Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 231624
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1023 AM CST TUE JAN 23 2018

                 VALID JANUARY 23 THROUGH JANUARY 28

...A COUPLE PERIODS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A strong low pressure system is located over the Great Lakes this
morning.  Very dry air has pushed into the WGRFC area behind this
low, and there has been no precipitation over our region the past 24
hours.  Dry and seasonably cool conditions are expected through
Thursday morning. A weak storm may bring some light rain to deep
south Texas, mainly Wednesday into Thursday, but elsewhere no
significant rainfall is expected through mid-week.

A weak upper air disturbance will cross Texas Thursday into Friday
morning.  But at this time only light rain is expected across mainly
east and southeast Texas.

Another weak upper air disturbance will be moving across Texas
Saturday into early Sunday.  Some showers and thunderstorms may occur
anywhere over the eastern half of Texas, but the heavier rainfall is
forecast just east of the WGRFC area over Louisiana.

Drought conditions are expected to continue through the end of the
month with very little significant precipitation or flooding forecast
over the next week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.
MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of
deep south Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of deep south Texas.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for the Texas Gulf coast into south central Texas and
extreme southwest Louisiana, as well as over the western parts of
north Texas into the Permian basin.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast
for portions of extreme southeast Texas into most of Louisiana, as
well as over portions of deep south Texas.  MAP amounts of less
than 0.25 inch are forecast for the eastern half of Texas, as well
as over extreme northern New Mexico into southwest Colorado.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 79%, with around 41% of the state
experiencing moderate drought and 16% in severe drought. In New
Mexico, 100% of the state is having abnormally dry conditions, with
87% in moderate drought conditions and 12% in severe drought. The
precipitation forecast the next 5 days will not be heavy enough to
produce significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Upper Rio Grande Basin...
The upper Rio Grande snowpack in southern Colorado and north central
New Mexico, in general, is averaging about 45% of seasonal normal.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Area rivers remain below criteria and are expected to continue at or
below normal flows for the next 5 days, as no significant rainfall is
expected during this time frame.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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