Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 051613
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1112 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

                    VALID JULY 5 THROUGH JULY 10

...ONE MORE DAY OF SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN BEFORE SHIFT OCCURS...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The summer ridge continues to sit over the New Mexico area which for
one more day will allow for monsoonal rainfall to develop over New
Mexico.  The pattern has also been conducive for coastal showers to
pop up over south east Texas in the afternoon hours and there is the
potential for that to continue today.  Otherwise, the most of the
WGRFC area will remain dry for today with similar temperatures as
the previous few days.

There is an upper level trough pushing through the northern plains
that is strong enough to push a cool air mass south towards the
Texas Oklahoma border.  This front should begin impacting parts of
the WGRFC area tomorrow as the frontal boundary will be pushing
through the pan handle in about 24 to 36 hours.  The warm moist air
accumulating the past several days over Oklahoma and Texas will be
lifted by the boundary creating some decent heavy rainfall storms
along the front.  This should push through Monday night into Tuesday
down towards the northern Texas area.  The upper level trough does
begin to lift northward as it moves east on Tuesday which will keep
the cold front from diving into central Texas.  So for now
precipitation is expected for north central Texas moving eastward of
north eastern Texas.

During this time, monsoonal rainfall over the New Mexico area should
continue while the rest of the WGRFC will have just a slight chance
of an isolated shower, particularly near the Gulf Coast.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 is possible over northern New Mexico and southern
Colorado.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of an inch are possible
over north central Texas, with amounts decreasing southward with
0.25 inches possible as far south as the Big Bend region.  0.5 to an
inch are also possible over northern New Mexico and southern
Colorado area.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 2 to 3 inches are
forecasted by WPC over north central Texas with 0.5 inches possible
south to the Big Bend area.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are
forecasted for most of New Mexico as well as far west Texas.

Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full
and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules.
Soil moisture remains high across much of Texas from rainfall over
the past two months.  Rainfall over the next five days in primarily
southeastern Texas may be enough to cause some runoff locally, but
significant, widespread runoff is not expected. Rainfall intensities
and potential runoff will be monitored.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Flooding continues along the Trinity River mainstem.  Minor flooding
will continue for some time as travel time from Dallas to Lake
Livingston averages about 2 weeks. A wave of minor flooding is
working its way down the middle Trinity River. Trinidad (TDDT2) has
fallen to minor flood and Long Lake (LOLT2) is at minor flood levels
and falling. Riverside (RVRT2) has begun rising slightly into minor
flood stage.   Lake Livingston has been holding at 28,400 cfs
outflow for several days, but an increase is possible
this next week due to increasing inflows. For now, levels continue
to fall downstream at Liberty (LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2).

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Canyon Lake has reduced releases which will lower the remaining
forecasts as that reduced flow pushes downstream.  Still elevated
flow expected at Victoria (VICT2) and Bloomington (DUPT2) through
forecast period.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues only on the Neches River near Town Bluff
(TBFT2). There is still significant flood water in Sam Rayburn
Reservoir which is above the flood pool; therefore releases will
continue for several weeks and will keep Town Bluff within minor
flood.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues at Mineola (MLAT2) and  Deweyville (DWYT2).
Toledo Bend Reservoir will not do any power gen today or Sunday.
This will create fluctuations in stage downstream at Burkeville and
Bon Wier this week,

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
All locations along the river are now below minor flood levels.
However, flows along the river system will remain elevated above
normal because of the releases from the upstream lakes

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Monsoonal rains continue in New Mexico with some areal and flash
flooding where locally heavy rains occur from daily convective
activity. Elsewhere, flows tend to be near seasonal with exceptions
noted in specific basins.

Refer to the Meteorological discussion for rain chances over the
next 5 days.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO


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