Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
FNUS22 KWNS 281855
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
Minor changes have been made to this outlook. The elevated area
over southern Arizona/New Mexico has been removed from these areas
as models have trended cooler with regard to surface temperatures
behind a front traversing the region in the afternoon. Wind fields
will remain relatively strong, but 25%+ RH values should mitigate
any large-scale fire weather threat in these regions. The critical
area remains in tact. Additionally, an elevated area has been added
in portions of the Lower Colorado River Valley, where single digit
RH values will combine with 10-15 mph northerly flow and dry fuels
to support an elevated fire weather risk. The remainder of the
previous forecast is on track. See the previous discussion below
for more information.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0250 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/
A deep midlevel cyclone and attendant surface cyclone are forecast
to move across portions of the South-Central States. A deep/dry
boundary layer west of a merged Pacific front/dryline, extending to
the south of the surface cyclone, will linger across southwest TX.
More substantial cold advection will occur behind a stronger cold
front advancing southward across the southern High Plains.
...Portions of the Southwest States to southwest TX...
Across the Critical area encompassing portions of southwest TX,
downslope trajectories emanating from the higher terrain of
northwest Mexico will support warming/drying of the boundary layer.
Minimum RH around 8-15 percent is expected. As vertical mixing
diurnally strengthens amid enhanced flow aloft surrounding the deep
midlevel cyclone, westerly to west-northwesterly surface winds of
20-25 mph are forecast to combine with the aforementioned low RH
amid dry fuels. Winds will turn more northwesterly/northerly through
the afternoon/evening behind the southward-moving front.
Surrounding the Critical area, elevated fire-weather conditions are
anticipated from portions of southeast AZ to southwest TX. Despite
areas of strong winds across portions of southwest TX to the north
and east of the Critical area, RH is not expected to become
sufficiently low for Critical designation.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...