Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 302120
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
220 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL FADE TO SUNNY SKIES
AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT
ON SUNDAY. AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ON TOP OF THE AREA CURRENTLY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH LAS VEGAS SEEING ITS
FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR TODAY. A BAND OF RELATIVELY THIN
CIRRUS IS TRAVERSING THE AREA AND WILL EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE...BUT THAT WILL ONLY AID IN BETTER MIXING AND EVEN HOTTER
CONDITIONS. ON AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING ARE EXPECTED
WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 104 IN LAS VEGAS WHICH WILL TIE THE
CURRENT RECORD FOR THE DAY SET BACK IN 2002. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS GUSTING TO OVER 30 MPH. THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ON TUESDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO LEVELS THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THEIR SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP KICK
UP WINDS AND POSSIBLY BRING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS AND
ECMWF STILL SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
STRONGEST SOLUTION WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND MOVING OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING AWAY. THE GFS HAS AN OPEN TROUGH OFF
THE CENTRAL CAL COAST THAT MEANDERS DOWN ALONG THE COAST AFTER
FORMING A CLOSED LOW THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN INTO NORTHERN BAJA
SUNDAY. THE GEM FEATURES ON OPEN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN MOVES EAST
SATURDAY. THE HIGH SPREAD OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE DAY 5-7 TIME FRAME. FOR
INSTANCE, THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT AT DIFFERENT TIMES/LOCATIONS AND WHETHER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SETTLE IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF
BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINAL TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING AOB 10KTS UNDER
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. GUSTIER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 30KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF SITES TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED AT NEARLY
ALL TAF SITES. STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTS...20 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CZYZYK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

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