Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 050453
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
952 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PROVIDE
SOUTHWEST FLOW...GRADUALLY DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME COOLING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THROUGH TUESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF INYO COUNTY...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO KEEP GOING IN AND AROUND DEATH VALLEY
NATIONAL PARK THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY
WEAK LOOKING ON RADAR, IT IS HARD TO STILL DISCOUNT A THUNDERSTORM
OUT THERE IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER, GIVEN TRENDS POPS WERE INCREASED
AND THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WAS EXPANDED IN THIS AREA FOR THIS
EVENING AS WELL AS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NYE COUNTY WHERE
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT LATER ON BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST/WEST STEERING
FLOW. THE HRRR SUGGESTS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HERE SHOULD WANE BY 08Z
SUNDAY OR SO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO SHIFT FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT THERE WILL BE A SHIFT BUT IT MAY
NOT BE UNTIL CLOSER TO 06Z-07Z SUNDAY AS SPEEDS REMAIN WEAK AND
SUPPORT ALOFT IS WEAK AT THIS TIME OF NIGHT TO ALLOW ANY HIGHER
WINDS TO MIX DOWN. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS
AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EXPECTED. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10K-12K FEET. LOCAL AREAS
OF FU ALOFT FROM FIREWORK SMOKE IS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA SHOULD END BY 08Z OR SO SUNDAY ACROSS INYO AND
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WE SHOULD SEE
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP AFTER 18Z MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
INYO, ESMERALDA, LINCOLN, CENTRAL NYE, AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTIES AND IN THE SPRING MTS AND SHEEP RANGE. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS AND VSBY/CIGS REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WINDS TO FAVOR
TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND DIRECTIONS GUSTING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KTS FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 756 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOST EAGER TO GO IN INYO COUNTY THIS
EVENING, WHICH GIVEN THE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFFSHORE MAKES SENSE AS THIS IS HELPING TO LIFT THE AIR PARCELS IN
THE NORTHWEST CWFA. THE ONLY CHANGE THIS EVENING WAS TO INCREASE
POPS OVER NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE CONVECTION HAS ALSO
MANAGED TO FIRE. THE ENVIRONMENT HERE IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AND GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FEATURES THIS AREA SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY
END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

LAS VEGAS ONLY HIT 102 TODAY WHICH SNAPPED THE STRETCH OF
CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES. AN UPDATED RER AND
GRAPHICS HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH MORE INFORMATION.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 228 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
WITH MOISTURE REMAINING UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EASTERN SIERRA AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...AS WELL AS MOHAVE COUNTY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MODEST PUSH OF MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY...WHICH MAY
ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THERE. ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHICH
MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
INYO...ESMERALDA... CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
THE COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DRYING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH DRY AND STABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERTAKING THE FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY THE
DRIER AIR SHOULD ELIMINATE THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND LATE IN
THE WEEK. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE WHICH WILL CAUSE SURFACE
TEMPS TO TREND COOLER FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...CZYZYK/PADDOCK

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