Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
FNUS28 KWNS 202059

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

A strong mid-level disturbance - initially centered over Kansas on
D3/Mon - will migrate eastward toward the upper Midwest on D4/Tue.
At the surface, a low over Iowa will migrate eastward during that
time period, although enough of a remnant surface gradient will aid
in development of elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions in portions of Oklahoma and Texas D3/Mon afternoon.

The next major synoptic system will take shape across the West
beginning around the D5/Wed timeframe and slowly migrate eastward
into the Intermountain West during D6/Thu.  Surface troughing in the
lee of the Rockies ahead of this feature, downslope flow, and
ongoing severe drought will likely result in heightened fire weather
concerns although finer-scale details should become clearer in the
coming days.

...D3/Mon - Portions of Oklahoma and Texas...
Models depict an area of strong mid-level flow on the western
periphery of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance over Kansas.
Mixing of this stronger flow from aloft, combined with a lingering
surface pressure gradient, will foster areas of 15-25 mph
northwesterly flow - strongest in Oklahoma nearer the mid-level
system.  Although temperatures should only reach the 50s F areawide,
low-level drying associated with insolation should result in areas
of near-critical RH values - especially over Oklahoma.  Portions of
Oklahoma may need upgrading to critical in later outlooks as
additional, higher-resolution model guidance becomes available over
the next day or so.

...D6/Thu into D7/Fri - Portions of the central High Plains...
Lee troughing and strengthening flow attendant to an 850 mb jet
across the region will result in at least elevated fire weather
conditions in a few areas during the period.  The region should
reside on the northern extent of deeper low-level moisture
advection, which should begin in earnest around the Texas Gulf Coast
around D7/Fri.  With a pre-existing dry airmass in place and
dry/dormant fuels, 40% probabilities have been introduced on D6/Thu.
 Uncertainties regarding RH values preclude any introduction of
probabilities after that time however.

..Cook.. 01/20/2018

...Please see for graphic product...

$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.