Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 301911
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
311 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A LARGE RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER UT WHILE TROUGHING WAS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE REACHED ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS BETWEEN THE KEYS AND CUBA.
SURFACE - A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STRUNG OUT FROM THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGED THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND ALONG THE KEY INTO THE MIDDLE GULF
OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REMAINDER OF TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE WESTERN RIDGE CENTER HOLDS IN PLACE AS IT SPRAWLS OUT ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES BUT
EASES NORTHWARD AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING SOUTH OF FL/ THE UPPER
AND SURFACE RIDGES NOTED IN THE PRECEDING SECTION/ LIFT NORTH UP
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS REACHES CENTRAL OR SOUTH-CENTRAL FL BY WED
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ONGOING BUT RATHER SPARSE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVING EAST...EXPECT IT TO EXIT BY EARLY EVENING. WED WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY AS THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING
APPROACHES. THERE WILL SOME LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON THE GULF THAT PROPAGATE INLAND DURING THE DAY. FROM
AROUND TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD...NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE WILL TEND TO PUSH THE
SHOWERS/STORMS INLAND. SOUTH OF THERE THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE
LIGHTER AS IT BEGINS TO VEER THROUGH THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE A SEA BREEZE BUT WITH LESS IMPACT SO CONVECTION
STAYS CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PWAT VALUES RUN 1.6 TO 1.9
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS. THE TEMPERATURES RUN
NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL...BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF WAVE PERIOD
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE
SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN EARLY CONVECTION
FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD AND LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND WITH PREDOMINATE ALBEIT WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW
ENABLING BOTH EAST AND WEST SEA BREEZES TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST
AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION. DAYTIME
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE SEASONAL
VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

AVIATION...
30/18Z-01/18Z. PREVAILING VFR WITH LCL BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS...
BLOW-OFF FROM SCT CB OVER THE INTERIOR. WITH WESTERLY FLOW EXPECT
TSRA TO REMAIN EAST OF TERMINALS FOR THE MOST PART. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A STRAY TSRA DRIFTING BACK TO THE WEST COAST ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH BUT THE ODDS ARE LOW AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS.

&&

MARINE...
SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA GRADUALLY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
NEAR THE KEYS MOVES TO NORTH-CENTRAL FL FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
SOUTHWEST OR WEST WINDS CONTINUING NORTH OF THE AXIS. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE NO MORE THAN 15 KNOTS AND USUALLY LESS. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY CONCERNS ABOUT LOW RH VALUES.
HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  93  78  92 /  10  20  10  30
FMY  76  95  76  94 /  10  50  10  40
GIF  76  95  76  95 /   0  30  10  40
SRQ  77  92  77  91 /   0  20  10  30
BKV  73  93  72  92 /  10  20  10  30
SPG  80  92  80  91 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
MID/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...10/LAMARRE


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