Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 211248
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
748 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Mid/upper level trough will continue to amplify over the western
Gulf of Mexico with a lead shortwave moving across the region
today. This combined with the warm front lifting north will lead
to scattered to numerous showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.
Area of showers ahead of the warm front over southwest and south
central Florida early this morning will move north during the day
so the best chances will reach central Florida around midday/early
afternoon and then the Nature Coast this afternoon. Rain chances
will diminish behind the front, but with some sun we could see a
few more showers and storms pop up. Temperatures will climb into
the mid 70s north to lower 80s southwest and southern interior.
Have adjusted the rain chance timing in the grids and will update
zone forecast shortly. Remainder of forecast look on track at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Some MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible in convection
today, otherwise mainly VFR ceilings are expected. Tonight
conditions will deteriorate with MVFR and eventually IFR/local
LIFR conditions in low clouds and fog anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
Gradient will relax today as high pressure off the southeast U.S.
coast continues to move further out into the Atlantic Ocean
allowing winds to diminish. East to southeast flow will shift to
onshore across the central and southern waters as the warm front
lifts north. Winds will remain rather light tonight through
Wednesday then begin to increase as low pressure develops over the
central gulf and moves east late in the week. Present marine
forecast looks ok with no major changes planned for late morning
forecast.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  78  66  79  66 /  50  30  40  30
FMY  83  65  83  66 /  50  20  30  20
GIF  79  63  81  63 /  60  30  40  20
SRQ  79  65  80  64 /  50  20  40  20
BKV  78  60  79  61 /  50  30  40  40
SPG  76  67  78  66 /  50  30  40  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/Close
UPPER AIR...05/Carlisle
DECISION SUPPORT...09/Rude



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