Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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AXUS74 KTSA 062135
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ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-OKC001-021-023-035-037-041-061-077-
079-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-127-131-135-143-145-
147-070945-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
335 PM CST TUE DEC 6 2016

...MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

SYNOPSIS...

DROUGHT CONDITIONS INTENSIFIED OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHILE
MODERATE DROUGHT EXPANDED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR /USDM/ VALID 29 NOVEMBER
2016...EXTREME /D3/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
PUSHMATAHA AND WESTERN CHOCTAW COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS ENCOMPASS PORTIONS OF
PITTSBURG...HASKELL...SEQUOYAH...LATIMER...LE FLORE...CHOCTAW AND
SOUTHWEST PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
SEBASTIAN...CRAWFORD...AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.

MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS COVER PORTIONS OF
PAWNEE...TULSA...CREEK...OKMULGEE...OKFUSKEE...MCINTOSH...
WAGONER...MUSKOGEE...CHEROKEE AND ADAIR COUNTIES IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WASHINGTON...CRAWFORD...MADISON AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ BUT NOT EXPERIENCING DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST
OVER PARTS OF PAWNEE...OSAGE...TULSA...WASHINGTON...NOWATA...ROGERS...
MAYES...DELAWARE AND ADAIR COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
BENTON...WASHINGTON...MADISON AND CARROLL COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

THE USDM IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND
ACADEMIC PARTNERS. IT IS A WEEKLY NATIONAL PRODUCT ISSUED ON
THURSDAY MORNING USING DATA COLLECTED THROUGH THE PREVIOUS
TUESDAY MORNING...SO IT DOES NOT CONSIDER PRECIPITATION WHICH HAS
FALLEN AFTER THE DATA CUT-OFF TIME.

THERE ARE FIVE LEVELS OF INTENSITY DEPICTED ON THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR. THE USDM LEVELS ARE THE FOLLOWING...
D0 - ABNORMALLY DRY /NOT IN DROUGHT BUT SHOWING DRYNESS/
D1 - MODERATE DROUGHT
D2 - SEVERE DROUGHT
D3 - EXTREME DROUGHT
D4 - EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT

THE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS ISSUED BY THE NWS
OFFICE IN TULSA WHEN NEEDED TO SUPPLEMENT THE NATIONAL USDM
PRODUCT. LOCAL STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY DURING TIMES
WHEN THE USDM INDICATES SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OR AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS WARRANT.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.
THE OKLAHOMA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE /OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL
SURVEY...OCS/ HOSTS RECORDED BRIEFINGS FOCUSED ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS...IMPACTS..AND OUTLOOKS FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPDATED DROUGHT BRIEFINGS ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/USER/SCIPP01

SOIL MOISTURE IMPACT.
THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY /OCS/ DAILY AVERAGED
FRACTIONAL WATER INDEX FOR 5 DECEMBER 2016 SHOWS VALUES OF 0.2 TO
0.5 /WHERE 1.0 IS SATURATED AND 0.0 IS COMPLETELY DRY/ AT 2 AND 4
INCHES BELOW GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
PAWNEE...OSAGE...CREEK...TULSA...WASHINGTON...NOWATA...ROGERS...OKMULGEE
AND WAGONER COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WAS GENERALLY 0.6 TO 1. THE SOIL WAS DRY WITH VALUES OF 0.2
TO 0.5 FURTHER SOUTH FROM OKMULGEE THROUGH LE FLORE COUNTIES AT
10 INCHES BELOW THE GROUND. AT 24 INCHES BELOW THE GROUND...VALUES
WERE 0.0 TO 0.5 ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY FROM BARTLESVILLE TO MCALESTER TO WESTERN
CHOCTAW COUNTY.

AS OF 6 DECEMBER 2016...THE ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST
CENTER /ABRFC/ GRIDDED SOIL MOISTURE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER
ZONE...WHICH RESPONDS TO SHORT TERM RAINFALL...IS 30 TO GREATER
THAN 40 PERCENT FULL FOR MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND ONLY A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS WERE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FULL WHICH REPRESENTS SLIGHT AGRICULTURALLY DRY. THIS CORRESPONDS
TO 50 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE D0-D2 AREA IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...AND 90 TO 100 PERCENT FULL SOUTH OF I-40. THE
LOWER ZONE WAS 5 TO 30 PERCENT FULL FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...REPRESENTING SEVERE TO SLIGHT
HYDROLOGICALLY DRY CONDITIONS. SOUTHERN LE FLORE COUNTY WAS
GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT FULL. THESE LOWER ZONE ANOMALIES WERE 70
TO LESS THAN 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ CALCULATED SOIL MOISTURE
ANOMALY ANALYSIS AS OF 5 DECEMBER 2016 SHOWED SOIL MOISTURE WAS
20-140 MM /0.79-4.7 IN/ BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

FIRE IMPACTS.
NO BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

AGRICULTURE.
ACCORDING TO THE USDA...APPROXIMATELY 60 PERCENT OF THE OKLAHOMA
HAY ACREAGE AND 80 OF THE ARKANSAS HAY ACREAGE WAS LOCATED WITHIN
A DROUGHT AREA AS OF 29 NOVEMBER 2016.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...

OVER THE PAST 7 DAYS ENDING AT 7AM CDT 0.10 TO AROUND 1 INCH OF
RAIN FELL ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH
THE HIGHEST TOTALS OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM AROUND HALF
AN INCH TO AROUND 4 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA ONCE AGAIN RECEIVING THE MOST RAIN.

ACCORDING TO OCS...FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS ENDING 5 DECEMBER
2016...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 26TH DRIEST PERIOD SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1921. EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 22ND DRIEST
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 41ST WETTEST. SINCE SEPTEMBER
7 /LAST 90 DAYS/...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 34TH
DRIEST...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 11TH DRIEST AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA RANKS AS THE 12TH DRIEST.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATUES EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW FLURRIES TOMORROW...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON
SUNDAY.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR AN
ENHANCED CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

BEYOND THIS PERIOD...THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 2016 /ISSUED 17
NOVEMBER 2016/ INDICATES AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS OUTLOOK ALSO CALL FOR AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION EXCEPT OVER FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHERE
THERE IS AN EQUAL CHANCE FOR ABOVE...NEAR...AND BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS /COE/...SEVERAL OF
THE MAJOR RESERVOIRS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WERE OPERATING PLUS OR MINUS 5 PERCENT OF THE TOP OF THE
CONSERVATION POOL. HOWEVER...THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIRS WERE
OPERATING MORE THAN 5 PERCENT BELOW THE CONSERVATION POOL LEVEL AS
OF 6 DECEMBER 2016: HEYBURN LAKE 43 PERCENT...EUFAULA LAKE 75
PERCENT...HUGO LAKE 76 PERCENT...BEAVER LAKE 79 PERCENT...BIRCH
LAKE 82 PERCENT...SKIATOOK LAKE 86 PERCENT...TENKILLER LAKE 86 PERCENT
COPAN LAKE 91 PERCENT...WISTER LAKE 92 PERCENT AND FORT GIBSON
LAKE 94 PERCENT.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/...THE 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOW WAS MUCH BELOW NORMAL AS OF 5 DECEMBER 2016 ALONG THE
KIAMICHI RIVER NEAR CLAYTON AND NEAR ANTLERS...THE JAMES FORK NEAR
HACKETT...AND LEE CREEK NEAR SHORT. BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW WAS
OBSERVED AT BLACK BEER CREEK AT PAWNEE...BIRD CREEK AT
AVANT...DEEP FORK NEAR BEGGS...SPRING RIVER NEAR QUAPAW...NEOSHO
RIVER NEAR LANGLEY...SPAVINAW CREEK NEAR SYCAMORE...FLINT CREEK AT
SPRINGTOWN...NEAR WEST SILOAM SPRINGS AND NEAR KANSAS...ILLINOIS
RIVER NEAR WATTS...BARON FORK AT DUTCH MILLS...AND THE WHITE
RIVER NEAR FAYETTEVILLE.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON 6 JANUARY 2017 OR SOONER IF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR.


RELATED WEBSITES...

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TSA/DROUGHT_INFO
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA

ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ABRFC/DROUGHT

OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY DROUGHT TOOLS
HTTP://CLIMATE.OK.GOV/INDEX.PHP/CLIMATE/CATEGORY/
DROUGHT_WILDFIRE

ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.STATE.AR.US

OKLAHOMA FORESTRY COMMISSION
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.OK.GOV

U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS TULSA DISTRICT
HTTP://WWW.SWT-WC.USACE.ARMY.MIL

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY REALTIME DATA
HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS INCLUDING THE NWS...THE
NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL
CLIMATOLOGISTS...AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA
OBSERVATION SITES...THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
USACE AND THE USGS.


QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA
10159 E. 11TH ST. SUITE 300
TULSA OKLAHOMA 74128
PHONE   918-838-7838
EMAIL   SR-TSA.WEBMASTER AT NOAA.GOV

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