Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 210518
SWODY2
SPC AC 210516

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND LATE OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PRIMARY PORTION OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY
WHILE THE SRN PORTION OF THE WINDSHIFT MOVES MORE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS
NE/KS AND EXTENDS THROUGH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...A VERTICALLY-STACKED CYCLONE WILL MEANDER OFF THE
NJ/LONG ISLAND COAST.  FARTHER W...UPSTREAM OF THE TWO
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER FEATURES...THE EXIT REGION OF STRONG CYCLONIC
BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL OVERSPREAD THE
PACIFIC NW STATES.

...CNTRL PLAINS STATES...
LEE TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS PRIOR TO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL HAVE INVOKED SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE NWD PROGRESSION OF 50S
DEWPOINTS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.  LITTLE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INCREASE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS A WEAK COLD FRONT/WINDSHIFT MOVES TO
E-CNTRL NEB AND WRN KS BY MID-AFTERNOON.  MODELS SHOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ONLY WEAK BUOYANCY OWING TO MARGINAL
MOISTURE/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  WHILE A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  WEAK WARM ADVECTION OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY
MAY FOCUS OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

..SMITH.. 10/21/2014



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