Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 312135
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
235 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN IMPULSE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DECREASE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF LAS VEGAS GRADUALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK ON IN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

STRONGEST CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS
WEST OF LAS VEGAS AND OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU OF MOHAVE COUNTY.
SHALLOW CONVECTION ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE HIGH DESERT OF SAN
BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES GIVING THOSE REGIONS A MUCH
NEEDED BREAK FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS OF ACTIVITY.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. AM CANCELING THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR HIGH DESERT ZONES IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. EVEN
THOUGH LITTLE IS GOING ON ACROSS CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES RIGHT
NOW, MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA SETTING IT SIGHTS ON OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THEREFORE, DECIDED BEST JUST TO EXTENT THE CURRENT WATCH FOR
LINCOLN, CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS STILL SLATED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT IN TRENDING
TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA. BY MONDAY MORNING...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
INFILTRATE THE AREA...WITH THE ONLY REMAINING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
LINGERING AROUND NORTHERN INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES. POPS WERE
TRENDED BACK AREA WIDE...BUT KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE
SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BY MID-WEEK...MOISTURE SHOULD BE SCOURED OUT OF MUCH OF THE CWA...AS
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSES THE GREAT
BASIN...COURTESY OF A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF OF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS INITIALLY...WITH INCREASED AFTERNOON BREEZES.

THERE ARE HINTS IN BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF TONIGHT IN A POTENTIAL
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WEDNESDAY
EVENING TO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS WOULD AID IN PULLING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE BACK INTO AT LEAST MOHAVE COUNTY FOR LATE WEEK...WHICH
COULD SPELL A RETURN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS WOULD
ALSO INTRODUCE A COOLING TREND AREA WIDE...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
COOLING BACK BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THAT SAID...STANDARD TIMING AND ESPECIALLY STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL RUNS THIS FAR OUT IS ENOUGH TO KEEP
CONFIDENCE LOW IN ANY POTENTIAL SCENARIOS AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED!
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE VALLEY ALONG HIGHWAY 95 SHOULD BRING A WIND SHIFT TO KVGT
AROUND 4 PM AND POTENTIALLY KLAS BY 5 PM. IF IT MATERIALIZES EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8-12 KTS AT KLAS. OTHERWISE LOW CONFIDENCE OF
SEEING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE VALLEY SATURDAY. LOWER CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE
IN HEAVY RAIN. BEATTY, MORMON MESA AND PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDORS
AFFECT BY THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. ALL CORRIDORS LIKELY
AFFECTED SATURDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL BE OVER LINCOLN, CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VSBY ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY
SHRA/TSRA. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT WINDS TO FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTION AND SPEED TRENDS
WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 8K-15K FEET.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE REMAINER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...PULLIN

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