Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 162233

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
233 PM PST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Quiet weather will persist through the middle of the
week. A series of storm systems will impact the region from
Wednesday night through early next week bringing more widespread
rain and mountain snow to the region. Temperatures will continue to
run a little below normal.

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday Night.

High pressure will gradually push across California and Nevada
through Tuesday night leading to mostly clear skies with
temperatures slightly below normal. Areas of breezy northerly winds
have been noted today but they should decrease in most areas this
evening with generally light winds on Tuesday. An upper trough
approaching the California coast Wednesday and Wednesday night will
push the ridge off to the east with clouds gradually increasing
across the forecast area. Snow will possible reach the higher
elevations of the Sierra late Wednesday with a chance of
precipitation spreading across most of the forecast area Wednesday
night. Snow levels will start out near 8000 feet late Wednesday
before dropping to roughly 5000 feet late Wednesday night. The
higher elevations of the Sierra could see maybe 5 to 10 inches of
snow Wednesday night. Temperatures during the short term will be a
little below normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

The medium range models continue to indicate a succession of at
least three Pacific storms impacting the region from Thursday
through Monday with only brief breaks between each one. This will
bring the potential for widespread precipitation and periods of
gusty winds. The progressive pattern will favor fast moving open
troughs moving from northwest to southeast which may lead to some
rain shadowing for the Las Vegas Valley and other valleys down wind
of higher terrain to the west or northwest. Confidence remains high
in this pattern but details such as timing will be fine tuned as the
events draw closer.

The first trough will move across the region Thursday and should be
to the east of our region by late Thursday evening. Generally light
precipitation amounts can be expected due to the speed and
trajectory of this system and snow levels will generally be around 5

The next system looks a little more substantial and more moisture
laden and will impact the region Friday and Friday night then pull
away Saturday. Snow levels will drop to around 4 Kft Friday night
and gusty west winds can be expected across the Mojave Desert zones.
The next one will be later Sunday and Monday with snow levels still
around 4 Kft generally. So, it looks like mountains will do quite
well with snowfall. Stay tuned for updates this week as this pattern

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Skies will remain mostly clear through
Tuesday. Confidence in the wind forecast through early this evening
is low. Winds should be from the northeast but could waiver from 010
to 080. Wind speeds will be below 10 knots but could gust to 15
knots briefly. Winds will likely become light and variable by about
04z this evening. Light and variable winds are expected Tuesday.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Outside of the valleys of central Nevada where some low
clouds persist, VFR conditions are expected across the region
through Tuesday. Winds will generally favor a northerly direction at
8-15 kts in most areas, with locally stronger gusts. Northerly winds
will decrease in most areas tonight and lighter winds are expected
areawide by Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotter activation is not expected
through Wednesday.


Short Term/Aviation...Harrison
Long Term.............Adair

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