Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 170930
SPC AC 170929

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

Ensembles indicate that in the mean, the large-scale pattern will
remain dominated by a trough over the eastern states through most of
the day 4-8 period, limiting potential for significant low-level
moisture return and severe storms. However, around day 5 (Tuesday)
models continue to depict a shortwave trough becoming detached from
the northern stream and moving southeast through TX with a modest
surface response. Partially modified gulf air will precede this
feature into coastal TX as mid-level lapse rates steepen. Storms may
develop in vicinity of a lee trough across south TX where vertical
shear and destabilization might support at least a marginal severe

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