Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 010806
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
406 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS SPINNING AROUND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT HAS MOVED OVER PINELLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY CONTINUES...WITH
ACTIVITY PEAKING ALONG WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
DOUBT REMAINS IF SOME AREAS WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE 90 DEGREES OR
HIGHER ADVERTISED BY THE MOS GUIDANCE. MORNING SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER WILL PRESENT SOME IMPEDIMENT TO HEATING TODAY.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING AFTER
DARK. MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...SO SOME OVERNIGHT GROUND
FOG CANNOT BE RULE OUT LEADING UP TO SUNRISE. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED AROUND THE COAST FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN LEVY COUNTY TO THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST.

THE BOUNDARY AND LOW WILL WEAKEN...ALLOWING FOR A RELATIVELY NORMAL
WESTERLY FLOW REGIME ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY THE WESTERLY FLOW. BEST POPS ARE
INLAND...THOUGH MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO NEAR THE LOWER 90S...THOUGH THE
UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER WITH MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD ONCE
AGAIN KEEP TEMPERATURES A TAD LOWER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON
FRIDAY MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  SUFFICIENT MOISTURE (PW`S 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE) COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS (POPS
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE) OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW FAVORING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN SIMILAR THIS MORNING IN MOVING THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AMPLE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY... AND GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS (POPS 40 TO 60 PERCENT) ACROSS THE REGION DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER FALL LIKE AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
A BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
NORTHERN GULF. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS...WITH
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS FALL SEASON...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC. A RETURN EASTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES.
THE SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS OVER SOUTHERN MOST ZONES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE 20 PERCENT
POPS HAVE BEEN DEPICTED...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
CENTRAL AND NORTH. AFTER A FEW COOLER DAYS TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WITH BRIEF LOW MVFR CIGS/VSBY THIS MORNING
AROUND THE TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED AND VERY BRIEF IFR/LIFR
WITH HEAVY RAIN TODAY...THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH INLAND.
MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTY VARIABILITY AROUND
CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AROUND CENTRAL
FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE SHIFTED
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR TODAY. FROM TAMPA
BAY SOUTHWARD...THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS. MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK THANKS TO RECENT AND
EXPECTED WETTING RAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  75  89  74 /  50  20  50  10
FMY  90  76  90  75 /  50  20  50  10
GIF  90  74  91  72 /  60  30  60  20
SRQ  88  74  88  73 /  50  20  40  10
BKV  89  69  90  70 /  50  20  50  10
SPG  88  77  89  77 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL




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