Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS21 KWNC 261918
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 26 2015

SYNOPSIS: AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE EASTERN LOWER 48 STATES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED
TO APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE NATION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST NEAR THE ALEUTIANS AND GULF OF ALASKA. BY MID-PERIOD, ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LATER IN THE PERIOD, AN AREA
OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.



HAZARDS

HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, NORTHEAST,
AND MID-ATLANTIC, SUN-MON, MAR 29-30.

FLOODING ONGOING FOR SMALL PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SUN-MON, MAR 29-30.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CASCADE RANGE, SUN-WED, MAR
29-APR 1.

HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BITTERROOT RANGE, TUE-WED, MAR
31-APR 1.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND
NORTHEAST, SUN, MAR 29.

SLIGHT CHANCE OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC,
SAT-MON, APR 4-6.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, GREAT
BASIN, CALIFORNIA, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SUNDAY MARCH 29 - THURSDAY APRIL 02: COLD HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES (NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OF 10-15 DEGREES F) FOR PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS,
SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST MAR 29. STRONG FLOW AROUND THE REARSIDE
OF THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN COMBINATION WITH LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER IS PREDICTED TO LEAD TO HIGH WINDS (IN EXCESS
OF 30 KNOTS) FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, NORTHEAST,
AND MID-ATLANTIC MAR 29-30.



ONSHORE FLOW AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN (IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH IN 24
HOURS) FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST WASHINGTON MAR 29-30, HEAVY PRECIPITATION
(RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH IN 24 HOURS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, SNOWFALL IN
EXCESS OF 4 INCHES IN 24 HOURS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS) FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CASCADE RANGE MAR 29-APR 1, AND HEAVY SNOW (IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES IN 24 HOURS)
FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BITTERROOTS MAR 31-APR 1.



ANTECEDENT RAINFALL LEADS TO ONGOING FLOODING FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THIS REGION, ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE MAR 31-APR 1, BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THE SPECIFICATION OF A
HAZARD SHAPE AT THE CURRENT TIME.

FOR FRIDAY APRIL 03 - THURSDAY APRIL 09: AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
LEADS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND
MID-ATLANTIC APR 4-6.



THE MOST RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, VALID MARCH 24, INDICATES A VERY SLIGHT
INCREASE (16.24 TO 16.97) IN THE PERCENTAGE OF LAND IN SEVERE DROUGHT (D2-D4).

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

$$




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