Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 281657
1057 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

                  VALID FEBRUARY 28 THROUGH MARCH 5


                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A couple weak upper air disturbances moved across northern and
eastern Texas the past 24 hours.  The atmosphere is moist and
unstable across the eastern half of Texas, so as these disturbances
moved across scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developed.
Rainfall amounts were generally light and most readings were a half
inch or less.

A stronger storm system is approaching the WGRFC area from the west
this morning. As this storm approaches heavy snow has been widespread
over southwest Colorado and northern New Mexico, with showers at
lower elevations.  This snow should taper off tonight.  As this storm
moves eastward today some showers and thunderstorms will develop,
with the best chances being over northeast Texas into Arkansas.
Basin averaged rainfall amounts should generally be light in our
region, with any heavier amounts more likely over the Arklatex.
Flooding concerns are not anticipated from this rainfall. By this
evening the upper level disturbance should be over Colorado and will
quickly cross Kansas Wednesday morning. An associated cold front
will pass quickly through Texas, pushing the showers and
thunderstorms southward to the coast by noon Wednesday.

Behind the front, high pressure will result in cooler and dry
conditions throughout the WGRFC area of responsibility later on
Wednesday through Thursday.

By Friday morning an upper air disturbance is forecast to develop
west of Baja California.  Moisture will begin to flow northward ahead
of it and will slide up and over the old frontal boundary over deep
south Texas.  As a result showers will be on the increase near the
lower Texas Gulf Coast Friday. The rain will spread northward
Saturday and widespread light rain is expected over most of south
Texas. By Sunday morning the light rain may spread as far north as
northeast Texas and will persist over the south.  At this time it
does not appear the rain will be heavy enough to produce mainstem
river flooding.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of southwestern
Colorado and northern New Mexico.  MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are
forecast for much of northern and eastern Texas into northern
Louisiana, as well as over the northwest half of New Mexico and the
Texas panhandle into Colorado.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are
forecast for the southeast quarter of Texas and along the Texas Gulf
Coast into much of Louisiana.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are
forecast for much of the lower Texas Gulf Coast.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are
forecast for much of south Texas. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts
of 1.00 inch, are forecast just south of Corpus Christi TX.  MAP
amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast for much of the southern half
of Texas and southwest Louisiana.

Rainfall continued to improve the soil moisture conditions across
much of Texas last week, but the unseasonably warm, dry conditions
are causing some soil moisture loss this week. The last U.S. Drought
Monitor for Texas showed the area considered to be abnormally dry was
around 8%.  Also, 2% of Texas was experiencing moderate drought
conditions and less than 1% was in severe drought. In New Mexico the
drought monitor shows around 13% of the state experiencing abnormally
dry conditions, with around 3% remaining in moderate drought. The
rainfall forecast the next five days will not produce significant
runoff over the WGRFC area.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Rivers in Texas continue to recede after responding to last weeks
rainfall. All rivers have returned to normal flows and are below
forecast issuance criteria. No significant rainfall is forecast
across WGRFC in the next 5 days so no flooding is anticipated.

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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