Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FNUS73 KMQT 280900
FWSMQT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BRIMLEY RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
DRIFT SOUTH TODAY AS A SHARP COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN ONTARIO ALSO
DRIFTS SOUTH. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND OFF WHITEFISH BAY THIS AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHWEST...PROBABLY BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM EDT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE...BUT THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO
OCCUR WEST OF THE BURN AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BE
HIGHER...AROUND 50 PERCENT. EXPECT GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY
TONIGHT TO AROUND 95 PERCENT. THE SHARP COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL
DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. WHILE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH.
IT WILL ALSO BE MUCH COLDER MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM THE
LOWER 50S TO THE UPPER 40S.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50 AT IGNITION...MAX 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 50 PERCENT.
GENERAL WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH OR
                    LESS SHIFTING TO THE WEST 4 TO 9 MPH BY LATE
                    MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 7 TO
                    12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (33) AT IGNITION. MAX...FAIR (238).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 100-1500 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 2000-3400 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 400-1100 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........24     23     25     29     39     43
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....FOG    NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............50     60     71     76     74     71
RH..............100    82     61     50     54     61
GENERAL WIND....SW 4   SW 4   W 5    NW 6   NW 6   NW 6
GENERAL GUST....5      5      8      10     10     12
VINDX KT-FT/100.33     10     103    238    121    32
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 15  W 10   W 8    W 8    W 7    W 6
MIX HGT (FT)....300    100    1500   3400   2000   600
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      4      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    PATCHY FOG THROUGH LATE EVENING. A CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 53.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 95 PERCENT.
GENERAL WINDS.......VARIABLE WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS BECOMING SOUTHEAST
                    7 TO 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3...OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 13 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (13).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-300 FT AGL.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.11 INCHES.

TIME (EDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   6 AM
SKY (%).........40     44     56     76     78     82
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY PATCHY S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....FOG    FOG    RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............64     61     60     59     58     55
RH..............78     83     84     85     87     90
GENERAL WIND....NW 3   NW 3   E 3    SE 5   SE 5   SE 6
GENERAL GUST....              5      7      7      9
VINDX KT-FT/100.15     16     25     28     25     25
TRANSPORT WIND..W 7    W 9    W 12   W 13   SW 12  SW 12
MIX HGT (FT)....300    200    300    300    300    300
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      3      3

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LIGHT
                    RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 56.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 84 PERCENT.
GENERAL WINDS.......EAST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2...OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 8
                    TO 14 MPH LATE.
VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (264).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2200 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.31 INCHES.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........90     96     99     100    100    100
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
TEMP............53     53     53     51     49     48
RH..............95     93     91     93     89     85
GENERAL WIND....E 6    E 6    E 6    NE 8   NE 8   NE 9
GENERAL GUST....9      9      10     13     13     14
VINDX KT-FT/100.23     23     12     8      83     219
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 10  SW 10  SW 8   SW 3   E 8    NE 13
MIX HGT (FT)....300    300    200    300    1200   2000
HAINES INDEX....2      2      2      2      2      2

$$
FORECASTER...ROLFSON
REQUESTED BY...PATTY CARRICK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140928.BRIML.01/MQT






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