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FLUS44 KSHV 211745
HWOSHV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-221100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS MUCH
OF EAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...AND INTERACT WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY...VARIOUS CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES LEFT IN PLACE FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE. ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL EXPAND AND DEVELOP OVER
REMAINING PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. WINDS FEEDING INTO THE
AREA WILL BE TURNING WITH HEIGHT PROVIDING WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL
HELP WITH UPDRAFT ROTATION...SUCH THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PROVIDED BY
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THAT CAN PRODUCE FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES
OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TONIGHT AS IT
PROPAGATES EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA...WHERE STRONG DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST
TEXAS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 OVER EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...WHERE A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY. THESE STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND AMATEUR
RADIO PERSONNEL...WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

$$

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