Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 041627
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THE ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

..LEITMAN.. 08/04/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0342 AM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO THE NWRN CONUS
THROUGH THE D2/WED PERIOD...WHILE THE FLOW ON ITS SRN PERIPHERY
ENCOURAGES THE ENEWD MIGRATION OF AN IMPULSE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NRN/CNTRL GREAT BASIN TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. WHILE DRY-TSTM
POTENTIAL WILL NOT ENTIRELY BE NEGLIGIBLE...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS
IMPULSE MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF DRY-THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON
D2/WED SUCH THAT RELATED FIRE-WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS HAVE NOT BEEN
INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MODESTLY ENHANCED FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM
PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN WA INTO N-CNTRL ORE. ELSEWHERE...A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SWRN CONUS...WHILE CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN WA INTO N-CNTRL ORE...
SIMILAR TO D1/TUE...SWLY TO WLY SFC WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DOWNSLOPE-FLOW-ENHANCED WARMING/DRYING
SUPPORTING MINIMUM RH VALUES FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE 20S ON
D2/WED. THIS WILL YIELD ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS GIVEN
DRY/VERY DRY FUELS. THERE WILL EXIST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
BORDERLINE-CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MATERIALIZE ON A
BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN ANY MORE THAN
SHORT-DURATION/LOCALIZED/MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS...PRECLUDING
CRITICAL DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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