Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 231544

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Valid 231700Z - 241200Z

Northerly/northwesterly flow will exceed 20 mph in a few areas this
afternoon (particularly in northwestern and north-central New
Mexico) as temperatures rise into the 70s and 80s F.  RH values will
also fall to near 15% in many areas.  The primary mitigating factor
for a larger fire weather threat (as alluded to in the previous
discussion below) will be relatively moist fuel states in the
region.  However, the atmospheric conditions in the region justify
an elevated area for portions of eastern Arizona and western/central
New Mexico - especially for areas where fuels are dry.

See the previous discussion below for more information.

..Cook.. 05/23/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

Cold front currently moving southward across the Plains will
continue southward throughout the day. By 00Z Wednesday, the cold
front will likely extend from a surface low over the middle OH
Valley southwestward to deep south TX. At the same time, upper low
currently over MN will drop southward into the middle MS Valley as
the flow aloft through its base strengthens.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across portions of
the Southeast and mid-Atlantic and ahead of the cold front across
the southern Plains. High surface pressure is anticipated across the
Plains in the wake of the cold front, acting to enhance the surface
pressure gradient across portions of the Southwest. Resulting breezy
conditions will overlap antecedent dry conditions across northwest
NM to support some locally elevated fire weather conditions. Small
areal extent and short-duration of the threat as well as only
moderately dry fuels preclude introducing an outlook area with this
forecast. Fire weather conditions are not anticipated elsewhere
across the CONUS.

...Please see for graphic product...

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