Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 120306
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
906 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY OVER
THE NORTH AND WEST. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW TRANSITIONING WELL NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...EVIDENT
IN 00Z KSLC RAOB...SAID SUBSIDENCE SQUELCHED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
A BIT EARLIER THAN NORM. REMOVED POPS MOST AREAS DUE TO THIS AND
DROPPED FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH SEVERAL HOURS EARLY.

ONE AREA THAT IS SEEING CONTINUED CONVECTION IS THE FAR NORTHWEST
WHERE SUBSIDENCE WAS NOT AS WELL DEFINED...AND A ZONE OF MID
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FORMED IN WAKE OF THE WAVES PASSAGE. STARTING TO
SEE THE SCATTERED CONVECTION DISSIPATE OVER LAST SEVERAL MINUTES
HOWEVER DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A NET DRYING TREND FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AS THE MID LEVEL HIGH CENTER REESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER CENTRAL NEVADA ABOUT 24 HOURS FROM NOW. WITH
THAT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN
ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE SHOULD SPARK ISOLATED CELLS. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL BE WANING DUE TO A SOMEWHAT DRIER COLUMN HOWEVER.
SIMILAR CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AND CONDITIONS WILL EXIST SUNDAY.

DECREASED MOISTURE/CLOUDS AND PROXIMITY OF HIGH CENTER WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR A NET WARMING TREND AREAWIDE THROUGH MONDAY. TRIPLE
DIGITS BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR KSLC ON MONDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION COVERS LONG TERM PERIODS...

THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW ALLOWING SOME
MOISTURE TO ROTATE BACK INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. THIS
MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE BRIEF AS A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...GLOBAL
MODELS BECOME OUT OF PHASE AS THE GFS STARTS SHIFTING THE RIDGE AXIS
BACK TO THE EAST WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT OVER NEVADA.


&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 05-06Z AS A WEAK NORTHEAST SURFACE GRADIENT HAS
BECOME ESTABLISHED...WITH NORMAL SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING
THEREAFTER. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR MAINTAINING VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH INTO THE EVENING. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN. STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT STORMS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AS
DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO UTAH FROM THE SOUTH. STORM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD INTO SUNDAY AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AND A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND. AND A FURTHER DECREASE IN CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/CHENG


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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