Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 282243
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
343 PM PDT THU APR 28 2016
Breezy north winds today then again over the weekend, peaking
Saturday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms over the northern
Sierra today and through the weekend. Otherwise dry with above
normal temperatures through Sunday. Another wave drops down from
There has been a big change in the weather today, with mainly
sunny, dry and much warmer temperatures. Some showers and
thunderstorms are developing this afternoon over the Sierra and
Motherlode, with the back end of the upper low still wrapping some
moisture and instability. This convection is expected to be
isolated and short lived before ending by this evening.
Friday will be dry and slightly warmer, but this will just be a
short intermission between systems. A quick moving inside-slider
type wave will drop down over the Sierra by Friday evening. This
will bring showers over the higher Sierra, with snow showers
around 8000 feet and above.
By Saturday during the day this system will be dropping to the
south of the area, with just a few lingering showers over the
Sierra south of Highway 50. Most locations will be sunny and
warmer. North winds will increase through the day, breezy and
becoming windy by afternoon in some Valley locations. Temperatures
peak on Sunday, with Valley highs in the mid 80s. North winds
continue, but not as strong as on Saturday. EK
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)
Sunday`s Rex Block near the Four-Corners is forecast to break down
by Mon...with upper ridging building over Norcal. Steering flow
forecast to become SWly which should preclude precip or any thunder
chances in our CWA...while there is a chance E of the Sierra Crest
along the deformation zone extending Wwd across the Great Basin.
Warmer than normal max temps continue Mon/Tue...then a cooling trend
with unsettled/showery weather developing for the middle of the week.
Synoptic cooling from the digging offshore trof and increasing onshore
flow will cool max temps to several degrees below normal Wed/Thu.
Although there are model differences...synoptic pattern suggests
chance of showers increases Wed/Thu as cyclonic flow increases
over Norcal with possible T-storms over the coastal range Thu. JHM
VFR conditions for TAF sites thru Fri. Possible MVFR/IFR
conditions over western Sierra slopes (south of Tahoe) and
Motherlode as lingering showers persist until about 00z Fri.
North to Northwesterly winds at TAF sites with gusts up to 25 kts.
Wind gusts will diminish between 0-3z with TAF site winds being
less than 10 kts overnight through Friday morning. Winds will
transition Friday afternoon becoming more West to Southwesterly.