Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
000
AGXX40 KNHC 101829
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
129 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

Strong high pressure centered north of the basin with a ridge
axis extending southward over inland eastern Mexico will continue
to support a gale south of 21N west of 95W until 0000 UTC Sunday.
Fresh to strong northeast winds will also continue south of 26N
through much of tonight, as a stationary front remains from the
Florida Straits to the Yucatan Channel. On Sunday the strong winds
will become confined to the southwest and southeast corners of the
Gulf, including the Florida Straits as the stationary front
dissipates and the high to the north slides east. The highest
seas Sunday will be over the southwest Gulf, and also over the
Florida Straits, where the northeast winds will interact with the
Gulf Stream current to enhance wave heights. The high will reach
the western Atlantic Sunday with a ridge axis becoming setup
across northern Florida by Monday. This will result in the
development of a weak return flow pattern over the Gulf basin from
Sunday night through Tuesday night with seas subsiding to 2 to 3
ft on Monday, lasting through Wednesday. Latest model guidance
then brings a cold front to the northern Gulf late Wednesday or
early Thursday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A stationary front extending from western Cuba to just north of
Cozumel, Mexico will linger over the northwestern Caribbean
tonight, weakening through the day Sunday. Fresh to strong winds
over the Yucatan Channel will diminish tonight as the high to the
north slides east. The pressure gradient between the high north of
the basin and lower pressure over the southwest Caribbean and
Colombia will support fresh to strong trades over most of the
Caribbean south of 18N the next several days. Winds will pulse to
near gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight and again Sunday
night due to a slight tightening pressure gradient due to
nocturnal fluctuations. The high will become centered over the
central Atlantic Sunday night through Monday night which will help
to expand the strong trade winds across the eastern Caribbean as
well as the Atlantic forecast waters. The high will slide even farther
east through mid week, helping to somewhat relax the trades over
the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic forecast waters.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A stationary front from around 27N65W to the central Bahamas to
the Florida Straits will remain in tact through tonight and then
dissipate through the day Sunday. Strong high pressure north of
the front will support an expanding area of fresh to strong winds
north of the front and south of 28N through tonight. The stronger
winds will then shift to the east and southeast into Monday as the
high to the north also shifts eastward toward the central
Atlantic. The area of strong winds and seas 8 ft or greater will
begin to diminish Tuesday as the high continues eastward toward
the eastern Atlantic. A cold front will enter the far northwest
waters Wednesday night and clip the northern zones through
Thursday. Current model consensus keeps the strong winds and seas
greater than 8 ft associated with this front north of the area.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     Gale Warning today.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.