Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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724
FXUS62 KTBW 100100
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
800 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM (REMAINDER OF TONIGHT)...
A LARGE SCALE PATTERN OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL CONTINUE...AS A SURGE OF POLAR AIR
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT MAINLY ON LAND
WHILE GULF AND COASTAL WINDS REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE
ONGOING HIGH SURF AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES.
THE LIGHTER WINDS ON THE LAND HAVE ALLOWED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AND WILL MITIGATE WINDS CHILLS TO A CERTAIN EXTANT.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE 40S IN THE
SOUTH TO 30S IN THE NORTH...WHERE A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR INLAND LEVY COUNTY. COASTAL LOCATIONS SLIGHTLY WARMER. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE LATE NIGHT DRIZZLE BIT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WHEN
THE FORECASTS ARE UPDATE AROUND 9 PM.

&&

.AVIATION...
10/00Z-11/00Z. BKN VFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING THEN BECOMING
FEW-SCT. ROBUST AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SLACKEN SOME TOWARD
DAWN THEN PICK BACK DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT FORECAST OUT BY 10 PM WITH LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WED...WITH A RELAXING GRADIENT...AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  59  45  57  41 /  20  10  10   0
FMY  64  50  62  42 /  10  10  10   0
GIF  59  42  58  38 /  10   0   0   0
SRQ  60  48  59  42 /  20  10  10   0
BKV  56  39  55  32 /  20  10   0   0
SPG  60  49  58  45 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INLAND
     LEVY.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...25/DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD



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