Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 291547
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1047 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

                 VALID AUGUST 29 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 3

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO THE NEXT 5 DAYS, BUT ONLY LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The weak trough in the overall ridge did bring some precipitation
over the past 24 hours to the northern Texas region, but has since
dissipated as the weakness has pushed eastward.  The large scale
upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the Rockies, with the
surface high centered over southern Colorado.  This will limit the
shower and monsoonal activity keeping the WGRFC domain dry over the
weekend.  There is the possibility of a stray shower in western New
Mexico or near the coast depending on the available moisture
streaming in from the south.

The first real chances for a change in pattern will come mid next
week as the GFS model proposes a TUTT low developing over the
western Gulf of Mexico.  This would allow more lift along the
coastal region which will generate some coastal showers mid next
week.  These showers should not push to far inland and no flooding
is expected.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are
forecasted for far northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are
forecasted for the Gulf Coast region.

Drought conditions are returning to a good part of the southeast
two thirds of Texas.  Topsoil moisture has decreased during the
past month or so, thus it will take more rainfall for runoff to
occur. In Texas 41% of the state is abnormally dry, with 6% in
severe drought.  In New Mexico, 51% of New Mexico is also abnormally
dry.  The rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy
enough to cause significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Lower sustained releases from Lewisville and Grapevine will keep
Carrollton near action stage criteria levels through the forecast
period.  These flood control reservoirs, along with Ray Roberts,
continue to slowly evacuate the flood storage accumulated this past
May and June during heavy rainfall episodes.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of WGRFC rivers are below criteria.  The precipitation
forecast over the next couple days is not expected to create
significant issues.  Dry soil conditions continue across most of
Texas. Lake levels continue to remain near conservation or within
flood pools for much of north and east Texas while most west Texas
reservoirs are well below conservation.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO


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