Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 200440
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
940 PM PDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.Synopsis...
Isolated showers/thunderstorms possible mainly over the Sierra
Saturday afternoon/evening, otherwise dry with near to a little
above normal temperatures into Tuesday. Cooler and wetter weather
arrives middle of next week into next weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
Closed upper low west of Point Conception is forecast to remain
quasistationary into early Saturday then lift NE across SoCal into
the Great Basin by Sunday. Threat of deep moist convection increases
over our Sierra Nevada and possibly into the Western Plumas
mountains Saturday afternoon into evening. NAM/GFS Elevated
instability progs show much less 700-500 MB MU CAPE and modified
total-total values over our eastern mountains Sunday as we
transition to backside of upper low and subsidence increases.

Surface high pressure extending through Oregon into the Great Basin
combined with thermal trough over Interior NorCal has strengthened
offshore flow. This has lead to increased smoke from the King fire
drifting into the Central Valley. Tightest low level pressure
gradient progged tonight into Saturday. Weaker gradient modeled
Sunday with more onshore component. Wind through the Delta expected
to be weak to moderate, strongest during the nighttime periods.

Short wave ridging behind the closed upper low moves over NorCal
Sunday into Monday for dry weather. Temperatures trend down slightly
over the weekend but remain near to a little above normal into
Monday.

PCH

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Models in good agreement that a stronger trough will impact the
region in the extended forecast. Tuesday should remain dry but
temperatures will be near to slightly below normal as the trough
approaches. By Wednesday, temperatures will drop well below
normal, especially over higher terrain. In addition, the chance
for showers will start impacting the NorCal coastline by early
Wednesday. Showers should spread over the Coastal range into the
Sacramento valley late Wednesday morning. The chance of showers
will continue to spread eastward and southward encompassing the
majority of our CWA Thursday and Friday as cooler temperatures
persist.  JBB

&&

.Aviation...

Clsd ofshr upr low W of KSBA wl mov NE acrs Cal Sat. VFR conds for
Intr NorCal nxt 24 hrs exc lcl MVFR in FU vcnty of King fire. Isold
shwrs/tstms poss ovr mtns of Wrn Plumas and Siernev Sat aftn into
eve.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








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