Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 181727
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1127 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017

                 VALID JANUARY 18 THROUGH JANUARY 23

...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THROUGH TOMORROW...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Widespread rainfall is continuing to impact portions of East
and Southeast Texas this morning. Heavy rainfall developed
along a frontal boundary overnight across the southeast Texas
coast. This resulted in some minor and moderate flooding over
several river systems, including the Houston Bayous. Portions
of Southeast Texas received 5.00 to 6.00 inches of rainfall
over the past several hours, and additional significant
rainfall is expected the next 12-24 hours across the same
areas.

A strong upper level low will begin to slowly move towards the
northeast the next day or so. As this feature continues to
approach the WGRFC region from the west, the boundary situated
along the coast will begin to move eastward. By tomorrow evening,
rainfall will begin to taper off, however in the meantime
additional rainfall amounts of up to 4.00 inches are forecast
for portions of Southeast and East Texas once again. This
activity will likely impact the San Jacinto, lower Trinity,
Sabine and Neches river systems.

By Friday, a temporary drying trend will begin across the
region going into the weekend, however the overall weather
pattern will remain someone active for the next several days.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 4.00 inches are forecast for portions of
Southeast and East Texas.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00
inch are forecast for portions of the southeast Texas coast.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00
inch are forecast for portions of Colorado, New Mexico and
East Texas.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00
inch are forecast for portions of Colorado, New Mexico and
East Texas.

There was a slight increase in the abnormally dry category in the
drought conditions noted in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for
Texas through January 10, 2017. While there was little change for
New Mexico. In Texas, the area considered to be abnormally dry is
now at 25%. Also, 6% of Texas is experiencing moderate drought
conditions and less than 1% remains in severe drought, particularly
over northeast Texas near the Red River. In New Mexico the drought
monitor shows around 34% of the state experiencing abnormally dry
conditions, with 4% remaining in moderate drought.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Over the last 24 hours, a stalled boundary has produced significant
rainfall over the Houston metro and the surrounding region. This
boundary has produced a band rainfall with 24 hour maximum total
in the 4-5 inch range south and west of the Houston metro. Another
region of widespread 2+ inches has produced numerous action stage
and minor level flooding which has affected the coastal basins
north and south of the Houston metro.

In the Houston metro, the San Bernard river at Boling (BOLT2) was
the only forecast point that was crest to forecast above moderate
flood stage as of 15z on Wednesday. Surrounding river basins
that met minor flood level criteria include the Guadalupe, Neches,
San Bernard, San Jacinto, Neches and Sabine. Forecasts above action
stage were issued on the Brazos, Colorado, Lavaca, San Antonio and
Trinity basins.

River forecasts have also been issued for the Rio Grande River
between Lake Amistad and  Laredo, Texas. For  the river reach
between Lake Amistad and Laredo, minor flooding is occurring at
various locations because of releases from Lake Amistad.

Over the next 24 hours the QPF forecast for southeast Texas poses
a continue flood risk to eastern basins including the Neches,
Sabine, and lower Trinity river systems. Rivers in these basins
are at risk of continued action stage to minor flood forecasts.
Small headwater basins are at risk of reaching moderate flood
stage in these river systems.

Seasonal to low flow conditions are generally occuring for the
region of the WGRFC forecast area north and west of the Dallas
Fort Worth Metro.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

MCCANTS


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