Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 280912 CCA
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
311 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today - Wednesday)...
Mid level high pressure will continue to build into the
region from the south today and Wednesday, as surface high
pressure centered over the Atlantic ridges across the
Florida Peninsula throughout the period. This will keep
warm and stable conditions in place, with temperatures
continuing to run well above normal for late February/early
March. Highs are expected to top out in the mid to upper
80s both afternoons, with lows tonight generally in the mid
60s. Rain chances will be minimal, although a few low
topped showers cannot be ruled out either afternoon. Despite
the dry and stable conditions aloft, enough low level
moisture is still in place for there to be a threat of
patchy fog once again late this evening and into Thursday
morning.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night - Monday)...
On Thursday, upper-level troughing across the NE U.S. will
allow a cold front to shift south into the panhandle before
pushing through our area on Friday morning. Limited moisture
will be associated with the front but enough for low-end
PoPs Thursday afternoon with QPF looking low at the moment.
Behind the front, drier and slightly cooler air will filter
in for Friday and the weekend. The near- normal temps on
Friday will be short- lived as high pressure will shift into
the mid-Atlantic region on Saturday and over the western
Atlantic Sunday. Boundary layer winds will veer to the east
across the Florida peninsula which will allow low level
moisture to rebound and temperatures to climb back to about
five degrees above climatic normals by the start of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few patches of fog and low stratus are starting develop,
and are expected to expand through the rest of the night,
potentially impacting area terminals with MVFR or IFR
conditions. VFR conditions will return after around 14z, and
are expected to hold through the rest of the day.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to hold across the waters
through Wednesday night, with light winds and seas. A cold
front will move in from the northwest on Thursday, with a
tight pressure gradient filling in behind the front through
the end of the week. Winds and seas are expected to increase
to low end advisory levels by late Friday. Conditions will
improve Sunday morning through the rest of the weekend as
high pressure settles in north of the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Patchy fog will burn off by mid morning, but more patchy fog
is expected during the next couple of nights. A cold front
will move through Thursday, with drier air filling in behind
it on Friday. A few hours of critical relative humidity
values are expected over the Nature Coast Friday afternoon.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  84  66  82  66 /  10  10  10  10
FMY  86  66  85  68 /  10  10  10  10
GIF  86  65  87  66 /  10  10  10  10
SRQ  81  65  80  65 /  10  10  10  10
BKV  86  63  85  61 /  10  10  10  10
SPG  82  67  81  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/Fleming
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...11/McKaughan


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