Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 270923
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
223 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
HARD FREEZE FOR MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AND WET SYSTEM MOVES IN MIDWEEK.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH SNOW POTENTIALLY REACHING THE VALLEY
FLOORS EAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER FROM YESTERDAYS SYSTEM HAS
EXITED THE AREA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME COOLING TO TAKE
PLACE. MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY NEARED OR DROPPED
BELOW FREEZING. THIS COOLING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE A GOOD FREEZE. A
FREEZE/HARD FREEZE WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR TUCSON AND AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BESIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER OUT EAST.
COMBINE THIS WITH ANOTHER CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND THERE SHOULD ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
ADDED A FREEZE WARNING FOR ZONES 502 AND 505 /THE TOHONO O`ODHAM
NATION AND WESTERN PINAL COUNTY/ AND A HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR
ZONES 504 AND 506.../TUCSON METRO...AND EASTERN PINAL COUNTY./ A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURE
MONDAY ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THOUGH...TUCSON
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR FREEZING AGAIN. NEVERTHELESS...WILL HOLD OFF
ADDING ANY HEADLINES FOR MONDAY.

THEN FOCUS TURNS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES EARLY WEEK. LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AN AREA OF
THIS TROUGH WILL CUT OFF. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR IT TO PICK UP SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEFORE A PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES AROUND IT AND
KICKS THRU THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE TIME THE REGION
RINGS IN THE NEW YEAR. THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE COLD SO SHOULD SEE A
LOWER SNOW LEVELS THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. ALSO...THE TIME OF THE
FROPA WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LOWERING OF SNOW LEVELS DURING THE
EVENT. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF SNOW IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
TUCSON THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING INTO AREAS AROUND
TUCSON AS WELL THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...SHOULD BE A WET BEGINNING TO THE NEW YEAR. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING
BACK THE CONCERN OF FREEZING TEMPERATURE TO AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN A DRY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOWER SNOW LEVELS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR AZZ504-506.

HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
AZZ504-506.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR AZZ501-502-505.

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
AZZ502-505.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MEADOWS
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...MEYER

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





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