Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 041102
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
502 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN FEATURE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA BUT A LOW PRESSURE
TROF MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES, BUT MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN SPARSE AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY LOW. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ZONES TONIGHT BUT THE LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST THURSDAY WITH THE MAIN CENTER MOVING
SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROF WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND INSTABILITY WILL BECOME
STRONGER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN AREA OF INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER AND NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
AND BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ALSO
BRING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BUT LEAVE IT
COOLER AND STABLE ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY
AND THURSDAY BUT DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMALS FRIDAY. ZELZER

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NORTH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST THOUGH...POSSIBLY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. ON SUNDAY...THE EC/GFS START TO DIFFER A
BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THUS
POPS ARE GENERALLY LOW FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EC ALSO
SEEMS TO BE STRONGER WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WHEN COMPARED
TO THE GFS. FOR NOW...KEPT THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION GENERALLY
LOW FROM SUNDAY THRU WED...WITH QPF EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO THE
GFS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION...THAT SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER TO 5500 TO 6000 FEET BY
TUESDAY MORNING. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A WARMING TREND
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES COOL OFF BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
FOR MON THRU WED. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 1100Z.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS DRY AND STABLE. MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  83  47  80  44 /  10   0  10  40
CTB  79  44  72  40 /  10  10  30  60
HLN  82  47  82  46 /  10   0  20  40
BZN  79  44  81  43 /  10   0  10  30
WEY  65  40  68  41 /   0   0  20  20
DLN  76  45  79  47 /  10  10  20  40
HVR  86  47  83  47 /   0   0   0  60
LWT  82  49  83  46 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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