Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 020729
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE MID LEVELS...A HIGH-AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER
THE CONUS...WITH A RIDGE OVERLYING THE WRN STATES AND A LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH FROM PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO THE OH/MS VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES VICINITY. SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE
RIDGE WILL FOSTER THE MAINTENANCE OF A SFC RIDGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN FLANKED BY A MODEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
PORTIONS OF SRN CA. THIS SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DRY TROPOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN STATES.

...COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
THE MODEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
PREDOMINANTLY NELY TO ELY SFC WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS -- STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH FAVORED PASSES/CANYONS. AND...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 102F IN MANY AREAS AMIDST
A DRY AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES OF 0.15-0.20 INCH...RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 15 PERCENT IN MANY LOCATIONS
WITH VERY POOR RH RECOVERY EXPECTED FRI NIGHT. AND...WITH DRY/VERY
DRY FUELS IN PLACE...ELEVATED TO BORDERLINE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ENSUE. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER ON D2/FRI COMPARED TO
D1/THU...CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS OCCURRING ON ANY MORE
THAN A BRIEF/MARGINAL/SPOTTY BASIS ON D2/FRI IS TOO LIMITED FOR
CRITICAL DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME.

..COHEN.. 10/02/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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