Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 282258
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
355 PM MST THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD SCALE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE WRN CONUS...WITH A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE NRN
ARIZONA/SRN UTAH BORDER. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EWD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING SHOULD EXTEND MAINLY FROM SRN
PINAL COUNTY NEWD TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

THE FLOW ALOFT FRI WILL GENERALLY BE NWLY ACROSS SE ARIZONA AS THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS FLOW REGIME
WILL PROVIDE PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A BLEND BETWEEN THE DRIER 28/12Z GFS AND WETTER 28/12Z
ECMWF YIELDS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS FRI NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

THE NEXT UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
REGION SAT. THE GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH LIMITING MEASURABLE
PRECIP TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AGAIN SAT NIGHT-SUN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NRN/CENTRAL ARIZONA.
THUS...AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT INCREASED WINDS SUN MAY TRANSLATE
INTO POTENTIAL BLOWING DUST ISSUES SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...APPEARS THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH VERSUS
EARLIER TODAY. AT ANY RATE...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NE OF
TUCSON SUN-MON.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AREA-WIDE MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THEREAFTER...THE GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DEEPENING
UPPER LOW WEST OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST NEXT THUR. STRENGTHENING
SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO DEPICTED ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA...AND THE
GFS DEPICTED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACROSS SERN
SECTIONS BY NEXT THUR EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL ONSET OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. FOR NOW...
HAVE MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE NEXT THUR. AT THIS TIME...
THERE APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS MARKEDLY INCREASED
POPS WARRANTED FOR NEXT FRI.

EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS FRI FROM TUCSON
EWD...BUT HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER VERSUS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WRN DESERTS. WARMER TEMPS WILL OCCUR AREA-WIDE
SAT FOLLOWED BY SOME MINOR COOLING SUN. EXPECT ABOUT 5 DEGS OR SO OF
WARMING MON FOLLOWED BY MARKEDLY WARMER TEMPS TUE-WED. SOME MINOR
COOLING IS ON TAP NEXT THUR BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/00Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF KTUS. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 7-
11K FT AGL. SWLY/WLY SURFACE WIND AT 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 30-45
KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
KDUG...KALK AND KFHU TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS
EVENING AND BECOME TERRAIN DRIVEN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WIND WILL THEN BECOME WLY/NWLY AT 8-15 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING.
20-FT WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30 AND 45
MPH...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON...AND
ESPECIALLY OVER COCHISE COUNTY. THUS...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 151 AND MOST OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152. THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF TUCSON THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH LESS WIND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ503-507>513.

    BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
      AZZ508-512.

    RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ151-152.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GZ



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