Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 191135
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
735 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail at all terminal sites during the next 24
hours. Far southern terminals could see some showers after
18Z and have included VCSH for now. Northeast winds around
5 knots early this morning will shift to northwest and
increase to 7 to 10 knots at KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ after 18Z.
Northeast to east winds aob 5 knots can be expected at all
of the terminals after 02Z tonight.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 335 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today - Wednesday)...
Hurricane Jose tracks north then northeast along the Mid-
Atlantic and New England coasts while ridging aloft
resides over the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface high
pressure over the eastern states and the Gulf settles into
the Gulf overnight and is reinforced from the Atlantic
during Wed. The 1000MB-700MB flow is generally from the
northeast and results in increasing moisture with model PWAT
values of 1.2 to 1.6 inches today becoming 1.5 to around 2
inches Wed...from north to south. The pressure gradient will
be relaxed with light northerly to easterly low level
flow...except shifting to onshore along the coast in the
afternoons.

Skies will range from mostly clear to partly cloudy with
limited rain chances this afternoon but increasing for Wed
afternoon. Only showers are expected today in the far
southeast and southern counties. For Wed showers along with
a few thunderstorms are anticipated southward of a line from
Sarasota county to southeast Polk County. Temperatures will
be warm with lows above normal by a degree or two and highs
perhaps 2-3 degrees above.

MID TERM/LONG TERM (Wednesday Night - Monday)...
The relatively dry air will hold on across much of the
Nature Coast into Thursday with the deeper moisture
spreading across the rest of the area leading to isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening convection from around the
Interstate 4 corridor southward. For Friday into Saturday
this deeper moisture will overspread the entire region with
an increasing east to northeast flow setting up. This
combined with daytime heating and the sea breezes will lead
to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms across the entire area. Sunday into early next
week the global models are continuing to move Hurricane
Maria northward well east of the Florida peninsula with the
northeast flow shifting to a more northerly direction by
Monday. Some drier air will spread back in Sunday into
Monday, but should still be enough moisture for an isolated
to low end chance of showers and storms on these days.

Daytime high temperatures will be near to a couple of
degrees above  normal through the period with overnight
remaining near normal.

MARINE...
High pressure dominates the waters with a relaxed
gradient...keeping winds light and allowing afternoon sea
breezes...through the end of the week. During the weekend
winds along with seas will increase as the gradient
tightens...in response to hurricane Maria moving across the
southwestern waters of the Atlantic. All mariners should
monitor the progress of Maria through the remainder of the
week. Additional information on Maria may be found on
advisories being issued by the National Hurricane Center in
Miami.

FIRE WEATHER...
Some drier air prevails for the next couple of days with
limited rain chances...mainly in the south...and enough
moisture to keep minimum RH values above critical levels.
Increasing moisture later in the week will provide some
higher rain chances and also bump up the minimum RH.

HYDROLOGY...
Minor to major flooding continues on area rivers and creeks.
The drier air of the past few days has allowed most rivers
to trend down...however the Withlacoochee river at both
Croom and Trilby are forecast to slowly rise through mid to
late week. Trilby remains in major flood and Croom goes into
moderate flood. Limited rainfall is expected through mid to
late week...allowing the rivers to continue to slowly fall.
Where rivers have already crested impacts will likely
linger given the very gradual recession of floodwaters
expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  91  75  92  75 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  90  75  91  74 /  20  20  30  20
GIF  91  73  92  72 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  90  74  90  74 /  10  10  10  10
BKV  92  69  92  71 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  91  77  92  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57/McMichael
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...09/Rude
MID TERM/LONG TERM...69/Close



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