Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 251802
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1201 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

                VALID DECEMBER 25 THROUGH DECEMBER 30

...A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WGRFC AREA BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY,
WITH A LARGER STORM POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridge of high pressure is over Texas this morning.  As
a result, dry and cool weather is being observed for Christmas Day
over a good part of the WGRFC area.

To our west, another upper level low pressure system has formed
northwest of the Great Salt Lake.  This new storm is bringing a return
of a moist southwesterly flow aloft to the mountains of New Mexico and
Colorado.  Snow has started to fall there and is expected to continue
through today and tonight in these regions. As the low settles in over
the Four Corners region Friday morning the mountain snow will
continue, with precipitation spreading east to cover more of New
Mexico.

By Friday night the low is forecast to open up and shift slowly
eastward toward Kansas.  As this occurs moisture will return
northward from the Gulf of Mexico, and showers are forecast to
develop over northern and eastern Texas.  A cold front will also be
advancing eastward across Texas through Saturday which may bring
additional showers.  Basin averaged rainfall should be generally under
1 inch, with the heaviest rain being over southeast Texas and
southern Louisiana where moisture will be the deepest.  The low
pressure trough and cold front will exit the WGRFC area into
Louisiana during the day Sunday, and that will bring an end to the
precipitation.

Dry weather is forecast across the WGRFC area from Sunday night
through Monday as a zonal flow aloft develops.  But by Tuesday
morning a new, larger low pressure system is forecast to develop over
Utah and Nevada.  This low may begin to spread more precipitation to
portions of northern New Mexico and southern Colorado by Tuesday
morning.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast for southwestern Colorado and
northwestern New Mexico.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for much of Colorado and the western two thirds of New
Mexico.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of southern Colorado, as well as for
portions of northeastern Texas. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for Colorado, most of New Mexico, most of northern and
eastern Texas, and Louisiana.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.00 inch are
forecast for southeastern Texas and Louisiana.   The heaviest
rainfall amounts are forecast east of the WGRFC area over southern
Louisiana.  Lighter MAP amounts are forecast for the rest of eastern
and southern Texas.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for southeastern Texas and most of Louisiana.  MAP amounts of
0.25 inch are also forecast for portions of southern Colorado.
Lighter MAP amounts are forecast for the southeastern third of
Texas, much of northern New Mexico and Colorado.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (43%) and 10% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of
the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%) and 4% has
extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Soils are generally dry
enough in most areas so that the forecast rainfall will not generate
runoff. However, the rainfall may be heavy enough to produce some
runoff over southeast Texas during the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Neches Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Pine Island Bayou at Sour Lake is currently experiencing higher than
normal flows.  Flows at this location are beginning to taper off.
River stages are forecast to fall below criteria levels this morning.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remaining WGRFC river systems are below criteria levels.  No
flooding is expected over the next several days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$




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