Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
FNUS22 KWNS 191605
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1005 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
The elevated area was expanded southward to include more of western
Kansas, far eastern Colorado, and portions of the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles for this forecast. In these areas, RH will fall below
critical thresholds during the afternoon as surface temperatures
rise into the low 60s F. Winds will gradually weaken throughout the
day, although 10-20 mph surface flow should remain throughout
daylight hours within the elevated area (strongest in portions of
western Nebraska). Fuels will generally be dry in the region, and
any precipitation that may occur during the D1/Sun period should be
isolated at best.
Farther south across the Texas Panhandle, elevated fire weather
conditions may also develop, but fuels are a bit more in question
given recent rainfall and extensive cloudiness, which has hindered
dryness of fuels in some areas.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/
Broad mid-level ridging should take hold across much of the eastern
United States in the wake of a shortwave trough lifting into
southern Canada. Across southern Texas, a closed, cut-off low will
develop and slowly move east-southeast toward the Gulf of Mexico.
...Northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, and northwest Kansas...
Minimum afternoon relative humidity is expected to be lower on
Monday than on Sunday. However, the background surface-pressure
gradient should be somewhat weaker than on Sunday as low pressure
moves east. Generally, this would compensate for the decreased
relative humidity across the area. However, strong northwest
850-millibar flow will mix down to the surface during the afternoon
giving gusty winds. After collaboration with National Weather
Service forecast offices in Boulder, Colorado and Goodland, Kansas,
will go ahead and introduce elevated fire-weather delineation with
this forecast. If mixing of 850-millibar flow is stronger than
currently expected, critical delineation would be warranted in
Farther south, across southeast Colorado, the surface-pressure
gradient should relax, similar to farther north. However, unlike
farther north, 850-millibar flow will be weaker, resulting in less
potential for gusty surface flow due to mixing.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...