Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 231609
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1108 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

                    VALID JULY 23 THROUGH JULY 28

...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WGRFC AREA THIS
WEEKEND, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A ridge of high pressure at the mid and upper levels of the
atmosphere is centered over the Texas panhandle this morning. This
ridge is forecast to remain in place for the majority of the region
over the day or two.  As a result, hot and dry conditions will remain
the dominate weather over the WGRFC area.  Hydrologically, we are
experiencing drying soils after such a wet Spring.  Over the next
two days an isolated shower or two remains possible over southeast
Texas into southern Louisiana, especially along the Gulf coast, due
to the sea breeze front.  And, isolated diurnal showers and
thunderstorms will be fairly likely through the weekend over portions
of western and northern New Mexico and south central Colorado, mainly
due daytime heating and orographic lift near the mountains.  Mean
areal precipitation will be minimal.

Starting Sunday and continuing into next week, the ridge of high
pressure is forecast to shrink and shift slightly to the west as a
couple of short wave troughs push eastward from the northwestern U.S.
This shift will allow the rain chances to increase across parts of
our region.  The most favored area for rain will be over eastern
Texas and Louisiana. An easterly wave of low pressure is forecast to
move across Louisiana Sunday night and into east Texas on Monday.
This, along with some moisture advection will lead to at least
scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Some rainfall amounts of
over 1.00 inch are possible over the Toledo Bend country. By
Tuesday the easterly wave will focus itself closer to the middle
Texas Gulf coast.  This wave, combined with the sea breeze front,
will likely result in some scattered showers and thunderstorms for
south Texas and the Gulf coast Tuesday into Thursday morning.  The
rain chances will also continue over parts of New Mexico and Colorado
due to the monsoon.  But elsewhere over Texas, especially the western
parts of north Texas, very warm and dry weather will persist through
mid-week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts
of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the San Juan Mountains in
north central New Mexico.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch
are forecast for the northwest two thirds of New Mexico, most of
Colorado, the southeastern quarter of Texas and Louisiana.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are
forecast for portions of southern Colorado into northern New Mexico,
as well as over extreme east Texas into most of Louisiana.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for most of New
Mexico, much of Colorado, the eastern third of Texas and Louisiana.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of northern and western New Mexico into
southern Colorado, as well as over the eastern third of Texas into
most of Louisiana.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch,
are forecast over extreme southeast Texas into western Louisiana. MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the eastern
half of Texas, most of New Mexico, much of Colorado, and Louisiana.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of New Mexico into southern Colorado, as
well as over south central and southeast Texas into southern
Louisiana.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for
most of the remaining areas within the WGRFC area of responsibility.

Soils continue to dry out across Texas due to the warm temperatures
and a lack of significant rainfall.  The U.S. Drought Monitor has
categorized Texas as 13% abnormally dry, with almost 2% in moderate
or greater drought. Over New Mexico, 77% of the state is abnormally
dry, and 16% remains in the moderate drought category. Some rainfall
is forecast over the next five days primarily over east Texas and
western Louisiana.  This will keep drought out of this region, but
only minor runoff is anticipated.  The lack of significant rainfall
elsewhere will lead to continued drying in most areas through this
forecast period and no significant runoff is expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Above normal flows continue on the Elm Fork of the Trinity River near
Carrollton (CART2). Lake Lewisville and Lake Grapevine have decreased
their releases, so CART2 has dropped to near action stage but is not
forecast to drop below criteria this weekend.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Above normal flows continue along the lower Brazos River at Richmond
(RMOT2). The elevated flows are expected to continue through the
weekend.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Higher than normal seasonal flows are occurring in the eastern half
of the state. Some rain is expected across parts of the region over
the next 5 days, but no significant river responses are expected over
this time frame.  Daily convective activity can cause minor rises
anywhere in the forecast area, but most areas have little chance of
seeing any significant convective activity over the next several
days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

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