Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTBW 221945
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
345 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL WASH OUT
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. POPS WILL BE
A BIT HIGHER FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
SOUTH. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY WITH A WEAKER
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PUSH BACK TOWARDS
THE GULF COAST IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S...WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND FEATURES
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS OUT OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST ON SUNDAY AS THERE WILL BE
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND MEAN
EASTERLY FLOW. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN SOME
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHILE THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH KEEPS AN EASTERLY
SYNOPTIC FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE WILL AGAIN SEE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST ON MONDAY BUT THEN BY
TUESDAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRIER
AIR WORKING ITS WAY OVER THE REGION FROM THE EAST...SO RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL...BUT SOME BRIEF MVFR PERIODS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME EASTERLY FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVENING EASTERLY WIND SURGES MAY CREATE
A FEW HOURS OF SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  93  75  89 /  20  60  60  50
FMY  73  93  73  89 /  50  60  60  40
GIF  73  92  74  89 /  40  40  40  30
SRQ  72  93  74  88 /  30  60  60  30
BKV  70  92  71  88 /  20  50  40  50
SPG  77  92  77  88 /  20  60  60  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.