Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 010358
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
958 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE INTERIOR WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...HIGH WIND EVENT FOR THE
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT OFF AND RUNNING THIS EVENING. THE MOST
PRONE AREAS OF DAVIS COUNTY HAVE ALREADY SEEN SEVERAL GUSTS IN
THE 60S AND 70S WITH POWER OUTAGE REPORTED. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
CHANGE BETWEEN SLC AND CENTRAL WYOMING ALREADY UP TO ROUGHLY
10 MB...WHICH IS A BIT STRONGER THAN THAN EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

THE NEAR 700MB EASTERLY FLOW LIKELY TOOK THE EXPECTED JUMP EARLY
THIS EVENING BASED ON THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THE 700MB WINDS WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR 40 KNOTS
...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 50 KTS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. THE TIGHTENING OF THE STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
RIDGE CREST OF THE NORTHERN WASATCH RANGE WILL HELP DEFLECT
MOMENTUM DOWNWARD AND ENHANCE THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE PEAK WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER A
BROADER AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...WITH THE FAR NORTHERN WASATCH
FRONT AND THE CACHE VALLEY BECOMING MORE ENGAGED IN THE EVENT AT
THAT TIME.

A PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH
WITH A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN THE PEAK WIND GUSTS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY SUNDAY.

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY)...THE RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ONSHORE
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LATEST GFS IS A BIT QUICKER MOVING THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN
UTAH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO BY SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW/VALLEY RAIN. HAVE
SHOWED INCREASING POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL...
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE DUE TO NEARBY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT. OVERALL THE SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KTS WITH BRIEF GUSTS NEAR
25 KTS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ001-003-004.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ002.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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