Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 232027

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Valid 251200Z - 031200Z

Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement during the day 3-8
period. Fire weather concerns will generally remain confined to the
southern Plains during this time, mainly in the day 4/Sun-day 6/Tue
time frame.

One difference noted is a shortwave trough ejecting across the
southern Rockies on day 4/Sun depicted by the GFS. The ECMWF
maintains more zonal westerly flow across the southern Rockies
during this time. However, both have strong deep layer westerlies
with a well-defined lee trough developing. This should lead to at
least elevated fire potential across the southern High Plains on day
4/Sun with gusty surface southwesterly winds and low RH continuing
in conjunction with dry fuels. On day 5/Mon, a larger-scale upper
trough will deepen over the western U.S. and strong southwesterly
deep layer flow will continue across the southern Rockies. Another
lee low/surface trough will develop along the central and southern
high Plains with gusty downslope winds contributing to another day
of elevated fire weather potential.

By day 6/Tue, the western trough will eject eastward into the Plains
during the nighttime hours. Ahead of the trough, deep layer
southwesterly flow will increase and another, stronger lee cyclone
is expected to develop and shift east across parts of the
central/southern Plains and eventually toward the MS River. There is
some discrepancy between medium range guidance in the exact strength
and track of the surface low and this could impact how widespread
the development of critical fire weather conditions becomes.
Regardless, this is a favorable pattern for strong southwest surface
winds and very low RH conditions across the southern high Plains and
elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected.

By days 7-8/Wed-Thu, fire weather concerns will diminish as a highly
amplified ridge builds over the eastern Pacific and the upper trough
shifts eastward over the eastern U.S.

..Leitman.. 02/23/2017

...Please see for graphic product...

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