Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 242039

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Valid 261200Z - 021200Z

...Dry-thunderstorm potential...
A midlevel impulse is forecast to track from the east Pacific to the
northern High Plains early this upcoming week, contributing to the
de-amplification of an antecedent midlevel ridge. Related ascent is
forecast to combine with sufficient moisture and buoyancy aloft for
isolated dry-thunderstorm potential over the vicinity of the
northern Great Basin for Day-3/Monday. Deep, well-mixed boundary
layers will encourage ample sub-cloud evaporation and limit
precipitation amounts, fostering a dry-thunderstorm mode amid areas
of dry fuels. For Day-4/Tuesday, some dry-thunderstorm potential may
affect parts of MT and vicinity as the impulse continues progressing
eastward. However, confidence in sufficient coverage of this
activity affecting locations where dry fuels exist (i.e., across
parts of eastern and north-central MT) is presently too limited for
dry-thunderstorm probabilities on Day-4/Tuesday.

...Strong-wind/low-RH potential...
Around early parts of this upcoming week, an enhancement to
low/midlevel flow will occur across portions of the western states,
in association with a tightened height gradient aloft. This will
occur peripheral to the aforementioned impulse and an amplifying,
broad cyclone. Each day from Day-3/Monday through Day-5/Wednesday,
40-percent areas are in effect. However, Critical areas have not
been added at this time, owing to notable differences among model
solutions and relatively modest low-level flow strength depicted by
multiple model solutions.

Also of note, some Elevated fire-weather potential may affect
portions of eastern and north-central MT on Day-3/Monday and
Day-4/Tuesday, as the surface pressure gradient tightens and winds
increase/shift with frontal passage. Confidence in RH values
becoming critically low where dry fuels exist is too limited for
probabilistic delineations at this time.

For Day-6/Thursday through Day-8/Saturday, notable differences among
medium-range model guidance regarding the evolution of the
large-scale pattern yields too little predictability for
probabilistic delineations. Furthermore, the bulk of model solutions
indicate weak low/midlevel flow amid dry surface conditions
relegated to portions of the western states, limiting the
fire-weather risk.

..Cohen.. 06/24/2017

...Please see for graphic product...

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