Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FGUS73 KGRB 192211
ESFGRB
WIC009-015-029-037-041-061-067-069-071-073-075-078-083-085-087-097-
115-125-135-137-139-141-201200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

THIS FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NWS GREEN BAY SERVICE AREA. IT COVERS
THE TIME PERIOD FOR LATE FEBRUARY THROUGH MAY 2015. THIS INCLUDES
THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...YELLOW...WISCONSIN...MENOMINEE...
WOLF...LITTLE WOLF...WAUPACA AND OCONTO.

...FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

DUE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL TRENDS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF FEBRUARY AND EVEN INTO
MUCH OF MARCH...ICE BREAK UP FOR AREA RIVERS WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
DEEPER INTO MARCH...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO EARLY APRIL FOR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN RIVERS AND STREAMS. ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS LATE FALL INTO EARLY
WINTER DID PRODUCE MINOR ICE JAMS ON SEVERAL NORTHEAST WISCONSIN RIVERS.
THE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION LATER WINTER HAD DIMINISHED THIS ICE
JAM THREAT...BUT THE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AGAIN THIS SPRING DURING
BREAK UP.  THE COLD AND DRY TRENDS SUPPORT ONLY MINOR FLOODING DUE
TO SNOWMELT ON A FEW AREA RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

----------------------------------------------------------------

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1 PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR
FLOODING...                   VALID PERIOD: 2/23/2015 - 5/24/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:MENOMINEE RIVER
FLOW3             9.0   11.0   13.0    50   32    9   10   <5   <5
NIAW3            13.0   15.0   16.0    50   32   13   10    7   <5
VLCM4            15.0   17.0   19.0    29   27   12    9   <5   <5
MCAW3            15.0   18.0   19.0    72   55   15   12   10   <5
:OCONTO RIVER
OCTW3             9.0   12.0   14.0    10   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WOLF RIVER
LGLW3            11.5   12.5   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SHIW3            11.0   13.5   15.0    73   56   <5    9   <5   <5
NEWW3             9.0   10.5   11.1    38   44   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE WOLF RIVER
ROYW3             5.0    8.0   10.0    21   36   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WAUPACA RIVER
WPCW3             6.0    7.5    9.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:FOX RIVER
APLW3             8.4    9.0   10.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WISCONSIN RIVER
RRLW3            11.0   13.5   15.0    21   16   <5    6   <5   <5
ROTW3            25.0   27.0   28.0    13   15   <5    6   <5   <5
WIRW3            12.0   13.5   14.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:YELLOW RIVER
BBCW3            12.0   15.9   16.6    58   69    9   10   <5    6

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
:
:       CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:               VALID  PERIOD: 2/23/2015 - 5/24/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:MENOMINEE RIVER
FLOW3       7.0     7.1     8.0     9.2     9.9    11.2    12.3
NIAW3      10.1    10.6    11.9    13.0    14.0    15.7    16.8
VLCM4      10.8    11.6    12.6    14.2    15.4    17.4    18.5
MCAW3      13.6    14.1    15.0    16.2    17.4    19.3    20.0
:OCONTO RIVER
OCTW3       6.5     6.7     7.1     7.5     8.2     9.1     9.6
:WOLF RIVER
LGLW3       9.4     9.5     9.8    10.1    10.4    10.7    10.8
SHIW3       9.9    10.5    11.0    11.5    12.3    13.4    13.7
NEWW3       7.9     8.1     8.5     8.8     9.4    10.0    10.2
:LITTLE WOLF RIVER
ROYW3       3.2     3.3     3.7     4.2     4.9     6.1     6.4
:WAUPACA RIVER
WPCW3       2.4     2.5     2.7     3.0     3.5     3.9     4.2
:FOX RIVER
APLW3       6.3     6.4     6.5     7.0     7.4     7.9     7.9
:WISCONSIN RIVER
RRLW3       8.5     8.7     9.3    10.0    10.9    12.2    12.7
ROTW3      19.5    20.0    21.0    22.3    24.2    25.6    27.7
WIRW3       5.8     6.5     6.9     7.9     9.6    10.8    12.3
:YELLOW RIVER
BBCW3       7.1     8.0     9.9    12.4    14.8    16.0    16.4

IN TABLE 4 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

:       CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:               VALID  PERIOD: 2/23/2015 - 5/24/2015 :
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:MENOMINEE RIVER
FLOW3      5.01    5.29    6.64    8.81   10.24   13.06   15.64
NIAW3      6.50    7.38    9.47   11.66   13.72   17.79   20.62
VLCM4      7.88    9.04   10.89   14.00   16.70   21.46   24.08
MCAW3     10.10   11.41   13.53   16.99   20.64   26.73   29.27
.END

THESE NUMBERS ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SPRING SEASON
SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA. THESE
NUMBERS ALSO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SNOW COVER AND SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS 30 TO 90 DAY
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE
COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF RISK
ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.

...CONDITIONS AS OF FEBRUARY 19TH 2015...

AS OF FEBRUARY 19TH...SNOW DEPTH RANGED FROM 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER
LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 8 WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER VILAS
COUNTY. BETWEEN 3 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW COVER IS OVER THE REST OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

WATER EQUIVALENT OF THE SNOW ON THE GROUND RANGES FROM 1.0 TO 2.0
INCHES OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...LESS THAN 1.0 INCHES
ELSEWHERE.

FROST DEPTHS VARY DUE TO SNOW COVER AND SOIL TYPE...BUT MAINLY RANGE
FROM 20 TO 35 INCHES.  DUE TO A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC INTRUSIONS
OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FEBRUARY...FROST DEPTHS
WILL LIKELY GO DEEPER IN THE COMING WEEKS IF SNOWFALL REMAINS
LIGHT.

...FORECAST CONDITIONS...

FOR THE REST OF FEBRUARY...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. FOR MARCH...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED WHILE PRECIPITATION MAY BE NEAR NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR APRIL AND MAY.

ACCESS TO LONG TERM FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT:

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

...NEXT FLOOD REPORT ISSUANCE...

THE NEXT OFFICIAL FLOOD REPORT WILL BE MARCH 5TH 2015.

ADDITIONAL AHPS INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT:
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB/AHPS
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/NCRFC

$$
TH/AW























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