Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 040415
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AS OF 04/04Z. ALMOST ZERO ACTIVITY SHOWING UP ON KEMX
RADAR AT THIS TIME AFTER A FEW WEAK SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER EXTREME
WRN PIMA COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CHIRICAHUAS EARLIER THIS EVENING.
AREA TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST
SPINS ITS WAY TOWARD THE EAST. THAT SAID...HAVE STILL OPTED TO
REDUCE POPS/QPFS A BIT THROUGH 04/18Z AS PER LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. HOWEVER...STILL BELIEVE THAT BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE SKY ISLANDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH
04/18Z...BUT DO THINK A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED NEAR AND EAST OF
THE LOWS CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER THE LAST 12-24 HRS. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD SO NO MORE UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN
TONIGHT MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF KTUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND
HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN EXISTS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 3-7K FT AGL. SURFACE
WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR MOST SECTIONS EARLY THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR KSAD WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF TUCSON TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EXISTS WEDNESDAY MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...AND ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH TO THE NEW
MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...20-FOOT WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD.
THEREAFTER...20-FOOT WINDS THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW HAS STOPPED DIGGING S AND HAS STARTED
TO MOVE TO THE E. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES E ACROSS NRN BAJA TONIGHT AND
THEN NORTHERN SONORA WEDNESDAY IT WILL PHASE WITH A TROF DROPPING S
FROM THE GREAT BASIN. BEST MOISTURE FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH END CHANCE POPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND SRN COCHISE
COUNTIES STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THAT STILL MAY
NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. TOTAL QPF IN THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
0.15"-0.40" RANGE...HIGHER IN THE HUACHUCA AND CHIRICAHUA
MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW AMOUNT IN THESE RANGES ABOVE 6500 FEET OF
1-4". ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD POOL MOVING THRU.

TROF AXIS MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A PIECE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND AND COMBINED WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM
THE N...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON HOW LONG THIS GENERALLY DRY TROF
WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA. IF IT HANGS AROUND LONG ENOUGH MAY HAVE
TIME TO DRAW IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE S ACROSS THE ERN ZONES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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