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000
FXUS65 KVEF 200341 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
842 PM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING LOCAL GUSTY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. A STORM MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY WILL BRING PERSISTENT BREEZY CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION FROM MID WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CLIPPED THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF LINCOLN COUNTY HAVE SHIFTED EAST INTO CENTRAL
UTAH THIS EVENING. UPDATED TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THE GRIDS.

NORTH/SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE RELAXING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY ELEVATING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
256 PM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE LINCOLN COUNTY
PANHANDLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA ON
THE OTHER HAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER A DRY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON MONDAY BEFORE A
PACIFIC STORM MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND THEN
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH UTAH AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT WILL CREATE NORTH WINDS OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE
NORTH WIND PRONE AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH MAY BE SEEN. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE LOW FORMS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA.
INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY
THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY BEHIND THE WEAK COLD
FRONT...BUT THEN THE INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM...THE LARGE LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE DOMINATING FEATURE THURSDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN ACROSS THE CWA. THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WHICH COULD PUSH WINDS INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY IF THIS
MODEL SOLUTION VERIFIES. IT COULD ALSO CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS COMBINE WITH DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN LIFTS IT INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA SATURDAY...LEAVING
ONLY A WEAK REMNANT TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS
FEATURE THEN IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACTING AS A DAMPER TO
INCREASING TEMPERATURES.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND RAW MODEL OUTPUT POINTS TO TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO JUST UNDER SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LAS VEGAS
NEXT THU-SAT IS THE LOW 90S SO OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...AVERAGE WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH AT 10-13KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS
AND GUSTY MONDAY. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-20KTS
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN NORTHEAST MONDAY AT 10-15KTS AND GUSTY. THE
STRONGEST WIND CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
WHERE NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30KTS IS EXPECTED. FEW-SCT CU OVER
EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...
OTHERWISE CLEAR.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE DISTRICT
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
WIDESPREAD WINDS OVER 35 MPH WILL BE SEEN. HOWEVER LOCAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 MPH ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BULLHEAD CITY. DUE TO WHAT NOW
APPEARS TO BE A MORE LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE GUSTY WINDS...THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR AZZ101...CAZ229...AND NVZ466
HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL STILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED HOWEVER ON MONDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL
DROP TO BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH SINGLE DIGIT VALUES EXPECTED IN MANY
AREAS.

THE LONGER RANGE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP TO BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA BEGINNING IN THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT ON TUESDAY AND THEN SPREADING DISTRICT WIDE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND
45 MPH MAY BE SEEN ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO FURTHER FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED AS WE MOVE INTO THE WORK
WEEK.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
PREV DISCUSSION...JENSEN/SALMEN

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