Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 041716
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1116 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

                    VALID MARCH 4 THROUGH MARCH 9

...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WGRFC AREA THE NEXT
24 HOURS, BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE END OF THE WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A large low pressure system is over Baja California this morning. Well
out ahead of this storm, light precipitation has occurred across
especially the western parts of the WGRFC area the past 24 hours.
Precipitation amounts of close to one inch occurred over southern
New Mexico.  Over Colorado and northern New Mexico, some light
precipitation fell as well, but it was not as heavy as previous days.
The upper level flow over the WGRFC area of responsibility is out of
the southwest which is drawing in additional upper level Pacific
moisture over the region.  As a result, widespread light precipitation
has formed from eastern New Mexico to central and north Texas, with
some rain forming over east Texas as well.

A strong cold front has begun to move through Texas, and extends from
northeast into central and west Texas now.  A strong upper level
trough is moving over the northern United States from Canada which is
giving this front its push.  Additionally, the low pressure system
near Baja California will continue to move eastward.  The combination
of these systems will generate widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms today as the front moves across Texas. Behind the front
light precipitation will continue this afternoon and tonight.  With
the cold air moving in, a mixture of wintry precipitation is possible
over north and central Texas through tonight.  The upper level storm
is forecast to move east of the region by mid-day Thursday, and cold,
dry air is forecast to move in.  Thus most of the precipitation will
end during the day Thursday.  Some lingering light precipitation is
expected in south Texas on Thursday and Thursday night before dry
weather sets in.

By Friday a ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop over
northern California.  This will keep most of the WGRFC area in a west
or northwesterly upper air flow with dry weather being the result.
There is one exception, however.  A storm system over Mexico is
forecast to move eastward Saturday and may bring some precipitation
to deep south Texas and areas along and near the Texas Gulf coast
Saturday into Monday morning. Most of the precipitation should be
light, with no hydrologic impacts expected.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 1.00 to 2.00 inches are forecast for portions of
northeastern Texas, with heavier amounts forecast east of our region
over Arkansas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for much
of Texas except for the deep south portions.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch
are also forecast for a small part of northern New Mexico and southern
Colorado.  Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for most of the WGRFC area
of responsibility.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are
forecast over Deep South Texas near South Padre Island, with lighter
amounts over the southeast third of Texas and Louisiana.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for Deep South Texas.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for areas along and near the Texas Gulf coast and into
southern Louisiana. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for the southern
half of Texas and the southern two thirds of Louisiana.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (43%), and about 14% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (68%), and 4% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions.  Lake levels in these exceptional
drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time of year.
Rainfall amounts of over 1.00 inch are forecast for northeastern
Texas the next 5 days which could produce minor runoff.  Elsewhere,
little or no runoff is expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Another round of precipitation over the headwaters of the upper Sabine
River is expected this evening/overnight, which will again generate
enough runoff to bring the Cowleech Fork (GNVT2) and South Fork (QLAT2)
into minor flood.  Further downstream, the Sabine River at Deweyville
(DWYT2) will crest near action stage late week.  Toledo Bend reservoir
is now generating continuously 1 unit until further notice.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most rivers are generally near normal baseflow conditions across the
eastern WGRFC area and below normal across the western areas. Forecast
precipitation across northeastern Texas will generate new  rises on
small streams and creeks within headwater areas within the  Sabine and
Neches river basins.  However, these continued periodic rains are
highly beneficial; allowing slow deeper soil moisture penetration that
has been limited over the past few years.  With the current rainfall
forecast, no significant flooding is expected.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$




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