Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 271602
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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1101 AM CDT THU APR 27 2017

                    VALID APRIL 27 THROUGH MAY 2

...AFTER DRY WEATHER TODAY, A NEW STORM WILL AFFECT THE WGRFC REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Today will be a mostly dry day across the WGRFC area.  The storm
system which brought showers and thunderstorms to east Texas and
western Louisiana Wednesday is now well east of the WGRFC area.  A
zonal upper air flow continues this morning across our region. Upper
air disturbances have been rippling through this flow, and one trough
is generating some light precipitation over northern New Mexico and
Colorado now.  Over the past 24 hours, around 1.33 inches of
precipitation fell near Cumby in northeast Texas, and around 0.35 of
an inch fell near Taos NM since Wednesday morning.  Most of the
upper level disturbances will stay north of our region through
tonight.

On Friday a stronger upper air disturbance is forecast to develop
over Colorado.  Along with some precipitation over the western
parts of the WGRFC area, showers and thunderstorms will likely
develop over Oklahoma Friday, which are forecast to move southward
into extreme northern Texas by Saturday morning as this storm
deepens.  On Saturday this storm will deepen over New Mexico and
begin moving slowly east, and by Sunday morning this storm will be
moving over Kansas.  Showers and thunderstorms will continue Saturday
into Sunday morning over primarily northern and eastern Texas, with
some locally heavy rainfall possible.  Excessive rainfall is possible
just north of the Sabine River basin over extreme northeast Texas.
The WGRFC will continue to monitor the progress of this storm system.

The precipitation should move east during the day Sunday, and mostly
dry weather is expected from later Sunday into Monday and Tuesday
morning.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over southern
Colorado and northern New Mexico.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or
more are forecast for northern Texas, as well as over central and
northeast New Mexico and most of Colorado.  The heaviest rainfall,
with MAP amounts of over 1.00 inch, are forecast north of the Red
River north of the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over the northern half of Texas, most of New Mexico
and Colorado.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or
more are forecast for roughly the northeast half of Texas and
western Louisiana, as well as over the northeast third of New Mexico
and southeast Colorado.  The heaviest rainfall, with MAP amounts of
3.00 inches, is forecast over extreme northeast Texas along the Red
River into southeast Oklahoma, as well as northwest of Shreveport LA.
MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over most
remaining portions of the WGRFC area except for deep south Texas and
southwest New Mexico.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for extreme east Texas and Louisiana.  The heaviest
rainfall is forecast well east of the WGRFC area over eastern
Louisiana.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast
over roughly the eastern third of Texas, and over the Texas
panhandle.

Soil moisture conditions continue to show improvement due to recent
rainfall events. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the
area considered to be abnormally dry at 9%. Also, 1% of Texas was
experiencing moderate drought, with nothing in severe drought. In
New Mexico the Drought Monitor shows 41% of the state experiencing
abnormally dry conditions, with nothing in the moderate drought
category or worse categories.  The rainfall forecast may produce
significant runoff over the northern and eastern Texas basins this
weekend.  Elsewhere, no significant runoff is expected over the
WGRFC area the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
With cooler temperatures the snow-melt has slowed in the Upper Rio
Grande so current levels will be maintained without the diurnal
rises.

Precipitation is forecast across southern Colorado and northeast
Texas during the next 7 days. Minor flooding is likely with the
projected rainfall. At this time, the heaviest rainfall is
forecast to impact portions of the Neches, Trinity and Sabine
basins.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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