Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 200415
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1014 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH COMBINED WITH A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH  WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLDER TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH HAS
MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING IN ITS WAKE. ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS OF A WEAK WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THESE SHOWERS TOOK THE FORM OF A MORE LINEAR FEATURE OVER
NEVADA EARLIER THIS EVENING...THE BEST DEVELOPMENT OVER UTAH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS. MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS FROM SPC SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPE NEAR
1000J/KG IN THIS AREA...WHICH HAS SO FAR BEEN SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN TERMS OF WHERE SHOWERS HAVE OR HAVE NOT
DEVELOPED. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP/SKY TO REFINE LOCATION OF GREATEST PRECIP THREAT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO ALLOWED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AS
ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE QUITE LOCALIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. APPROACHING SHOWERS MAY CAUSE WINDS TO
INCREASE AND BECOME ERRATIC AT TIMES...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF CEILINGS FALLING TO NEAR 6000 FEET AGL AFTER
08Z.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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