Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 141756
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
956 AM PST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY AND MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
WHERE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
&&

.UPDATE...

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF A 150+
KT 250-MB ANTICYCLONIC JET. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF
THE JET IS GENERATING ENOUGH ASCENT TO PRODUCE SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS IN MUCH OF CENTRAL NV AND ADJACENT UT THIS MORNING. THESE
WILL BE MIGRATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
PARTICULARLY IN NV AND AZ. BUMPED UP SKY GRIDS A TAD THROUGH THIS
EVENING TO ACCOMMODATE FOR THIS. AT THIS POINT, DO NOT EXPECT THESE
TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
TO JUST BELOW YESTERDAY`S VALUES, SO DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST.

NORTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WITH
BULLHEAD CITY ALREADY GUSTING TO 25 MPH FOR THE PAST HOUR AND
COTTONWOOD COVE REPORTING WINDS TO 20 MPH. UPDATED WIND GRIDS BASED
ON MOST RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE, WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT
OBS. STILL EXPECTING STRONGEST WINDS ON MONDAY, SO DID NOT CHANGE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
200 AM PST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH
REGARDS TO WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10-15
MPH. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH GUST TO
AROUND 30-35 MPH. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE SURFACE
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE AND BRING AN INCREASE TO WINDS
DOWN THE RIVER. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE TO 40 MPH. ALTHOUGH ITS MARGINAL FOR
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED ONE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASED BOATING ACTIVITY FOR THE HOLIDAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL
RUN FROM 4AM MONDAY THROUGH 6PM MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A RETURN TO LIGHTER WINDS ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGING PROGRESSING
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEEPER
MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST OF
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODELS ARE
STILL WAFFLING A LITTLE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES INLAND AND HOW MUCH OF A MOISTURE TAP WILL FEED INTO IT.
THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL BE A QUICK HITTER...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN OR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT. EITHER WAY...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON DRY
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS LIKELY TO RETURN AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN SOME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE ONGOING STREAK
OF 70 DEGREE HIGHS AT KLAS MAY STAY INTACT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING THEN AN INCREASE
IN NORTHEAST WINDS AFTER 19Z. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 7-10KTS
THROUGH 21Z...BUT INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
AROUND 7-9KTS OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...KIFP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS TODAY WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MOST OTHER AREAS WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 10-15KTS. HIGHER WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PLEASE REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHAFER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...MORGAN

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