Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 280734
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
334 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...In the upper levels, high
pressure ridging extends from near Bermuda northwest toward the mid
Atlantic region. The associated surface high also ridges west
southwest over the eastern seaboard and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Just to the south of this ridge, north of the Bahamas, Tropical
Depression Two has developed and is moving northwest toward the
South Carolina coastline. T.D. Two is expected to intensify and
become Tropical Storm Bonnie by Saturday morning. The storm is
expected to make landfall along the South Carolina coastline on
Sunday morning. The Florida peninsula should not feel any effects
from this storm over the coming days. Weak surface high pressure
will be the dominant weather factor over Florida for the next couple
of days with sea breeze boundaries being the main weather producer.
Sea breeze showers and storms can be expected during the afternoon
for the next couple of days with the highest concentration being
south of the I-4 corridor and over inland counties. Temperatures
will remain just around average with daytime highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
.MID/LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
An amplified split flow upper air pattern will persist over the
conus during the period. Upper level troughing will linger over the
southeastern U.S. and Florida through much of the upcoming week
before weak upper ridging builds in late Thursday into Friday as
another upper level trough moves east into the lower Mississippi
valley. At the surface newly developed tropical cyclone Bonnie along
the South Carolina coast at the start of the period is forecast to
drift ever so slowly north-northeast along a baroclinic zone along
the Mid Atlantic coast through Tuesday before weakening and washing
out as surface high pressure re-builds in from the Atlantic
Wednesday through Friday. For additional information on tropical
cyclone Bonnie see the latest advisories being issued by the
National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Adequate low level moisture combined with daytime heating should
result in scattered diurnal sea breeze driven showers and storms
(pops in the 30 to 50 percent range) across the forecast area each
day...mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours...with
highest rain chances along and to the east of the I-75 corridor each
afternoon as the sea breeze boundary moves inland.
Temperatures will run a few degrees above seasonal norms through the
period with overnight lows in the lower 70s inland areas...and mid
70s along the coast...with daytime highs in the upper 80s along the
coast and lower 90s inland.
.AVIATION...VFR conditions can be expected at all terminals through
the period. Will cover the possibility of thunderstorms moving
across the southern terminals with VCTS during the afternoon hours.
.MARINE...High pressure to the north will keep a predominant
easterly wind over the coastal waters through Sunday except for
during the afternoon when the winds shift onshore as the sea breeze
sets up. On Monday, high pressure moves into the Gulf of Mexico and
will cause a shift in the winds to the northwest through Wednesday
next week. A chance of showers and storms can be expected over the
waters during the afternoon/evening hours. So with the exception of
gusty winds in the vicinity of thunderstorms, no other hazards are
expected through the period.
.FIRE WEATHER...Relative humidity values will remain above any
critical levels so no fire weather concerns are expected.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 90 74 90 75 / 20 20 20 20
FMY 90 72 90 72 / 50 30 40 20
GIF 92 71 92 72 / 20 20 40 30
SRQ 87 72 87 73 / 20 20 10 10
BKV 91 67 91 68 / 20 20 30 20
SPG 89 75 89 76 / 10 10 20 20
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/Wynn
MID/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/McMichael