Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 240406
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
906 PM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Daytime temperatures will continue at record levels
into the weekend. Cooler temperatures are expected early next
week as a system passes north of our area, but dry conditions will
continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Another record breaking day today across much of the
western U.S. with high temperature records falling from the Canadian
to the Mexican border.  In Tucson the high of 89 was a daily record
and it took until after 7 pm this evening to cool down to what is
the "normal" high for today which is 70 degrees.  All this warmth is
due to a large upper level area of high pressure over the southwest
which noses northward into Canada.  This feature will linger over
the region this weekend with continued record breaking afternoon
temperatures through Sunday.

The high pressure is expected to give way to a storm system that
will move by to our north late Monday into Tuesday.  This system
will drive cooler air across the area dropping us from 15-20 degrees
warmer than average to only about 5-10 degrees above average Tuesday
into Thursday.  No rainfall expected over the next 7 days as the
passing storm will be just too far north for rainfall here.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 25/00Z.
Expect a few clouds above 20k ft AGL and surface wind variable in
direction mainly less than 12 kts into Friday afternoon. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will continue into next Thursday.
20-foot winds will be terrain driven mainly less than 10 mph through
this weekend. Expect west to northwest wind gusts near 15 mph Monday
afternoon, then occasionally gusty north to east winds will occur
Tuesday. 20-foot winds next Wednesday will be easterly at 10-20 mph
with higher gusts, then winds diminishing to less than 10 mph next
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...Several web pages are headlined on our website that
pertain to the record temperatures that will be occurring during
the Thanksgiving 4 day holiday weekend.

The record high for Tucson on Saturday the 25th is 86 degrees set
way back in 1894. This is currently the oldest daily high
temperature that has stood for 122 years. Current forecast high
on Saturday for Tucson is 88 degrees.

Rainfall at the Tucson airport has been pretty non-existent since
the start of September. With no rain likely to occur during the
remainder of November, the three month period (September 1 through
November 30th) will go into the record books as the DRIEST on
record with a measly 0.12". Ugh.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Cerniglia/Meyer/Francis

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