Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 281829
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
229 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Thursday)...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move eastward
across the Gulf waters and over the Florida peninsula this
afternoon. Expect this to continue for the rest of the afternoon,
with most of the activity being pushed away from the coast by this
evening.

As far as the synoptic setup for tonight into Thursday, the large
closed low aloft over the Great Lakes region today will move
southward over the eastern part of the country through Thursday
with cyclonic flow aloft continuing over Florida. At the surface,
an area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley region will sink
southeastward as a cold front currently over the southeast
continues to push into north Florida. Models remain in good
agreement in showing some shortwave energy rounding the base of
the trough overnight and this should lead to some additional
shower and thunderstorm activity over the Gulf and western half
of the forecast area. A southwest to west flow will remain in
place through the rest of Thursday, so we can expect to see
continued shower and thunderstorm activity over the Gulf through
the day. Similar to today, the best rain chances will likely shift
inland for the afternoon. Warm and humid conditions will continue
with highs in the mid to upper 80s and dew points in the lower
70s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night-Wednesday)...
A low aloft the eastern U.S. meanders above the Tennesee and Ohio
Valleys for much of the weekend then lifts northeast or east...
across the lower great lakes...and opens up during early next
week. A ridge aloft the plains states MON shifts to east of the
Mississippi Valley by mid-week. A surface cool front settles from
the Gulf coastal and southeastern states to north-central FL by
FRI. Drier and more stable air filters in behind the front but
erodes away as the front washes out FRI night. Atlantic high
pressure ridges in across the southeast U.S. at the start of the
weekend with an easterly component in the low level
flow...providing increasing moisture back across the entire area.
this ridge moves north during next week as an area of low
pressure approaches from the southeast.

The forecast philosophy is to initially limit showers and storms
across the Nature Coast but allow scattered to occasionally
coverage from around the I-4 corridor southward. By SAT with the
front washed out and a slightly more robust easterly flow
increasing moisture isolated-scattered-numerous coverage continues
in the south and spreads northward for the entire area...with the
higher coverage inland and south. Temperatures will run a couple
of degrees either side of normal for the highs. Lows with stay
near to just above normal except the Nature Coast will be just
below FRI and SAT mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions continue this afternoon and can generally be
expected outside of showers and thunderstorms, which could affect
any of the terminals through the rest of the afternoon. There
should be a break in the rain later this evening as westerly flow
pushes storms away from the terminals, but there will be a chance
for showers starting overnight/early Thursday morning and
continuing through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
A west to southwest flow will remain in place across the waters
through Thursday night. A weak cold front will then move over the
Florida peninsula, turning winds more northerly through Friday but
still remaining light. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could
briefly increase winds and seas, but no headlines are expected
through the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels. Some patchy shallow ground fog will be
possible in some of the more fog-prone areas for the next few
mornings, but significant visibility restrictions are not
anticipated.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  76  87  75  87 /  40  30  30  30
FMY  75  87  74  88 /  20  40  30  50
GIF  73  87  73  89 /  20  50  20  50
SRQ  75  86  75  86 /  40  40  30  40
BKV  72  87  71  88 /  40  40  20  30
SPG  76  86  76  86 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/Carlisle
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/Rude



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