Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 302148

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
548 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

...Hurricane Watch in effect for Coastal Levy, Coastal Citrus,
Coastal Hernando, and Coastal Pasco counties, and the northern
Coastal Waters out to 60NM...
...Tropical Storm Watch in effect for Inland Levy, Inland Citrus,
Inland Hernando, and Inland Pasco counties...

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Wednesday)...
TD9 continues in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Deep tropical
moisture remains over the area with scattered to numerous showers
and a few embedded thunderstorms in place across the area. TD9
is expected to move to the north and then northeast through
Wednesday with winds becoming gusty across the area for Wednesday
afternoon. Numerous showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will
continue to be possible through the period. Temperatures will be
in the mid 80s to near 90 for highs, and in the mid 70s to near
80 for lows.

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for coastal Pasco county north
through coastal Levy county and the northern coastal waters, and
a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the inland portion of
Pasco county north through the inland portion of Levy county.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night-Tuesday)...
What is currently Tropical Depression 9 is forecast to be heading
north-northeast through the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday Night
into Thursday before making landfall later Thursday near the Florida
Big Bend region. The impacts for our forecast area include heavy
rainfall with flooding along with tropical storm force winds, an
increasing risk of storm surge, and increasing coastal hazards such
as rip currents and high surf. As with most tropical cyclones,
isolated tornadoes will be a risk as well. Most of the impacts are
expected Wednesday night through Thursday and by Friday
afternoon/evening, most global models show the system off to our
northeast offshore of the Georgia/Carolina border.

For the rest of Friday and into the weekend, we will likely still be
looking at fairly high rain chances (especially Friday and Saturday)
as deep moisture lingers across the region in the wake of the
tropical system.

For Sunday into early next week, the pattern will return back to a
more typical summertime pattern with the surface high pressure axis
to our north and scattered diurnally-driven showers and
thunderstorms each day.


MVFR to IFR conditions are expected through the rest of the day in
periods of rain. Areas where it is not raining should see VFR
conditions prevail. Periods of rain will continue to be possible
overnight and into Wednesday, with ceilings lowering overnight.
Winds will become more southerly and gusty for Wednesday.


A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the northern coastal waters
and an SCA will be raised for the central and southern waters for
later this evening. Will monitor conditions for the possible need
for an SCEC for Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor overnight. TD9 is
expected to move north and then northeast through Thursday and
then push onshore late Thursday or early Friday. As the system
continues to lift out to the NE, high pressure will build in
across the southern half of the state and into the Gulf waters
from the Atlantic for the rest of the period.


No concerns.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  85  77  84 /  60  80  70  80
FMY  77  85  78  86 /  70  50  60  60
GIF  75  85  76  84 /  50  70  50  70
SRQ  78  85  80  85 /  70  70  70  80
BKV  76  84  76  83 /  60  70  70  90
SPG  78  84  78  85 /  70  80  80  80


.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...Hurricane Watch for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-
     Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco.

     Tropical Storm Watch for Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-
     Inland Levy-Inland Pasco.

Gulf waters...Hurricane Watch for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
     Thursday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood
     to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.



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