Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 201837

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
237 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

...Much Cooler And Drier Conditions This Weekend...
...Hazardous Marine and Boating Conditions Late Friday-Saturday...

.Short Term (This afternoon - Friday)...
Satellite and plots continue to show amplifying longwave trough
moving through the Mississippi River valley this
afternoon/evening pushing surface cold front ahead of upper
dynamics. Expect tonight to be the last above normal nighttime
temps for several days under mostly clear skies and light NE winds.

Upper low/trough to quickly move from the Great Lakes Friday
morning through the Ohio River Valley by Friday evening. Narrow
vort max to push surface cold front from N FL Friday morning then
sweeping through the FL Peninsula through the day. Limited
moisture ahead of the front so POPS will remain in the 10% range.
Cool and dry high pressure starts building into the region behind
the front with a noticeably drier airmass filtering into the
region late.

.Mid/Long Term (Friday Night - Thursday)...
A highly amplified upper level pattern has set up over the CONUS for
the start of the mid/long term period. Deep troughing sits over the
eastern half of the U.S., while strong ridging extends over the
western portion. This pattern will slowly shift east through the
weekend. By Monday, the parent upper low sits over Quebec and high
pressure ridging has moved into the Gulf of Mexico and extends over
the southeast U.S. This pattern will continue until next Thursday
when another weak trough moves north of the area.

On the surface, an area of low pressure is located off the New
England coast and extends a cold front along the eastern seaboard,
over central Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. By Saturday
morning, this front has pushed over south Florida as high pressure
builds to the northwest over Louisiana and Mississippi. The gradient
between these two features will produce gusty northerly winds across
the coastal waters. Winds will approach small craft advisory levels
late Friday into early Saturday morning. As the front pushes south
and washes out, the gradient slackens allowing for the wind to
slightly decrease, but will still remain around 15-20 knots. The
coolest temperatures of the season can be expected on Saturday and
Sunday night as cool dry air filters in behind the front. Daytime
highs will only reach the 70s region wide with overnight lows in the
50s inland and low 60s near the coast. High pressure will park over
the southeast U.S. most of next week allowing for the winds to veer
to the east northeast. With the east northeast winds, a slight
chance of showers will be possible each day as they develop over the
east coast and move westward through the afternoon. This will also
bring in more warm, closer to seasonal temperatures by Wednesday.


VFR conditions expected to continue at all terminals this
afternoon through tonight.


Easterly surge again this evening into overnight hours with short
durations of NE winds near SCEC levels well offshore.

Cold front to move through the waters Friday with increasing NW
winds and seas into SCA range behind the front late Friday-
Saturday creating hazardous boating conditions. Winds and seas
will slowly subside Sunday-Monday with winds veering NE-E but
evening surges will again develop daily.


No fire wx concerns through Friday. High pressure to bring very
dry airmass into the area this weekend into early next week with
Min RHs in the lower 30% range with winds around 15 mph over N FL,
but ERCs remain low to prevent significant fire wx concerns.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  70  85  61  76 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  68  86  65  81 /  10   0   0   0
GIF  66  86  59  78 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  68  83  63  76 /   0   0  10   0
BKV  63  85  53  76 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  72  84  66  76 /  10   0  10   0


FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.


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