Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 161730
SWODY2
SPC AC 161729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD DURING THE
PERIOD WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE ACROSS THE
NRN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. DECAYING REMNANTS OF TC
ODILE SHOULD PROGRESS INTO SRN AZ. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT
SHOULD STALL OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO OZARK PLATEAU.

...OZARK PLATEAU AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT 12Z/WED NEAR THE
KS/MO BORDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME AND
A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. WITH RICHER
MOISTURE RETURNING FROM OK/TX BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AMIDST NWLY FLOW...CLOUD-BEARING SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE MORNING.
AS THE LLJ WEAKENS AND THE IMPULSE PROGRESSES TO THE TN
VALLEY...MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE.

AIR MASS ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD STRONGLY
DESTABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY AS DIURNAL HEATING
OCCURS AMIDST MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. PERSISTENT
MID-LEVEL NWLYS WILL MAINTAIN A STOUT EML WITH QUITE STEEP LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN WHETHER DIURNAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT RISK
EQUIVALENT PROBABILITIES. LOWER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WEAK SUGGESTING
CONVERGENCE MAY BE LIMITED AND BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPEARS
NEUTRAL. BUT IF A COUPLE OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS WERE TO BE
SUSTAINED...30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A
PRIMARY RISK OF LARGE HAIL.

...SRN AZ...
TC ODILE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD...BUT A RELATIVE
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL E/SLYS SHOULD OCCUR OVER A SPATIALLY CONFINED
AREA OF S-CNTRL/SERN AZ. ALTHOUGH HODOGRAPHS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR LOW-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...POOR LAPSE RATES AND NEGLIGIBLE TO
MEAGER BUOYANCY SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW/WEAK TO
WARRANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK.

..GRAMS.. 09/16/2014




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