Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 180555
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...Synopsis...
A quasi-zonal flow pattern will remain over much of the CONUS today,
with a mid-level trough moving eastward over central Canada. Strong
mid-level flow will reside near the base of the trough over the
Northern Plains. Meanwhile, an associated surface low is forecast to
shift eastward from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with a trailing cold
front moving from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region.
Amplification of a large scale mid/upper-level trough over the
Pacific Northwest is expected later tonight.

...North Dakota, Northwest Minnesota, and far eastern Montana...
The ongoing Elevated fire weather area has been maintained, with a
slight westward expansion into eastern Montana. Across the Elevated
area, strong post-frontal northwesterly winds around 15-30 mph (with
higher gusts) are forecast to occur in concert with afternoon
minimum RH values around 20-25% (locally lower). These
meteorological conditions are expected to overlap with an area of
increasingly receptive fuels, as fine fuels have dried out with the
lack of meaningful precipitation the past few weeks (AHPS suggests
less than a quarter of an inch over most of the area the past 14
days).

While near/locally critical conditions may occur, it currently
appears that the strongest winds (generally near the Canadian
border) will not align well with the lowest minimum RH values
(generally across the southern half of ND) on more than a
brief/spotty basis. If trends in guidance suggest more
warming/drying than is currently expected, then a Critical area
could be needed across portions of the area in a future update.

...Southeast Wyoming...
Despite the stronger mid-level flow shifting northward away from the
area today, lingering downslope breeziness is expected to remain
around long enough into the afternoon to overlap with reduced RH
values. An Elevated area was introduced across portions of southeast
WY for locations where sustained westerly winds around 15-20 mph are
forecast to occur -- for at least a few hours during afternoon --
with RH values at or below 15%.

..Elliott.. 10/18/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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