Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 101701

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1000 AM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with above normal daytime temperatures
will prevail into Thursday. Cooler temperatures with a slight chance
of valley rain and mountain snow showers will then occur next Friday.


.DISCUSSION...Clear skies prevail across much of southeast Arizona
at this time, except for a few cirriform clouds mainly near the
White Mountains. 10/12Z KTWC sounding depicted a dry profile, with
total precip water value of 0.35 inch. 10/12Z upper air plots
depicted quasi-zonal flow across much of the CONUS, and moderate to
fast wly/nwly flow above 700 mb was across southeast AZ.

Dry conditions will prevail into at least the middle of next week,
and likely through next Thursday, as quasi-zonal flow aloft
continues across this forecast area. Daytime high temperatures will
be well above seasonal normals for the middle of December.

Thereafter, an upper level trough is progged via the 10/12Z GFS and
the 10/00Z CMC/ECMWF to deepen over the western states. There are
differences amongst these solutions regarding the potential amounts
of valley rain/mountain snowfall, which is to be expected at days 7-
8 of the forecast period. The inherited forecast of a slight chance
of showers across much of the area, and a chance of snow showers
across the mountains from northeast of Tucson to the White Mountains,
seems reasonable at this time.


.AVIATION...Valid through 11/18Z.
Clear skies or a FEW clouds above 20k ft AGL into this afternoon,
then SCT-BKN clouds above 15k ft AGL tonight into Sunday morning.
Surface wind variable in direction less than 12 kts through the
forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with above normal temperatures and 20-
foot winds generally less than 15 mph will occur through Thursday. A
trough of low pressure will then bring a chance of valley rain,
mountains snow and cooler temperatures next Friday.





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