Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 052015
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2016

VALID 071200Z - 131200Z

IN THE MID LEVELS...A BROAD CYCLONE WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE FROM PARTS
OF THE SWRN CONUS TO THE CNTRL CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE REINFORCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WRN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...PERSISTENTLY ENHANCED
LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE/REINFORCING
TROUGH WILL OVERLIE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM AND W
TX...ENHANCING THE FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM D3/SAT THROUGH
D6/TUE. PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR EACH OF THESE
DAYS...AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST CONSENSUS AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE.

CRITICAL AREAS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NM ON D3/SAT...AND
ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM AND SWRN TX ON D4/SUN AND D5/MON. THESE
CRITICAL AREAS INDICATE THE LOCATIONS/DAYS OF GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS COMBINING WITH LOW RH AMIDST DRY FUELS.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE AREAS MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS
AS ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE. RELATIVELY LESS-FAVORABLE
FUELS FOR FIRE SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF W TX AND NRN NM PRECLUDE
HIGHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES IN THESE AREAS...DESPITE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS.

THEREAFTER...DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN CONUS AND
VICINITY WHERE DRY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST...COMBINED WITH THE BULK
OF MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATING SUCH FLOW REMAINING MODEST...PRECLUDES
PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS FOR D7/WED AND D8/THU.

..COHEN.. 05/05/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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