Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 271818
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1018 AM PST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A pair of weather systems one from the north and one
from the south...will move across the area today and tonight
bringing showers to primarily the northeastern portions of Lincoln
County and Mohave and southern San Bernardino counties. A quiet
weather pattern and a gradual warming trend will occur through the
end of the week and into the weekend.
&&

.UPDATE...Updated earlier this morning to increase winds across the
western/southern portions of Las Vegas where gusts over 40 MPH have
already been reported. Issued a Wind Advisory for the Las Vegas
Valley, Red Rock Canyon, and the Spring Mountains. Also issued a
Lake Wind Advisory for adverse wind conditions on Lake Mead today. I
also increased PoPs and QPF across our southern areas, especially
southern Mohave County where over an inch of rain is possible.
-Wolcott-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
315 AM PST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday.

A trough over the Pacific Northwest moves into the Great Basin today
with several shortwaves moving through the flow. This will create
breezy to locally windy conditions across much of the region today.
There will be increasing chances for rain/snow today and tonight
with northern Lincoln County and Mohave County...especially the
southern areas...targeted. 3 to 6 inches of snow with local higher
amounts are expected in the northern portions of Lincoln County
generally north of Pioche. Snowfall will also be likely across
Mohave County tonight especially the southern areas which are
forecast to get an influx of tropical moisture. Elevations above
6000 feet could see 4-7 inches of snow while the lower elevations
generally south and east of Kingman could see 1-2 inch rain totals
by Tuesday morning. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for
the aforementioned areas. Models continue to forecast only light
precipitation for the Las Vegas Valley and surrounding mountains.
Temperatures today are expected to be similar to yesterday in areas
not covered by clouds. Cooler temperatures are likely across much of
the southern deserts today.

Showers are expected to linger over Mohave County Tuesday morning
before the trough axis sweeps eastward in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday.

The medium range models continue to indicate a prolonged period of
of dry increasingly mild weather the rest of the week and beyond. A
broad and somewhat flat ridge will extend from the eastern Pacific
inland behind the long wave trough pulling away across the central
U.S. Wednesday. This will hold the rest of the week then flatten
over the weekend as a shortwave trough moves across the Pacific
Northwest. The ridge is then forecast to redevelop over the
southwest states early next week. This pattern will provide a
gradual warming trend with temperatures rebounding to near normal by
Thursday then several degrees above normal over the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Dry conditions are expected in the
valley with a chance of showers over the Spring Mountains today.
Southwest winds 15-25kt will continue through the day. A cold front
will weaken and possibly stall as it reaches the valley tonight.
This could keep winds out a southwest direction longer with only a
weak push of north winds late in the night.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Southwest winds 15-25kts across much of the region
today. Stronger gusts will be common in the lee of the Sierra and
Spring Mountains with gusts of 30-40 kts. A cold front will begin to
push down through southern Nevada during the afternoon and evening,
shifting the winds to the northwest. Showers and lower CIGS are
expected to impact KIFP and KEED late this morning into the
afternoon hours with the other area of concern over northeastern
Lincoln County.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

Near Short Term/Aviation...Salmen
Long Term...Adair

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