Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 222124

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
224 PM PDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Cooling trend this weekend with a chance of precipitation
spreading over the forecast area Monday through next week as an
upper level disturbance approaches northern California.


A trough of low pressure will deepen along the west coast this
weekend. The interior is expected to stay dry but gradually become
cooler each day. Currently the models show the earliest any rain
near our area will be Monday morning and some areas may not get
any rain over the Northern San Joaquin Valley. The best chances
look to be along the northern coastal range and over the northern
half of the Sacramento valley and surrounding mountains. Rainfall
amounts and timing continues to be an issue.

The system may get stretched out over the region and weaken as it
tries to move onshore and push southward on Monday. No major
impacts are expected with this storm. Snow levels will be high so
any new snow will mostly be over the peaks. Breezy conditions
should develop on Monday with locally windy conditions possible
over the far north end of the valley and over the ridgetops.

The system will start to lift northward slightly on Tuesday then
even more Tuesday night keeping chances of rain or showers north
of the Sacramento region and over the northern portions of the
interior valley and mountains.



The extended forecast models show a wet and unsettled pattern
during the second half of next week, although it`s difficult to
nail down specifics on when the waves of precipitation will
arrive. For Wednesday, models suggest that the precipitation will
stay limited more towards the coast and coastal range with a
chance of rain spreading into our CWA north of Interstate 80 and
generally west of the Interstate 5 corridor. From Thursday into
the weekend is when models disagree on timing of additional storm
waves. Have left chance of precipitation across our entire region
during this timeframe until models come into better alignment.


VFR conditions prevail next 24 hours with SCT-BKN250. Light winds
at TAF sites around 2-7 knots.


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