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AGXX40 KNHC 271841

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
241 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


A weak stationary front continues across the NE Gulf coastal
waters, this afternoon, from inland NE Florida to SE Louisiana.
Expect the boundary to drift S across the FL coastal waters
through tomorrow morning, before dissipating. Elsewhere light to
gentle E to SE winds prevail across most of the basin except far
SW sections, where an inverted trough is developing along the
Mexican coast and yielding moderate S to SE winds between far SE
TX and Veracruz. Slight seas prevail at 1-3 ft with possible
isolated areas to 4 ft W portions.

Only slight changes in conditions expected next 24 hours as
inverted trough persists along the Mexican coast and coastal
waters. A frontal system moving into the Great Plains will
combine with high pres moving to the Ern seaboard to produce
moderate to fresh return flow across most of the basin on Wed and
then gradually strengthen to fresh to locally strong Thu night
into Fri as the frontal system moves SE into the TX Panhandle.
Seas to increase to 4-6 ft during this time, with Yucatan diurnal
thermal trough yielding strong winds across N and NW peninsula
waters, with potential to increase seas briefly to 7 ft. Somewhat
similar conditions to continue into the weekend as a weak high
settles into the far NE Gulf and the frontal boundary retreats
nwd into the Central Plains.

55W AND 64W...

Modest Atlc ridge continues from central Atlc to NW Bahamas and
yielding modest pres gradient across the basin this afternoon.
Mid summer pattern appears entrenched attm with series of
tropical waves moving W through the basin separated by SAL and
fair weather in between. A tropical wave is entering the W Carib
along 77W/78W, with the best moisture behind the wave and
flaring up with sct cnvtn S of Windward Passage and S of Jamaica,
to 14N/15N, and fresh SE winds and seas 7-8 ft N of 16N and just
behind wave axis. The next broad wave is approaching the Tropical
N Atlc waters attm, and has a secondary perturbation trailing in
invof 49W. Active cnvtn is expected to accompany this wave
generally S of 13N as it move W through basin next few days.
Broad area of SAL and some zones of significant dust will be moving
into Carib ahead and across the top of this wave during the next
36 hours. ENE winds around 20 kt to accompany this wave with E
to SE winds around 15 kt behind it. An area of 7-9 ft seas also
depicted by recent altimeter passes within the fresh ENE winds
and will shift W and hit the islands tonight through Wed. Slight
SE shift of Atlc ridge by tonight expected to produce sufficient
increase in pres gradient across basin to yield peak nocturnal
winds near 30 kt off of Colombia tonight and Wed night before
gradient weakens as second tropical wave moves across central
portions and expands fresh to strong winds across N central
portions. Atlc ridge to nose back into FL and NE Gulf of Mexico
by the end of the week, and behind this second wave, in order to
bring a return to strong trades across much of S central Carib
on Friday and Saturday.


Atlc ridge extends from 1027 mb high near 34N50W to NW Bahamas
and central FL, while weak frontal boundary has stalled across
extreme NW corner of FA. This is yielding moderate to fresh E
trades S of 23N E of 70W and moderate SE winds W of there around
the periphery of the ridge, becoming light to moderate S to SW
off NE FL coast. Seas are 4-5 ft and locally 6 ft across the SE
waters in zone of trades and 2-3 ft elsewhere. The frontal
boundary will meander through today then shift E and drag along
about 29N-30N Wed before lifting N of area Wed night-Thu. This
will maintain these generally mild winds and seas across the
waters through the end of the week. As the ridge noses wwd Thu-
Fri, the diurnal thermals along the N coastal zone of Hispaniola
will expand to 22N with seas pushing 8 ft there during the

Expect SAL and hazy conditions to shift W into SE waters today
through Wed ahead of tropical wave approaching Windward Islands.


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by


55W AND 64W...



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