Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 271750 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
948 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
&&

.UPDATE...RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
OUT OF CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES INTO LINCOLN COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH. ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. CEILINGS
STARTING TO LIFT WITH PATCHES OF BLUE SKY BECOMING VISIBLE. PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEND OUT ANOTHER
UPDATE AROUND 10 AM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...IMPROVING CEILINGS CONTINUE WITH BREAKS
IN OVERCAST ALREADY MORE APPARENT OVER THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
WITH BASES AROUND 4K OR 5K FEET BEFORE CEILINGS SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 9KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM INYO COUNTY
NORTHEAST INTO LINCOLN COUNTY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LOW
CEILINGS/FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE. LOCALIZED FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
345 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. OVERALL THE RAIN EVENT HAS UNFOLDED PRETTY
MUCH AS ANTICIPATED WITH BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER INCH FALLING
IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. AMOUNTS ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND
ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VARIED BETWEEN A TENTH AND AS MUCH
AS A HALF AN INCH NEAR LAKE HAVASU.  PARTS OF SOUTHERN INYO COUNTY
HAVE ALSO RECEIVED A GOOD SOAKING OF BETWEEN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
AND NEARLY SEVEN-TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS.

AS THE TROUGH DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING IT WILL
DRAG THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WITH IT... ALLOWING FOR THINGS
TO DRY OUT BY SUNRISE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE GREAT
BASIN. FURTHER NORTH...RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BUT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET.

BY TONIGHT THE TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AS THIS SYSTEM NEVER REALLY SCOURED THINGS OUT
AS IT DEPARTED...SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR AREAS OF FOG OR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW I HAVE LEFT THAT OUT OF THE GRIDS.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC IMPULSE...TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO EXIST BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. THAT
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT REGARDING THE LOCATION
OF HIGHEST POPS. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AREA
WIDE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO JUSTIFY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS...THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR EXAMPLE...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN POINTING TOWARD EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...IN
PARTICULAR MOHAVE COUNTY...AS THE AREA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THIS AREA JUSTIFIED AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR FRIDAY. WHILE
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY THAT A DRYING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
THE ENTIRE CWA SEEING DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN AS THE LOW DEPARTS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NORMAL WIND PRONE AREAS... ESPECIALLY
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...LIKELY BEING AFFECTED THE MOST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD BEFORE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OCCURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SNOW
THAT OBSERVED.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PULLIN

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