Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 260558
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
158 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE NW COASTAL WATERS AND IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF REACHING THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY LIFT
OUT NE ACROSS SOUTHERN GA EARLY MON REACHING OFFSHORE SC ON MON
AFTERNOON LEAVING A NE-SW RIDGE ACROSS THE SE CONUS. THIS WILL
SET UP A RETURN FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 3-5 FT
ACROSS THE NW WATERS ON MON NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT EARLY TUE...AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES ON WED WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO NLY 5-10 KT
OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 22N W OF 90W ON WED NIGHT AND THU IN
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NE 15 KT
FLOW CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE N TODAY WITH
NE WINDS AT 15 KT CONTINUING ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 26N E
OF 86W THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK W ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS ON MON-WED REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON
THU. THE WILL RESULT IN THE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING E AT 15
ACROSS THE FL STRAITS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...THEN INCREASING
TO 15-20 KT MON EVENING THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO PERHAPS 6 FT IN THE GULF STREAM. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
ACROSS THE FL STRAITS ON WED AND THU AS WINDS BACK TO THE NE AT
15-20 KT ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOSING IDENTITY ALONG 76W. A SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS S OF 15N TODAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON MON-TUE...REACHING THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON WED-THU. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
LOCATED TO THE S OF 17N ALONG 47W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL ATLC
WATERS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE...AND PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN
ON WED-THU.

BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING NEAR 16N82W AND IS ANALYZED AT
1008 MB. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND IS NOW
WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY INTO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH SHOULD
PULL THE COLD FRONT SE TO A POSITION OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY 15-20 KT WINDS WITH SEAS 3-5 FT ARE
OBSERVED W OF THE COLD FRONT...EXCEPT NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS WITH
SEAS 5-8 FT ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT EARLY TODAY IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING SE TO OFFSHORE THE
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATE TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH ALL
GUIDANCE MOVES THE LOW W ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...THE
EUROPEAN ARRAY OF GUIDANCE IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BOTH THE
THE NAM AND GFS IN THE STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WINDS WHICH
WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. THE GFS
IS OF COURSE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND SUGGESTING 30 KT...SO USING
MODEL BLENDING TO REDUCE THE E FLOW TO MAX OF 25 KT WITH SEAS TO
8 FT PRIOR TO THE LOW MOVING INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON TUE
EVENING. STILL EXPECT THE LOW TO DRAG REMNANTS OF THE FRONT W
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIP WHICH IS
DENOTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW NEAR
29N72W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS E
CUBA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RACE NE OF THE AREA TODAY DRAGGING
THE COLD FRONT E TO A POSITION FROM 31N60W TO HISPANIOLA THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 31N57W
TO 26N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLY MON...WITH THE SOUTHERN
SEGMENT BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS DRIFTING W ACROSS THE FAR SE
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ON MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A
RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM W TO E ALONG 28-29N W OF THE FRONT EARLY
TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING E OFF THE GA COAST TO NEAR
31.5N80W THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA ON MON
MAINTAINING NE 15 KT FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N W OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ON MON INTO EARLY
TUE...WITH THE WINDS THEN BECOMING ENE AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF 25N ON WED-THU. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A WEAK TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW WATERS ON WED NIGHT AND THU ACCOMPANIED
BY ONLY A 10 KT WIND SHIFT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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