Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 010753
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
353 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHED FROM QUEBEC TO BAJA CALIFORNIA...
WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED CLOSED LOWS...OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A RIDGE REACHED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
REGION TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE - LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY
TRAILED A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO TX AND HAD A WARM FROM EAST TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC EXTENDED ACROSS
FL TO MUCH OF THE GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW CENTERS LIFTS AND
PIVOTS SLIGHTLY...FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO EASTERN QUEBEC...
WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD FRONT IS
DRAGGED EASTWARD...STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO
THE TX/LA COASTAL WATERS. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SOME AND SLIDES EAST
AS THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE
BACK ACROSS FL TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. HOWEVER...A POCKET OF DEEPER
MOISTURE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST SEA BREEZE AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOR MON
THE WEAKENING AND EXITING UPPER RIDGE AND AND AN OVERALL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CHANCE SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
STORMS. AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST COVERAGE INLAND.

.MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...THE FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT...AS A POTENT UPPER CYCLONE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER
LOOKS TO UNFOLD WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH BASE
OF THE TROUGH...AFFECTING THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...AND EVENTUALLY THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

MONDAY NIGHT...EXPANSIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THOUGH SPOTTY SEABREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RATHER MUGGY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO REINFORCE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LIFT...INCREASING MOISTURE...AND AN
APPROACHING FRONT...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES...SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL PIECE OF
ENERGY LOOKS TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG A FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING A SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS UPPER
WAVE...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY
EXIST...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE
GULF AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...BRINGING A SPELL OF COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...THOUGH LOWS LOOK TO FALL
BELOW CLIMO...WITH SOME AREAS FALLING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/06Z CYCLE. PREVAILING VFR WITH FEW TO SCT CU AND CI
CLOUDS. LIGHT SE TO EAST WINDS OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO ONSHORE
ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH BUT WELL INLAND OF THOSE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A FRONT MID-WEEK
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS
AND SEAS BENIGN ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ADEQUATE MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
COLD FRONT MID-WEEK WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
COULD DROP RH VALUES TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. 20 FOOT WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRANSPORT WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  73  88  74 /  10  10  20  10
FMY  89  71  89  72 /  20  10  40  20
GIF  91  71  91  71 /  10  10  30  30
SRQ  84  72  85  72 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  90  68  88  67 /  10  10  20  20
SPG  87  74  86  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...84/AUSTIN



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