Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 051027
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
327 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN TO PARTS OF THE AREA ON TODAY AS WELL AS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN WESTER PORTIONS OF THE REGION. INCREASING
MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND TAKES HOLD
LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WET AND WILD WILL BE THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH ANOTHER FALL-
LIKE SETUP SHAPING UP ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF OF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AND IS SLATED TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKENDS SYSTEM...THIS ONE WILL
TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

TODAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE
WEST...AS UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AT THE NOSE OF A 100+ KT JET STREAK
AT 250MB WILL COMBINE WITH COLD AIR AT MID LEVELS ON THE ORDER OF -
20 TO -25C AT 500MB AS WELL AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
PROCESSES TO DEVELOP AND SUPPORT CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR COMBINED
WITH EXPECTED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...A
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT IS NOTED THAT LOCAL AND NATIONAL
HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER ON THE WINDS IN THESE AREAS THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS. HOWEVER...LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA REMAINS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z THIS EVENING.

FRIDAY...EXPECT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER... AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INLAND...PROVIDING WIDESPREAD
FORCING AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN AREA-WIDE...ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL POTENTIAL POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST NUISANCE FLOODING IN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. COLD AIR IN PLACE AT MID-LEVELS WILL ENABLE
ANY STRONGER STORMS TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY,
YET SLIDING TO THE NORTHEAST. JET ENERGY WILL BE RIDING DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW, WHICH WILL CREATE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ESMERALDA, NYE, AND INYO COUNTIES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS LESS THAN
FRIDAY. THAT JET ENERGY WILL ALSO CAUSE THE UPPER LOW TO SWING INTO
UTAH AND COLORADO BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE EVEN MORE, WITH OUR SOUTHERN DESERTS LIKELY BEING DRY
SUNDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE GONE BY MONDAY.
HOWEVER, SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY LINCOLN COUNTY. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE ARRIVAL OF RIDGING BEHIND THE LOW. LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HANG ON TO
SOME VERY BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A LOW DIVES INTO MONTANA. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION, YET I`M NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ADD THAT SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS WE GO FROM 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LATER TODAY AT THE TERMINAL...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25KTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE BEATTY
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL AND ALL APPROACH
CORRIDORS ON FRIDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS...ICING...LOW CIGS AND
TURBULENCE EXPECTED TO BE THREATS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER
TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 10 TO 20
KTS AND GUSTS 20-30 KTS. SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KBIH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...FAIR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES ON FRIDAY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS...ICING...LOW CIGS AND TURBULENCE EXPECTED TO BE THREATS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PULLIN
LONG TERM...PADDOCK

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