Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 281000
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
300 AM PDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS... A strong disturbance will continue to dig into the
southwestern US today, resulting in another round of gusty north
or northwest winds, especially down the Colorado River Valley.
Winds will continue into Saturday before diminishing Saturday
evening as the system pulls away from the area. Today and Saturday
will be on the cool side, however a warming trend is expected to
start on Sunday. Warmer weather and dry conditions will continue
through next week as a ridge eventually sets up over the western
US by the middle to end of next week. Above normal temperatures
are possible by the end of next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday Night

Current water vapor image shows a fairly strong shortwave digging
into NV early this morning. Surface winds ahead of this feature
have already begun to pick up, with a gusts over 30 MPH reported
at times overnight. Models continue to show this system
strengthening and quickly dropping south and east today...bringing
with it a period of gusty north to northwest winds. Trended
towards the stronger hi- res models for the wind forecast today
through Saturday, which seem to be doing a better job with the
breezy winds overnight. This however didnt change much to the
previous wind forecast, with the strongest winds through the
Colorado River Basin. Still some uncertainty as to how strong
winds will get through this area, however it is likely that there
will be two main periods of higher impact winds. The first round
will occur this morning until noon with winds easily peaking over
40 MPH. Bumped up gusts a bit during this time frame, with a high
end wind advisory still holding. Gusts to around 50MPH are
possible, mainly this morning, with closer to 40 MPH winds
continuing the rest of the day, north winds will pick up again
Saturday morning on the back side of the low as it moves into the
Central Plains to bring another round of higher impact winds to
the Colorado River Valley. Dont expected winds during this time
to be as strong as what we will see today, however gusts to 40 MPH
are still possible through Saturday afternoon. Winds will finally
diminish Saturday evening as the low pressure system moves away
and the gradient slackens.

The only shot at precipitation from today`s weather system will
be over parts of Lincoln County. Dry weather will return for
Saturday.

After a cool day today and Saturday, temperature should rebound
again for Sunday as winds diminish and warm air filters back into
the region.
&&

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.

Good model agreement is leading to fairly high confidence in the
forecast for the long term. A dry northwest flow will persist over
the forecast area through Wednesday  before high pressure sitting
off the California coast starts building into the southwestern US.
This will result in an extended period of dry conditions with mostly
sunny skies. Temperatures will warm to 5 to 10 degrees above normal
for Thursday or Friday as an upper level ridge moves overhead. Winds
should not be as much of an issue as they were this past week with
nothing of real impact noted in the model guidance.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Northeast winds are expected to continue
overnight with speeds generally between 15-25 kts. Winds are
expected to once again shift back to a more northwest direction
after 14z and remain in the 330-350 deg direction for the remainder
of the afternoon. Speeds between 15-25 kts are expected. Mainly high
clouds expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Breezy, north to northwesterly winds are expected over
the majority of the area through the day. Wind speeds between 15-25
kts are expected over most areas with the strongest winds down the
Colorado River. Winds down the river will likely gusts to around 40-
45 kts at times with the strongest winds between 15-19z. Mainly high
clouds expected.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry and breezy conditions are expected over much of
the forecast area over the next 24 to 36 hours. Stronger
northerly winds are expected through Saturday, particularly down
the Colorado River Valley. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect
for the Colorado River Valley through Saturday evening as dry
conditions and strong winds will exist. While critically dry
conditions will remain into next week, wind will decrease to well
beneath red flag thresholds by Sunday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant wind impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

Synopsis...AA
Short Term...AA
Long Term...AA
Aviation...Gorelow

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