Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 251555
1054 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016

                 VALID OCTOBER 25 THROUGH OCTOBER 30


                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The ridge of high pressure that has dominated most of the WGRFC
region is breaking down and is shifting east this morning.  The
ridge had produced dry conditions this past weekend.  But over the
last 24 hours a weak upper air disturbance produced some light
showers over portions of eastern and central Texas.  And further
west, a new upper level disturbance is producing an area of showers
and thunderstorms over central and western New Mexico into
southwestern Colorado.  As this disturbance continues to move east,
some rainfall will continue over far west Texas into parts of New
Mexico and Colorado through tonight.  Then this disturbance is
forecast to move out into the central plain states Wednesday.  Some
rain is expected with the passage of this trough, with most of the
rain forecast from Oklahoma into Missouri.  But there is a chance
that the tail end of the rain could make it as far south as north
Texas.  Even if the rain makes it into Texas the amounts will be
light.  This disturbance will move east of Texas Wednesday night,
and the chances for rain will end.

Dry weather will return through the end of the week into the weekend
as an upper level ridge of high pressure is expected to develop
over southeast Arizona by Wednesday night.  This feature should
keep the WGRFC region very dry the next several days starting
Thursday.  By Saturday the ridge will move northeastward and will be
centered over north Texas.  Since the ridge will shift northeast
an easterly wave of low pressure will move toward the Texas Gulf
coast. As a result some light precipitation is possible along the
southeast Texas coast as southerly flow increases and allows abundant
moisture to move into the area. Rainfall amounts are expected to be
less than 0.25 of an inch into Sunday morning.  Some rainfall from
this easterly wave may move northward into east Texas early next
week, but no flooding is expected for the foreseeable future.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast along the lower
Texas Gulf coast, over far west Texas, over parts of New Mexico, and
southern Colorado.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over north central and northeast Texas into
northwest Louisiana. and along the lower Texas Gulf coast.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast along the lower Texas Gulf coast.

For Friday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast along the middle and lower Texas Gulf coast.

Its been abnormally warm and dry recently, therefore deteriorating
drought conditions are depicted in the latest drought monitor
released on October 20th.  The abnormally dry category increased from
22% to 29% primarily over east Texas. Also, 6% of Texas is in
moderate drought conditions primarily over parts of east and deep
south Texas. In New Mexico, nearly 50% of the state is in abnormally
dry conditions but much of that area is outside the WGRFC domain.
The rainfall forecast the next five days will not be heavy enough to
produce runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Rivers across the WGRFC area are near baseflow conditions except for
Candelaria (CDET2) on the Rio Grande.  No significant rainfall is
forecast over the next several days so no flooding is expected at
this time.

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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