 42060 IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WAS SHOWING ALSO SEAS OF 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 7 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 23 KNOTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM AST WED MAR 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER CONVERGENCE ALOFT
WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WITH SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS SW PUERTO RICO...
BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL SO FAR. WINDS WERE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER
CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND BELOW TO NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM
TIME TO TIME AS SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUES
TO PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED...IF ANY...EACH DAY DUE TO A STRONG CAP AT 700-800MB.
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WORKWEEK AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP COLLAPSES WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

AVIATION....VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT IN PASSING SHRA
OVER THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED
BELOW FL250.

MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE CHOPPY TO ROUGH
CONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECTED SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND WINDS OF 15-23 KT
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  86  74  86 /  20  20  10  10
STT  74  86  74  85 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

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