Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 251007
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
305 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A CLEAR SKY PREVAILED ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING.
DEEPEST MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF AZ AND
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PUSHING THRU THAT AREA LATER TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITES. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY UNDER A SUNNY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY ON THIS MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SUNDAY BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY WILL BECOME SW AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF
APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS TROF WILL MOVE INTO WRN AZ WED AND THEN
ACROSS SE AZ ON THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH TROF AXIS MOVING THRU ON THURSDAY...COULD
SEE A QUICK SHOWER UP IN THE WHITES IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THIS TROF WILL KICK UP THE BREEZE THOUGH BOTH DAYS.

DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST
INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST TWO WEEKS. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2015 ARE
LIKELY AS THE MONTH OF MAY CLOSES. MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
ON SUNDAY AND MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT TUCSON WILL BE CLOSE
TO BREAKING THE 100 DEGREES ICE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/12Z.
SKC MOST AREAS. SCTD -SHRA/TS PSBL ACROSS THE WHITE MTNS NE OF KSAD
BTWN 26/19Z AND 27/03Z. SFC WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT
10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL AREA-WIDE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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