Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 311131
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
631 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Secondary cold front was moving across areas south of Interstate 35
this morning at 08Z. Area of stratus covered most of northeast and
east central Kansas while it was more scattered over north central
Kansas. Cloud deck extends into central Nebraska and the back edge
was moving south around 35 mph. Expect the clearing to occur prior
to sunrise north of I-70 and then continue south through mid
morning. Satellite trends and high resolution models continue to
show clouds breaking up some as they proceed south through the
morning hours.

Cold advection will continue through the day as cold high pressure
builds southward behind the cold front. Highs will be about 15
degrees below normal with readings in the middle 40s today. Winds
will remain gusty through the morning hours especially across
northeast and east central Kansas. The pressure gradient will relax
through the day as the surface high moves in decreasing winds from
west to east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Atmosphere will be slow to recover behind the cold surface high.
Despite south winds becoming gusty Saturday as a strong pressure
gradient develops over the region. Upper ridge axis moving east of
the area Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning brings decent mid level
isentropic upglide along with modest moisture, but inversion above
this should keep any precip in check in a still very dry low layer.
Winds will remain rather brisk under this cloud Saturday night for
lows around 15F above Friday night`s levels. Somewhat stronger warm
air advection takes place Sunday, and along with deeper mixing should
push highs back to near normal. With good insolation and 925mb winds
into the 30-40kt range, will need to monitor Wind Advisory
potential.

Deepening moisture with the approach of a longwave trough brings
increasing precipitation chances Sunday night into Monday night. At
this point Monday night appears to be the wettest period with the
trough`s passage, and with precipitable water values well above
normal, could see respectable rainfall amounts. Instability remains
meager but thunder mention will be maintained. Beyond Tuesday, the
remainder of the forecast remains dry with Pacific high pressure
only dropping highs back into the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday and
further modification for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MVFR cigs are expected to clear the terminals around 13Z and
expect VFR conditions thereafter. Winds north around 14kts with
gusts around 24 kts at TOP and FOE will decrease to around 10 kts
after 20Z with light winds of 3 kts or less after 00Z Saturday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
KSZ011-012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53






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