National Weather Service Text Product Display

Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Versions: 1 2 3
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AXUS74 KTSA 102014
DGTTSA
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-OKC001-021-023-035-037-041-061-077-
079-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-127-131-135-143-145-
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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
314 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

...EXTREME TO MODERATE DROUGHT PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

SYNOPSIS...

RAINFALL OVER THE LAST THREE WEEKS HAS HELPED TO ALLEVIATE
DROUGHT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44
CONTINUE TO MISS OUT ON THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA HAS HAD LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS RECENTLY AS WELL.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR /USDM/ VALID 7 MAY 2013...EXTREME
/D3/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTY
IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS COVER PORTIONS OF
PAWNEE...OSAGE...WASHINGTON...AND NOWATA COUNTIES IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT OVER PARTS OF
ROGERS...TULSA...CREEK...SOUTHWEST NOWATA...WESTERN CRAIG AND
CHOCTAW COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS EXIST OVER AREAS OF
CRAIG...SOUTHWEST ROGERS...SOUTHERN TULSA...OKMULGEE...OKFUSKEE
AND FAR SOUTHERN PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
CRAWFORD...FAR SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...AND MADISON COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE USDM IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND
ACADEMIC PARTNERS. IT IS A WEEKLY NATIONAL PRODUCT ISSUED ON
THURSDAY MORNING USING DATA COLLECTED THROUGH THE PREVIOUS TUESDAY
MORNING...SO IT DOES NOT CONSIDER PRECIPITATION WHICH HAS FALLEN
AFTER THE DATA CUT-OFF TIME.

THERE ARE FIVE LEVELS OF INTENSITY DEPICTED ON THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR.  THE USDM LEVELS ARE THE FOLLOWING...
D0 - ABNORMALLY DRY /NOT IN DROUGHT BUT SHOWING DRYNESS/
D1 - MODERATE DROUGHT
D2 - SEVERE DROUGHT
D3 - EXTREME DROUGHT
D4 - EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT

THE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS ISSUED BY THE NWS OFFICE
IN TULSA WHEN NEEDED TO SUPPLEMENT THE NATIONAL USDM PRODUCT. LOCAL
STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY DURING TIMES WHEN THE USDM
INDICATES SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OR AS LOCAL CONDITIONS WARRANT.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.
THE OKLAHOMA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE /OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY/
IS HOSTING RECORDED UPDATES FOCUSED ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS...IMPACTS...AND OUTLOOKS FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE LONE CHIMNEY WATER ASSOCIATION...WHICH PROVIDES WATER TO THE
CITY OF PAWNEE...SEVERAL PAWNEE COUNTY RURAL WATER DISTRICTS...AND
IS A SECONDARY SOURCE FOR CLEVELAND...IS STILL VERY CONCERNED
ABOUT RUNNING OUT OF WATER...AND CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE STILL
NEEDED DESPITE RECENT RAIN. THE LAKE LEVEL HAS FALLEN SLIGHTLY
SINCE APRIL 19 AND IS CURRENTLY AT 11.9 FEET BELOW NORMAL. AT
THIS LEVEL...THE LAKE IS STILL BELOW ONE INTAKE VALVE AND IS ONLY
ABOUT 4 FEET ABOVE A SECOND INTAKE. LONE CHIMNEY LAKE REMAINS AT
HISTORIC LOWS.

SOIL MOISTURE IMPACT.
THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY /OCS/ DAILY AVERAGED FRACTIONAL
WATER INDEX FOR 9 MAY 2013 SHOWS VALUES OF 0.8 TO 1 ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA /WHERE 1.0 IS SATURATED AND 0.0 IS COMPLETELY
DRY/ FOR 2...10...AND 24 INCHES BELOW THE GROUND. ONLY SLIGHTLY
LOWER VALUES OF 0.6 WERE OBSERVED IN NORTHERN CREEK COUNTY AT 2
INCHES BELOW THE GROUND.

AS OF 9 MAY 2013...THE ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
/ABRFC/ GRIDDED SOIL MOISTURE INDICATES THE UPPER ZONE IS 30 TO
MORE THAN 40 PERCENT FULL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO 100 TO OVER
150 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THIS AREA. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40...THE UPPER ZONE SOIL MOISTURE IS 10 TO 30 PERCENT...WITH A FEW
AREAS OF ONLY 1 TO 10 PERCENT IN CHOCTAW COUNTY. THIS REPRESENTS
70 TO LESS THAN 30 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL VALUE FOR THIS AREA. THE LOWER
ZONE WAS GENERALLY OVER 40 PERCENT FULL ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THOUGH AREAS IN D3/D2/D1 CONDITIONS
WERE 10 TO 40 PERCENT FULL. THESE VALUES ARE 30 TO 100 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR A LARGE PART OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY ANALYSIS AS
OF 9 MAY 2013 SHOWED SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS THAT RANGED FROM 0.8
INCHES /20 MM/ TO 2.4 INCHES /60 MM/ ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

FIRE IMPACTS.
NO BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT REPORTS OF WILD FIRES. FIRE WEATHER
DANGER REMAINS LOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...

LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 HAVE RECEIVED 0.50 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK. HIGHER TOTALS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
ROGERS...DELAWARE...AND ADAIR COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40...ONLY A TRACE TO 0.50 INCHES HAS FALLEN DURING
THE LAST 7 DAYS.

IN THE LAST 30 DAYS ENDING 7 AM MAY 10...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
RANGED FROM AROUND 2 INCHES TO OVER 10 INCHES THROUGHOUT EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE HIGHEST TOTALS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES HAVE FALLEN FROM SHAWNEE TO WAGONER TO BENTONVILLE. THE 30
DAY PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL WAS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. HOWEVER...OUTSIDE OF THIS
AREA...ONLY 25 TO 90 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS.

IN THE LONGER TERM...SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE WATER YEAR /1
OCTOBER 2012 THROUGH 10 MAY 2013/...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE RANGED
FROM 10 INCHES TO AROUND 30 INCHES. THIS REPRESENTS 25 TO 90
PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD FOR A MAJORITY OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ONLY BENTON COUNTY AND FAR
SOUTHWEST DELAWARE COUNTY WERE ABOVE NORMAL.

ACCORDING TO OCS...FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS ENDING 9 MAY 2013...NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 29TH WETTEST PERIOD SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1921. EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 45TH WETTEST AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 14TH DRIEST PERIOD. FOR THE WATER
YEAR TO DATE /OCTOBER 1-MAY 9/...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE
33RD DRIEST ON RECORD...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 24TH
DRIEST...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 14TH DRIEST. FOR THE
PAST YEAR /10 MAY 2012-9 MAY 2013/...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE
7TH DRIEST ON RECORD...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 6TH
DRIEST...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 3RD DRIEST.


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TOMORROW...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THEN RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL FOR ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

BEYOND THIS PERIOD...THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR MAY 2013 /ISSUED 30
APRIL 2013/ INDICATES AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES /FOR THE MONTH AS A WHOLE/ AND AN EQUAL CHANCE FOR
ABOVE...NEAR...AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE CPC U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID MAY 2 THROUGH JULY
31 INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS /COE/...MOST OF THE
MAJOR RESERVOIRS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WERE
REPORTING NORMAL POOL LEVELS OR LEVELS WITHIN FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE.
ONLY TWO RESERVOIRS REMAINED WITH CONSERVATION POOLS BELOW
NORMAL AS OF 10 MAY 2013...BIRCH LAKE 52 PERCENT AND SKIATOOK
LAKE 63 PERCENT.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/...7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS FOR MOST OF THE REPORTING STATIONS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WERE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AS OF 9 MAY 2013. HOWEVER...SEVERAL STATIONS
WERE REPORTING BELOW NORMAL 7-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS /10TH-24TH
PERCENTILE/...INCLUDING THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT TULSA AND NEAR
HASKELL...LEE CREEK NEAR SHORT...AND JAMES FORK NEAR HACKETT. BOTH
THE BLACK BEAR CREEK AT PAWNEE AND THE RED RIVER AT ARTHUR CITY
WERE REPORTING THEIR LOWEST VALUE EVER MEASURED FOR THE DAY OF THE
YEAR.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON 31 MAY 2013 OR SOONER IF SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.


RELATED WEBSITES...

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TSA/?N=DROUGHT_INFO
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA

ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC/?N=DROUGHT

OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY DROUGHT TOOLS
HTTP://CLIMATE.OK.GOV/INDEX.PHP/CLIMATE/CATEGORY/
DROUGHT_WILDFIRE

ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.STATE.AR.US

OKLAHOMA FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.OK.GOV

U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS TULSA DISTRICT
HTTP://WWW.SWT-WC.USACE.ARMY.MIL

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY REALTIME DATA
HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS INCLUDING THE NWS...THE
NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL
CLIMATOLOGISTS...AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA
OBSERVATION SITES...THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
USACE AND THE USGS.


QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
10159 E. 11TH ST. SUITE 300
TULSA OKLAHOMA 74128
PHONE   918-838-7838
EMAIL   SR-TSA.WEBMASTER AT NOAA.GOV

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National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
