Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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AXUS72 KGSP 230244

1044 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016


...Drought conditions improve for much of Western North Carolina
and Upstate South Carolina, while severe drought conditions
persist across northeast Georgia and parts of northwest South

August has brought a much needed and welcomed above-normal
rainfall to much of the region, though there are still large
areas of the southern North Carolina Piedmont and eastern South
Carolina Piedmont that remain below-normal for the past 30 days
and annual deficits still persist across all of Upstate South
Carolina, northeast Georgia, southwest North Carolina, and the
North Carolina Piedmont.  Therefore, while there has been some
recent improvement in agricultural conditions, soil moisture,
groundwater, and streamflows, some major reservoirs are still
below target pools requiring drought management and detrimental
agricultural impacts from the dryness through July have already
occurred.  The overall forecast calls for above-normal
temperatures and below-normal precipitation to persist into
early September and perhaps beyond, resulting in persisting and
slightly expanding drought conditions heading into early autumn.

Drought intensity occupying the largest surface area in each
county is listed below...


            AS OF:     AS OF:                  AS OF:    AS OF:
        07-14/08-18    08/18                07-14/08-18  08/18

Alexander  NO/NO   No Drought   : Jackson      D2/D1  Moderate
Avery      D0/NO   No Drought   : Lincoln      D0/D0  Abnrmlly Dry
Buncombe   D2/D0   Abnrmlly Dry : Macon        D2/D1  Moderate
Burke      NO/NO   No Drought   : Madison      D1/D0  Abnrmlly Dry
Cabarrus   D0/NO   No Drought   : McDowell     D1/NO  No Drought
Caldwell   NO/NO   No Drought   : Mecklenburg  NO/D0  Abnrmlly Dry
Catawba    NO/NO   No Drought   : Mitchell     D1/NO  No Drought
Cleveland  D0/NO   No Drought   : Polk         D0/NO  No Drought
Davie      NO/NO   No Drought   : Rowan        NO/NO  No Drought
Gaston     D0/D0   Abnrmlly Dry : Rutherford   D0/NO  No Drought
Graham     D2/D1   Moderate     : Swain        D1/D0  Abnrmlly Dry
Haywood    D2/D1   Moderate     : Transylvania D2/D0  Abnrmlly Dry
Henderson  D2/NO   No Drought   : Union        NO/NO  No Drought
Iredell    NO/NO   No Drought   : Yancey       D1/D0  Abnrmlly Dry


            AS OF:     AS OF:                  AS OF:    AS OF:
        07-14/08-18    08/18                07-14/08-18  08/18

Abbeville  D2/D3   Extreme      : Laurens      D1/D1  Moderate
Anderson   D2/D2   Severe       : Oconee       D3/D1  Moderate
Cherokee   D0/D0   Abnrmlly Dry : Pickens      D2/D1  Moderate
Chester    NO/D0   Abnrmlly Dry : Spartanburg  D1/D0  Abnrmlly Dry
Greenville D1/D0   Abnrmlly Dry : Union        NO/D0  Abnrmlly Dry
Greenwood  D2/D2   Severe       : York         D0/D0  Abnrmlly Dry


            AS OF:     AS OF:                  AS OF:    AS OF:
        07-14/08-18    08/18                07-14/08-18  08/18

Elbert     D2/D2   Severe       : Hart         D3/D2   Severe
Franklin   D3/D3   Extreme      : Rabun        D2/D1   Moderate
Habersham  D2/D1   Moderate     : Stephens     D3/D2   Severe



..Upstate South Carolina and Northeast Georgia...

The recent rains have come too late for dryland (unirrigated) corn
crops which have dried up across much of the severe and extreme
drought regions of northeast Georgia and northwest South Carolina.
To avoid a total loss, farmers are allowing grazing or bush
hogging to make hay out of the remnant corn crops as a last resort.
To further complicate conditions, fall armyworms are attacking
pastures that have otherwise survived the dry summer and there is
an insecticide shortage being reported due to the large

Unfortunately, several hay producers are reporting significant
losses despite the recent rainfall.  While for some the second
cutting of hay will be short if it can occur at all across the
region, others are reporting that a consistent near-normal to
slightly-above normal rainfall may be enough to significantly
recover the second cutting for their farms.

Finally, several livestock producers are reporting that pastures
are greening up significantly due to the beneficial rainfall
throughout August. Overall, cattle are being sustained by keeping
the herds moving across the pastureland to prevent cattle from
chewing the grass all the way to the root system.  This allows
grass to respond to the recent rainfall and recover while the
cattle feed elsewhere, sustaining the pasture.  Nevertheless, hay
was prematurely needed through July and hay may still be needed
prematurely heading into the early fall if rainfall does not

..Western North Carolina...

Fewer reports have come out of western North Carolina.  Hay
production, dryland (unirrigated) corn, and pastures suffered
losses through early August. However, with the widespread
rainfall observed during the month of August, improving
conditions and greening pastures are being reported.
Unfortunately, much of the rainfall has come too late in the
growing season to recover some crops and the second cutting of
hay will remain very short if it can occur at all.

Through early August, farmers relying on drip irrigation or
growing dryland crops experienced significant losses, and it
remains to be seen how recent rainfall surpluses will improve
the late-season harvest of crops like winter squash, which was
being prematurely harvested into early August due to poor soil
moisture levels.  A primary concern during the summer months is
the supply of consistent moderate rainfall to adequately wet the
deeper soils and sustain crops.  Heavy rainfall over short
periods of time do little to recover damaged vegetable crops
because of excessive runoff.  Rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.50
inches every other day are far more beneficial to crop growth
and production.


Several lakes within the region are experiencing reservoir
levels well below summer full pool targets.  Duke Energy, the
TVA, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers are enacting drought
management plans and reducing discharge where necessary as they
try to conserve pool.  However, rainfall deficits are inevitably
having at least some impact to boat ramps, docks, beaches, and
other recreational areas across major lakes.  Lake visitors and
residents are being advised to take greater care when boating,
swimming, and fishing as the declining reservoir levels are
revealing additional obstructions or bringing underwater
obstructions closer to the surface.  Swimmers are encouraged to
stay within designated swimming areas.  Dock and marina
operators may be required to move or close their docks to stay
within safe lake levels.

Streamflows have improved across several basins and there have
been no known significant impacts to stream canoeing, kayaking,
tubing, or fishing across the region. However, during periods
of drought and reduced streamflow, some financial impacts to
related businesses and tourism is possible.  There have been
sporadic reports of reduced fish catch, including along the
Tuckasegee and associated tributaries.  Furthermore, streams
that are running below-normal pose a risk for all users as
additional protrusions become visible.  All mainstem rivers
and major tributaries are currently runnable for below-normal
to near-normal flows, but users are advised to exercise caution
along below-normal runs.


The Keowee-Toxaway basin is currently in Stage 1 of the Low
Inflow Protocol established by the Keowee-Toxaway Drought
Management Advisory Group.  Therefore, voluntary water
conservation is encouraged for all users of the Keowee-Toxaway
basin water supply, including municipalities and other large
users.  Residents on Lake Keowee and Lake Jocassee being asked
to voluntarily reduce their water usage for irrigation to two
days each week (Tuesday and Saturday).

For additional information, please refer to the following website:

Nantahala and Tuckasegee River basin reservoirs, including
Nantahala Lake, Bear Creek Lake, Lake Glenville, Tanasee Creek
Lake, and Wolf Creek Lake are in Stage 1 of the Low Inflow
Protocol established by Duke Energy.  This has the principal
effect of reducing releases to conserve pool, but may also
impact water supply for any municipalities or residents that
rely on these lakes.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is currently in Level 1 of the
Corps` Drought Management Plan and this may begin to impact
local municipalities that rely on Lake Hartwell, Richard B.
Russell Lake, and Lake Thurmond for water supply.

For additional information, please refer to the following website:

Finally, voluntary water restrictions are in place in the towns
of Seneca and Union, SC.  Elsewhere, normal summertime outdoor
water use restrictions may be in place in some local communities.
The public in encouraged to contact their local municipalities to
confirm the lack of water restrictions in their specific area.


There are no large incident fires across the forecast area at
this time with only a few small fires observed over the past 24

The Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook from the National
Interagency Fire Center calls for increasing to above-normal fire
potential in September becoming above-normal for October through
November for the entire region.

              Current         KBDI*     KBDI Departure
Region        Fire            (8/22)    From Normal
              Danger (8/22)             (8/21)

NC Piedmont   Moderate-High | 401-700 | -100-+400 Abv Nrml
NC Foothills  Moderate      |<200-300 | -400--50  Blw Nrml
NC Nrn Mnts   Low-Moderate  |<200     | -400-100  Blw Nrml
NC Cntl Mnts  Low           | 201-400 | -200-+50  Slight Blw Nrml
NC Srn Mnts   Low           |<200-300 | -400-100  Blw Nrml

SC Mnts/      Low           |<200-300 | -50-+400  Abv Nrml
SC Piedmont   Low-Moderate  | 201-600 | +100-400  Abv Nrml

GA NE Mnts/   Low           | 201-300 | -50-+100  Near Nrml
GA Piedmont   Low-Moderate  | 301-500 | -50-+200  Slight Abv Nrml

*KBDI is the Keetch-Byram Drought Index and measures the impact of
evapotranspiration and precipitation on moisture deficiencies in
the upper soil layer and the layer of decomposing organic
materials just above the soil.  A value of zero represents no
moisture deficiency while a value of 800 is the maximum deficiency
measured.  This means for a value of 800, it will take 8.00 inches
of rainfall in 24-hours to reduce the index to zero or saturation.



The latter week of July featured persistently hot temperatures,
but scattered showers and thunderstorms accompanied the heat most
days resulting in locally heavy rainfall.  Coverage reflected a
traditional summertime pattern.  While not everyone saw rainfall
in late July, the pattern transitioned heading into the first
week of August as a couple of disturbances aloft moved through
the region, greatly increasing rainfall coverage.

Thereafter, the subtropical ridge strengthened off the Atlantic
coastline and expanded west over our area while a weak but very
moist tropical low developed in the northeast Gulf of Mexico.
As the low migrated slowly west, the region experienced a period
of persistent and deep southeasterly flow from the Atlantic.
This promoted warm, moist tropical air to move into the region
from the Atlantic and scattered to widespread precipitation
occurred as the tropical airmass was forced up the rising
elevation of the Appalachian foothills and east-facing slopes of
the Blue Ridge Escarpment and adjacent Appalachian Mountains.
During this time, temperatures warmed aloft as well, increasing
the efficiency of precipitation and resulting in heavier
rainfall totals compared to typical summertime showers and storms.
Furthermore, flow aloft was very weak during this time frame,
resulting in slower storm motions and also contributing to the
heavier rainfall.  Fortunately, there lacked a concentrated
large-scale source of forcing to cause a more widespread heavy
rainfall and flood potential as the low pressure system
responsible for flooding rains across the Gulf Coast remained
well to our south through the period.

Nevertheless, during the period from August 2nd through August
10th, the Appalachian foothills observed rainfall accumulations
ranging from 2-8 inches while the Blue Ridge and adjacent
mountains observed widespread 5-11 inches of rainfall.  This
significantly improved annual rainfall deficits across these
regions, and largely ameliorated the drought across the NC
southern mountains from Buncombe and Henderson County to
southeastern Macon County.

By the middle of August, the warm and humid, but stable
subtropical ridge dominated the weather pattern across the
region and provided a brief period of only isolated shower and
storm coverage.  However, the atmosphere grew more unstable as
the ridge retreated in advance of a very slow cold frontal
passage and rainfall coverage increased yet again from August
18th through August 21st.  The passage of this front will
result in initially much drier and somewhat cooler conditions
beginning the latter third of August.

The prevailing tropical weather pattern resulted in high
temperatures near or just above normal, but the very moist
airmass kept the air uncomfortably humid and prevented
overnight temperatures from dropping as much as normally
expected.  This resulted in a rare streak of five consecutive
days of record high minimum temperatures for the official
climate site at Asheville Regional Airport from August 8th
through August 12th (71, 71, 71, 71, and 72, respectively).
Asheville also had a record daily rainfall total of 1.62
inches on August 8th and broke another daily record with
1.53 inches on August 19th.  Asheville is now only 2 inches
short of their normal rainfall since January 1st.  Charlotte
Douglas International Airport tied the record high minimum
temperature on July 27th (76) and broke the record on July
28th (78) and August 17th (75), but remains over 6 inches
below their normal rainfall since January 1st.  Finally,
Greenville-Spartanburg International Airport also tied their
record high minimum temperature on July 28th (76) and on August
12th (75) and has reduced the annual deficit to-date to just
above 3 inches.


                             July   Dept.     %
                             2016   from     of  Driest     Wet
City          County       Precip   Nrml   Nrml    Rank    Rank
                             (in)   (in)    (%)

Anderson    | Anderson    | 1.28 | -2.38 |   35 |   8th | >25th
AVL Airport | Buncombe    | 4.39 | +0.08 |  102 | >25th | >25th
Clayton     | Rabun       | 7.07 | +1.33 |  123 | >25th | >25th
CLT Airport | Mecklenburg | 1.55 | -2.13 |   42 |  10th | >25th
Elberton    | Elbert      | 2.02 | -2.91 |   41 |   9th | >25th
GSP Airport | Spartanburg | 5.10 |  4.80 |  106 | >25th |  23rd
Hickory     | Catawba     | 8.44 | +4.00 |  190 | >25th |   4th
Lenoir      | Caldwell    | 4.91 | +0.06 |  101 | >25th | >25th
Marshall    | Madison     | 3.78 | -0.37 |   91 | >25th | >25th
Salisbury   | Rowan       | 3.60 | -0.28 |   93 | >25th | >25th
Walhalla    | Oconee      | 2.79 | -2.30 |   55 |  21st | >25th
Waynesville | Haywood     | 3.73 | +0.03 |  101 | >25th | >25th



Overall, development of a subtropical ridge over the SE US will
result in late summer heat and well below-normal precipitation
through at least the next 7 days.  The mountains and foothills
will maintain the best chances for widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms during the period, while the piedmont will see
very little rainfall.


              Forecasted   Normal       Departure
Region        Precip**     Precip       from Normal
              (in)         (in)         Classification

NC Piedmont   0.01-0.25 |  0.75-1.25 |  Much Below Normal
NC Foothills  0.25-0.50 |  0.75-1.25 |  Below Normal
NC Nrn Mnts   0.50-1.00 |  0.75-1.75 |  Slightly Below Normal
NC Cntl Mnts  0.25-0.75 |  0.50-2.00 |  Below Normal
NC Srn Mnts   0.50-0.75 |  0.75-1.75 |  Below Normal

SC Mnts/      0.25-0.50 |  0.75-1.75 |  Much Below Normal
SC Piedmont   0.01-0.25 |  0.50-1.00 |  Much Below Normal

GA NE Mnts/   0.25-0.75 |  0.75-1.50 |  Below Normal
GA Piedmont   0.10-0.50 |  0.75-1.25 |  Much Below Normal

* The weather, temperature, and precipitation outlook is based
on the best available guidance and weather pattern analysis at
the issuance time of this statement.

**In the convective season, forecasted precipitation will not
account for very localized areas of higher accumulations due to
intense rainfall or for very localized areas of minimal
rainfall due to the spotty nature of convective activity.

..8-14-DAY OUTLOOK*...

Overall, below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperature
chances dominate during this period as the aforementioned
subtropical ridge of high pressure anchors overhead or very
nearby and the associated sinking airmass keeps the region warm
and dry. A weak cold front is expected settle across the region
around August 28th and slowly dissipate nearby but the best
moisture and corresponding rainfall chances may stay confined
to the mountains and remain limited.  Another round of
persistent and moist low-level easterly flow may setup across
the region heading towards the end of August.  This as another
front approaches the area from the west in early September and
the ridge starts to break down.  The combination of these
features may result in increased coverage of showers and
thunderstorms from late August into early September, especially
along the favorable regions in the Foothills and eastern-facing
slopes of the Blue Ridge Escarpment and adjacent mountains.
However, the passage of this front will likely usher in another
taste of fall, with cooler and drier conditions persisting for
at least a few days.

Finally, we are approaching the historical peak of the Atlantic
tropical cyclone season.  As we head into late August, the
Atlantic Ocean is becoming more favorable for tropical
development and several features are already being monitored.
However, it is much too early to say with any skill whether or
not these features will strengthen into actual cyclones and
whether or not those cyclones will threaten our region.  A
persistent ridge of high pressure is forecasted to remain across
our region through the next 5-7 days.  This will work to keep
any tropical cyclones to our south or east.  Thereafter, the
ridge is expected to weaken and it will be during this period,
as a trough moves in from the west, when the region will be more
vulnerable to a tropical cyclone, IF one exists.  In this
scenario, a tropical cyclone making landfall in the Gulf of
Mexico will be more likely to impact our region with heavy
rainfall than a tropical cyclone approaching the Atlantic

* The weather, temperature, and precipitation outlook is based
on the best available guidance and weather pattern analysis at
the issuance time of this statement.


Typically, the weather pattern from September into October is
one of transition from summer to early fall and it is during
this time that fronts can still stall across our region with
lingering deep tropical moisture, resulting in prolonged periods
of heavy rainfall.  The tropics also remain active during the
period and the region remains susceptible to enhanced rainfall
from tropical disturbances.

However, the current guidance suggests this year that there is
a better chance (approximately 30-40%) for below-normal
precipitation and equal-chances for above-, below- or
near-normal temperatures through September.


For the period of September through November 2016, there is an
approximately 30-40% chance for below-normal precipitation and
a 40-50% chance for above-normal precipitation.


The eastern Pacific is currently ENSO-Neutral, however La Nina
conditions are forecasted to develop heading into the fall and
winter, with the Climate Prediction Center forecasting a 55-60%
chance of La Nina development during this timeframe.
Comparisons to past La Nina events suggest the southeast U.S.
may experience a warmer and drier winter; however, this is not
a guarantee as not all previous La Nina events resulted in
warmer and drier conditions.  The warmer and drier conditions
result from a jet stream that is, on average, further north
than normal, making it more difficult for the southeast U.S.
to experience the large-scale forcing needed for widespread
rainfall.  However, our region will be closer to the
retreating jet stream and for us the signal for a drier and
warmer winter is not as strong.  Therefore, there remains a
chance that our winter will be closer to normal in terms of


Overall, we have been very fortunate to receive beneficial
rainfall across many parts of the region without experiencing
scattered or widespread flooding. The rainfall has improved
streamflows across much of the region, especially for the
southern North Carolina mountains and all regional foothills.
The primary exception to this rule was across the southern
North Carolina Piedmont. The rainfall was substantial enough
to improve streamflows even along some of the mainstem rivers,
notably the French Broad River.  There have been some
localized flash flood events, specifically in Swain, McDowell,
and Iredell counties.  The city of Statesville and Fourth
Creek, which runs through the city limits, experienced flash
flooding on August 3rd from 4-8 inches of very localized
rainfall occurring over only a few hours.  These events
prompted water rescues and flooded some homes, campgrounds,
roads, and other points of interest.

The drought has been significantly ameliorated across the upper
French Broad River Basin, such that additional significant
rainfall events may increase the risk of mainstem flooding in
Transylvania, Henderson, and Buncombe counties.  Elsewhere,
mainstem river flooding is not likely through September.
Nevertheless, much of the North Carolina Piedmont and Foothills
are no longer experiencing drought conditions and here the
flash flood threat is at seasonal levels.

Elsewhere across the area, streamflows have generally improved
with the primary exception being across the southern North
Carolina Piedmont.


It is very important to note that flash flooding and flooding
of smaller tributaries is still very possible during periods of
drought.  Several important and damaging flash floods have
already been observed this summer.  Residents are strongly
encouraged to heed related flood advisories and warnings, even
during significant drought.


..Well Measurements (Depth Below Ground Surface in Feet)...

                                                      Date of
                              Depth   Aug**   Record  Record
                              8/21    Median  Lowest  Level
County       City             (ft)    (ft)    (ft)

Burke      Glen Alpine      12.47 | 12.75 | 13.84 | 09/04/11
Caldwell     Granite Falls    19.87 | 19.90 | 24.38 | 11/18/11
Catawba      Oxford Resrch St 38.70 | 39.92 | 42.09 | 01/14/13
Gaston       Pasour Mtn       34.26 | 35.26 | 44.66 | 01/31/13
Mcdowell     Pleasant Gardens 29.54 | 29.85 | 31.89 | 11/29/10
Union (NC)   Mineral Springs  36.01 | 39.34 | 42.70 | 01/10/13
York         York Co Airport  23.59 | 24.85 | 29.69 | 12/13/12

* Note that groundwater is measured as depth below the surface,
unlike streamflow and reservoir data which is the reverse or
height above the surface.  Therefore, the higher the depth value,
the less the groundwater supply because the groundwater level is
further from the surface.

**Current depth values that are larger than the monthly median
can be loosely correlated to drier-than-normal conditions while
current depth values that are smaller than the monthly median
can be loosely correlated to wetter-than-normal conditions.

                                                      Date of
                              Depth   %ile    Record  Record
                              8/21    ***     Lowest  Level
County       City             (ft)            (ft)

Chester      Leeds Road       85.41 | >90th | 94.52 | 01/12/14
Davie        Mocksville       17.51 | 50-75 | 23.15 | 08/30/02
Haywood     near Cruso        5.99 | 10-25 |  6.96 | 09/12/02
Iredell     Langtree         27.59 | <10th | 32.90 | 06/21/16
Oconee       Oconee Statn Rd  29.32 | 50-75 | 32.08 | 12/31/08
Rowan        Barber            8.41 | 25-50 | 11.15 | 09/14/02
Spartanburg  Croft State Park 44.74 | 25-50 | 51.69 | 03/17/13
Transylvania Blantyre         29.82 | 50-75 | 42.19 | 12/12/08
Transylvania Pisgah Forest    15.87 | 25-50 | 17.86 | 08/25/08

***The percentile (%ile) values can be interpreted as follows:

Less than 10th percentile    - Well-Below Normal
10th-25th percentile         - Below Normal
25th-50th percentile         - Slightly Below Normal/Near Normal
50th-75th percentile         - Slightly Above Normal/Near Normal
75th-90th percentile         - Above Normal
Greater than 90th percentile - Well-Above Normal


Total soil moisture anomalies as determined by the Climate
Prediction Center (CPC) as of August 21st are near-zero across
northeast Georgia, Upstate South Carolina and portions of the
southern and central North Carolina mountains.  Soil moisture
anomalies of 20-40 mm above normal are calculated across the
North Carolina foothills, while anomalies of 40-60 mm above
normal are calculated across the northwest Piedmont of North

The Crop Moisture Index from the CPC, which is a weekly
measurement that compares the short-term (less than one month)
needs to the available water within a shallow soil profile,
indicates near-normal crop moisture values across northeast
Georgia and the North Carolina mountains, foothills, and
central and northern Piedmont.  However, excessively dry values
still persist across the lower and eastern South Carolina
Piedmont and North Carolina southern Piedmont.

*Note that above-normal temperatures and below-normal
precipitation exacerbate the loss of soil moisture through
evapotranspiration, while below-normal temperatures and
above-normal precipitation mitigates soil-moisture deficits.
Evapotranspiration is the loss of moisture from the soil to the
atmosphere plus the loss of moisture from the soil to


..Carolina State Summaries...

As of August 22, of the 36 total ranked streamflow observing
stations across South Carolina, 3 percent of those stations
were experiencing 28-day average streamflows lower than the 10th
percentile, 33 percent of stations were in the 10th-24th
percentile, and 58 percent were in the 25th to 75th percentile,
and 6 percent of streamflows were in the 76th to 90th percentile.
In general, the lowest streamflow percentiles were observed in
the Midlands with streamflow percentiles generally increasing
in the Upstate and Lowcountry.

As of August 21, of the 117 total ranked streamflow observing
stations across North Carolina, 3 percent of those stations were
experiencing 28-day average streamflows lower than the 10th
percentile, 11 percent were in the 10th to 24th percentile, 68
percent were in the 25th to 75th percentile, 15 percent were in
the 76th to 90th percentile, 2 percent were
above the 90th percentile, and 1 percent of streamflows were at
the highest values ever recorded.  In general, the highest
streamflow percentiles extend from central North Carolina west
into the northwest Piedmont and south into the western
Foothills, the Blue Ridge Escarpment and into the French Broad
River valley.

..28-Day Average Streamflow Percentiles by River System...

River Basin          % of     %ile    Classification
                     (8/21)  (8/21)   (8/21)

Broad (GA)           36- 48 | 22-29 | Below Normal
Broad (NC/SC)        49-107 | 29-67 | Slightly Below Normal
Catawba              20-136 | 18-78 | Normal (N), Blw Nrml (S)
Enoree/Tyger         29- 65 | 49-93 | Slightly Below Normal
French Broad         95-170 | 59-87 | Above Normal
Nantahala/Tuckasegee 62- 66 | 15-25 | Below Normal
Little Tennessee/
Piegon               70-110 |  6-68 | Below Normal
Rocky/Yadkin         50-156 | 36-86 | Slightly Above Normal
Saluda               36- 93 | 10-55 | Below Normal
Tallulah/Chattooga   72-114 | 42-67 | Normal
Toxaway/Keowee/      28- 60 | 23-40 | Below Normal

*Please note that streamflows along regulated rivers (i.e.,
rivers with reservoirs) may be influenced positively and/or
negatively by the control of releases from those reservoirs.


..Pool Elevations (in feet)...

                         Full    Elev    Elev             Min
Reservoir                Pool    7/13    8/21     Change  Elev*
                         (ft)    (ft)    (ft)     (ft)    (ft)


James           (BRWN7) 100.0 |  97.07 |  98.20 | +1.13 |  95.0
Rhodhiss        (RHON7) 100.0 |  97.40 |  96.81 | -0.59 |  94.0
Hickory         (OXFN7) 100.0 |  97.36 |  97.67 | +0.31 |  94.0
Lookout Shoals  (LKSN7) 100.0 |  97.55 |  96.97 | -0.58 |  94.0
Norman          (CWAN7) 100.0 |  97.80 |  97.50 | -0.30 |  95.0
Mountain Island (MOUN7) 100.0 |  97.00 |  97.17 | +0.17 |  94.3
Wylie           (FOMS1) 100.0 |  97.07 |  96.95 | -0.12 |  94.0
Fishing Creek   (FCDS1) 100.0 |  98.47 |  97.66 | -0.81 |  95.0
Great Falls     (GTFS1) 100.0 |  96.83 |  97.60 | +0.77 |  95.0
Cedar Creek     (CDCS1) 100.0 |  98.07 |  97.31 | -0.76 |  96.0


Tanasee Creek (EFKN7)   100.0 |  92.30 |  91.78 | -0.52 |  90.0
Bear Creek    (BCDN7)   100.0 |  92.35 |  93.79 | +1.44 |  92.0
Cedar Cliff   (ICCN7)   100.0 |  97.20 |  99.20 | +2.00 |  96.0
Glenville     (THPN7)   100.0 |  96.02 |  94.60 | -1.42 |  94.2
Wolf Creek    (WCDN7)   100.0 |  90.23 |  91.94 | +1.71 |    NA
Nantahala     (NANN7)   100.0 |  92.55 |  88.78 | -3.77 |  92.2


Jocassee      (JCSS1)   100.0 |  98.84 |  96.92 | -1.92 |  82.0
Keowee        (KEOS1)   100.0 |  97.85 |  97.74 | -0.11 |  95.0
Hartwell      (HRTG1)   660.0 | 657.05 | 655.90 | -1.15 | 625.0
Russell       (RBDS1)   475.0 | 474.36 | 474.18 | -0.18 | 470.0

* The minimal elevation is the lowest elevation that the pool can
be while meeting local community and river system needs.  Drought
release reduction plans may begin above the minimal elevation.  For
Lake Hartwell and Richard B. Russell Lake, the minimal elevation
marks the beginning of conservation storage.  Drought release
reduction plans begin at or above the minimal elevation, at 656.0
feet at Lake Hartwell and at 470.0 feet for Richard B. Russell


The overall weather pattern is forecasted to be unfavorable for
drought improvement across the region as temperatures are
expected to remain above-normal and precipitation slightly
below-normal.  This will result in seasonable to above-normal
evapotranspiration rates or the rate of moisture loss from the
soil to vegetation and the atmosphere, which may contribute to
new declines in reservoir, streamflow, soil moisture and
groundwater levels. The outlook suggests that drought conditions
will persist or slightly deteriorate where drought is ongoing and
develop in parts of the North Carolina southern Piedmont where
rainfall has not been as abundant compared to surrounding areas.
Given the well-above normal rainfall across the southern North
Carolina mountains and foothills, this region can withstand a
period of below-normal rainfall, though this region is currently
the most likely to continue to receive normal rainfall amounts
into September.

Region         Current Drought          Drought Forecast
                                        (late August-September)

NC Piedmont    NO-D0 (Abnormally Dry) | One Category Deterioration
NC Foothills   None                   | No Development
NC Nrn Mnts    NO-D0 (Abnormally Dry) | Little Change
NC Cntl Mnts   D0-D1 (Moderate)       | Slight Deterioration
NC Srn Mnts    D0-D1 (Moderate)       | One Category Improvement

SC Mnts/       D0-D1 (Moderate)       | Slight Deterioration
SC Piedmont    D0-D3 (Extreme)        | D0-D2 Expansion

GA NE Mnts/    D1    (Moderate)       | Little Change
GA Piedmont    D2-D3 (Extreme)        | Slight Deterioration


The next Primary Drought Information Statement will be issued in
early October if D1 conditions still exist anywhere within the


The U.S. Drought Monitor /USDM/ is a multi-agency effort involving
NOAA/s National Weather Service /NWS/ and the National Centers for
Environmental Information...the U.S. Department of Agriculture
/USDA/...the U.S. Geological Survey /USGS/...state departments of
agriculture...the U.S. Forest Service /USFS/...state forest
services...the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers /USACE/...private
reservoir operators...state and regional climatologists...and the
National Drought Mitigation Center /NDMC/.

County-specific drought categories are derived from the NDMC`s

Agricultural information is derived from the USDA...the Climate
Prediction Center /CPC/...the North Carolina Department of
Agriculture and Consumer Services...and the National Integrated
Drought Information System.

Fire Danger classifications are courtesy of the USFS...the Georgia
Forestry Commission...and the North Carolina Forest Service.

The precipitation analysis is derived from quality-controlled
gridded precipitation estimates produced at the Lower Mississippi
River Forecast Center and the Southeast River Forecast Center.

The precipitation and temperature outlook is derived from guidance
produced at the CPC.

Groundwater levels and records are courtesy of the USGS.

Reservoir information is courtesy of Duke Energy...Georgia Power
...and the USACE.

Additional impact information is gathered from various media
reports as available.



USDM Classification Definitions...

North Carolina Drought Mitigation Advisory Council...

South Carolina Drought Response Committee...

River Conditions and Forecasts via the NWS...

Streamflow Conditions via the USGS...

Mid-Term and Long-Term Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks
via the CPC...


This product has undergone several revisions and enhancements
during the last drought period.  Additional enhancements
are planned for future drought statements. Your feedback and
recommendations are encouraged in order to ensure this product
meets user needs.  Please direct feedback...recommendations...
questions...and comments to:

National Weather Service
Weather Forecast Office - Greenville-Spartanburg
1549 GSP Drive
Greer SC 29651
Phone 864-848-9970



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