Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 240434
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
934 PM PDT Wed Apr 23 2014
Milder temperatures are forecast into Thursday, then another weather
system will bring a chance of widespread precipitation along with
cooler temperatures later Thursday into early Saturday.
Thunderstorms are possible on Friday.
A weak wave has brought some light showers or sprinkles to parts of
the interior this evening but for the most part they have been
dissipating before they have been reaching Shasta County. Overnight
the trend will continue and with an ever so slight weak ridging
expected overnight we now expect the north end of the valley to
remain dry. Clouds streaming over the interior are helping to keep
temperatures warning this evening and they are generally running
about 5 degrees warming.
On Thursday the cold front will approach the northwest coast. A
few showers may occur over the far northern interior ahead of the
front. The front looks like it will move through Thursday night
into early Friday morning. Snow levels will lower overnight to
around 5000 feet and continue to lower Friday morning to around
4000 feet. A few showers may occur over the Sierra Nevada ahead of
the main body of precipitation in the evening but should pick up
late Thursday night. Friday still looks like to could be an
active day for Thunderstorms and showers post frontal. The best
instability and greatest potential looks to be over the Southern
Sacramento valley and Northern San Joaquin valley.
At this point there continues to be the potential for up to a
foot of snow over the higher elevations and around half a foot or
so near pass levels. Temperatures this week will remain cool and
near normal Thursday and below normal for Friday and Saturday. The
trough axis moves through Friday night with ridging and dry
weather for Saturday.
.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)
A weak wave moves through the Pacific Northwest on Sunday for
possible showers...especially over the mountains. Temperatures on
Sunday are expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s in the
Valley and 40s and 50s in the mountains which is a few degrees
below normal for this time of year. Temperatures will warm up to
near to above normal with dry weather Monday into Wednesday with
the ridge building over the area. Temperatures on Tuesday
expected to be in the low to mid 80s in the valley and upper 50s
to low 70s in the mountains, which is a few degrees above normal
for this time of year. The GFS has the ridge shifting to the east
with a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday which
could bring a little precipitation to the far north and a little
cooling. The ECMWF keeps the ridge over the area on Wednesday.
The forecast leans toward the ECMWF with a dry forecast and
similar temperatures on Wednesday.
Mostly VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. There are some light
showers moving into the KRDD and KRBL vicinity which may cause
brief periods of MVFR this tonight. Winds light up to 12
kts...occasional gusts up to 18 kts possible tomorrow between
20-03z for KSMF, KSAC, KMHR, KSCK and KMOD. Winds generally
Southwest to Southerly for Sacramento valley and Northwesterly for
Northern San Joaquin valley. JBB