Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 240820
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
420 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS VERY EVIDENT ON SAT LOOP THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE BAHAMAS BY 00Z
SAT. THIS FORECAST POSITION IS MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH GFS FORECAST
FROM YESTERDAY AND OTHER MED RANGE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ON MUCH
BETTER TODAY. THE FORECAST TRACK OF LOW WILL KEEP THE COLD FRONT
AND ASSOC DEEP MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION (SOMETHING A BIT
IN QUESTION ON PREVIOUS DAYS) AND THIS WILL PROMOTE A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA (INCLUDING FAR SOUTH) DESPITE PRESENCE OF
STRONG LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOC WITH A STRONG S/WV TROUGH WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH SHALLOW ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BELOW AN H85 INVERSION TO ALLOW A CU FIELD ACROSS SRN/ERN
HALF OF THE AREA AND EVEN EXPECT BKN SKIES ACROSS THE SRN 3RD OF
THE CWA IN THE AFTN DUE TO DEVELOPING STRATA CU DECK. COOL/DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND PROMOTING SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS BUT
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS WITH LARGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGES
PREVAILING. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TODAY...BUT WILL
DECREASE SOME ON SATURDAY AS THE PGRAD RELAXES SOME WITH THE LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN TWO MARINE ZONES WILL
RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG TONIGHT...BUT STILL BE SEE CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS SRN WATERS
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AIRMASS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MIN RH
VALUES IN THE 30S AND 40S. NATURE COAST WILL APPROACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA SAT WITH MORE OF THE REGION APPROACHING MID 30S MIN RH BY
SUN...BUT ERC AND WIND THRESHOLDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
PROGRESSIVE U/L PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE STORM TRACK
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.  SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. WHILE A STRONG U/L RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.  THE
U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK...WHILE THE NEXT U/L DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  QUASI ZONAL FLOW
WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE U/L PATTERN
AMPLIFYING THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH RIDGING TAKING PLACE ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES.  THE U/L RIDGE OVER FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE U/L TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING SOUTH OVER NORTH FLORIDA.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SUNDAY WILL
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY.  BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S.  MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
CREATE DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE LAYER COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER THE INTERIOR.

THE U/L RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  60  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  84  64  82  63 /  10  10   0   0
GIF  80  61  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  81  61  80  62 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  80  50  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  79  66  80  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GITTINGER
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY





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