Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 201610
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1109 AM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017

                  VALID AUGUST 20 THROUGH AUGUST 25

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY IN NEW MEXICO...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
High pressure is in place over Texas, bringing hot conditions to the
region. Along the western edge of the ridge, locally heavy rainfall
has been observed in New Mexico as well as in northwestern Texas
during the past 24 hours. Rainfall is ongoing in southern New Mexico,
and this is expected to continue and move slowly northeastward as an
upper level disturbance moves northeastward through a moist
atmosphere over the state. Rainfall locally heavy enough for
flash flooding is possible today and Monday in New Mexico.
Southeastern Texas, especially near the coast, should be active as
well today and Monday for showers and thunderstorms, but heavy
amounts are not expected.

The west should remain in an active monsoon pattern during the
coming week, but the threat for heavy rainfall should be reduced
after Monday before returning mid to late week. Organized
showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain can be expected in
northern and central Texas beginning Wednesday due to the passage of
a cold front.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for most of New Mexico and
for far western Texas into northern Mexico. The heaviest amounts of
1 inch are forecast for southern New Mexico. MAP amounts of up to
0.25 inch are forecast for southeastern Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are
forecast for portions of New Mexico and far western Texas. MAP
amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast for the Texas Gulf Coast.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch
are forecast for far northern Texas and for portions of northern New
Mexico and southern Colorado. MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are
forecast for the Texas Gulf Coast. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast
for the rest of New Mexico and for western Texas.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are
forecast for portions of northern and central Texas and for northern
and western New Mexico. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch to 0.5 inch are
forecast for southern Colorado, the rest of New Mexico, and the rest
of northern and central Texas and the Texas Hill Country.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 10%, and only 1% of Texas is
experiencing moderate drought conditions.  In New Mexico, only 1% of
the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, and that is in
the southwest portion. The rainfall forecast the next five days may
be heavy enough to produce runoff in southern New Mexico and
possibly along the Rio Grande in far western Texas. Otherwise, there
may be some runoff mid week in North Texas.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The headwaters of the Sabine are still experiencing minor flood
levels after continuing recent heavy rainfall.

...Rio Grande Basin...
Luis Leon reservoir in Mexico is releasing water which will keep the
Rio Grande higher than normal through the Presidio and Big Bend
regions.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other mainstem sites and tributaries are at seasonal flow levels
with no additional flooding expected for the next few days.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

PHILPOTT


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