Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 051742
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
942 AM PST Thu Mar 5 2015

.Synopsis...
Warm daytime temperatures will continue into early next week
under strong high pressure over the western U.S. Daytime highs
over the weekend will be around 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
Temperatures returning to closer to normal by the middle of next
week with possible return of precipitation.

&&

.Discussion...
Ridge of high pressure remains over California into the weekend
bringing mostly clear skies and above normal high temperatures.
winds will generally be light north to east with weak pressure
gradients over the area. Patchy valley fog possible around sunrise,
mainly in the Northern San Joaquin Valley with clear skies at
night. Low temperatures will be around normal with temperatures
generally in the upper 30s to 40s except upper 20s to upper 30s in
colder mountain valleys and over highest elevations. High
temperatures will be about 5 to 15 degrees above normal with
temperatures in the upper 60s to around 80 in the valley and 60s
in the mountains. The warmest temperatures are expected this
weekend. Temperatures may rise to around 80 degrees in the Northern
Sacramento Valley this weekend. Record temperatures for this weekend are
in the mainly in the low 80s in the Valley.

&&


.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Persistent upper level ridge will slowly begin to flatten and
shift eastward for the start of the work week with dry weather and
above normal temperatures continuing into Tuesday. From Tuesday
night onward, still a bit of discrepancy between model solutions.
Large scale trough and associated low will continue to spin
offshore as it slowly moves eastward by mid-week. GFS continues to
depict a weak shortwave moving thru far northern portions of the
state Tuesday night into Wednesday with most of the area remaining
dry as parent low moves far north into WA and western Canada. Latest
ECMWF and GEM depict a more significant system for NorCal with
several waves moving across the state beginning Wednesday and
continuing thru the end of the week as low cutoffs and drops south
across CA. Thus tricky forecast remains this far out but at least
there is some sign of precipitation by mid to late next week.
Timing and nature of precip will depend on these details and will
have to be fine-tuned going forward. CEO

&&

.Aviation...

VFR SKC conditions through Fri. Winds will remain light...generally
mostly under 7 kts.



&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







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