Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 221746
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1145 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

                VALID NOVEMBER 22 THROUGH NOVEMBER 27

...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF TEXAS TODAY FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A deep low pressure system over northern Mexico south of El Paso is
beginning to produce a widespread (beneficial) precipitation event
over Texas and Louisiana.  Low level southerly winds have transported
Gulf moisture northward, and during the past 24 hours a weak upper air
disturbance already produced light to moderate rain over roughly the
southeast half of Texas and western Louisiana.  Isolated areas
received close to 2.00 inches of rain.  The low pressure system is
moving east within an active southern branch of the jet stream, and
has set the stage for showers and thunderstorms.  With abundant
moisture and significant large scale lift (courtesy of this storm
system), widespread showers and thunderstorms have formed earlier this
morning from west central to south central Texas.  Other thunderstorms
were ongoing from the Red River northward into Oklahoma.  Some severe
thunderstorms are expected over south Texas through this evening.

The low pressure system is forecast to cross Texas this afternoon and
tonight.  As a result, thunderstorms will continue and will produce
point rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts in
excess of 4 inches in some areas of northern, central and southeast
Texas. This heavy rainfall could produce areas of runoff, but due to
the localized nature of the heaviest rain, widespread mainstem river
flooding is not expected.  The speed of the storm will prevent
rainfall amounts from being excessive.

On Sunday morning the strong Pacific storm system will exit the area,
leaving drier weather in its wake.  The dry weather is expected to
persist through Monday morning.

On Monday and Tuesday a couple upper air disturbances and a cold
front are forecast to move through Texas. Atmospheric moisture will
be limited, thus little or no shower activity is expected with their
passage.  Cool, dry weather is expected from Tuesday night into
Thanksgiving Day as high pressure approaches the region.  The only
prospect for precipitation would be over the Colorado Rockies.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch or more are forecast for the area east of
a line from Childress to Midland to south of Corpus Christi.  The
heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 2.00 inches, are forecast for parts
of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana from near Beaumont to
Lake Charles.  Widespread MAP amounts of 1.50 inches are also
expected.  Lighter MAP amounts are forecast across most of Texas,
extreme northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast
for southwestern Colorado.  Lighter MAP amounts are forecast for the
northern third of New Mexico, much of Colorado and extreme northeast
Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are
forecast for extreme northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (44%) and 10% has extreme to
exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 2% has extreme to
exceptional drought. Significant rainfall is expected the first
half of this weekend and should be heavy enough to produce runoff in
some areas, mainly over the northern, central and southeast Texas.
However, the runoff will not be enough for widespread, significant
mainstem river flooding to occur.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Rivers will remain below flood criteria through the forecast period.
However, significant precipitation is forecast across portions of
Texas this afternoon and tonight. As a result, some higher than
normal flows and minor flooding is possible in southeast Texas as
well as the headwater areas in the middle portions of the Brazos
and Colorado river basins.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$




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