Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 270626
SWODY2
SPC AC 270625

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EPISODIC PERIODS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
ON SUNDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE SERN U.S. COAST WILL REMAIN STEADFAST AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH --INITIALLY OVER SWRN TX SUNDAY MORNING-- QUICKLY
MOVES NEWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENS.  FARTHER WEST...A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MOVE SEWD FROM THE
PACIFIC NW STATES AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN.  IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT OVER THE SERN U.S. AND CNTRL GULF COAST WILL
MOVE SEWD AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

...CNTRL GULF COAST...
MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN --CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND AND MID 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST-- WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION VIA SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
SLOW SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT.  AS THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE DAY...MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK LAPSE
RATES.  DESPITE STRONG MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW...FAIRLY WEAK AND
VEERED SURFACE-H85 FLOW AND A PAUCITY OF BUOYANCY /AOB 250 J PER KG
MUCAPE/ WILL LIMIT STORM INTENSITY AND PRECLUDE LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

..SMITH.. 12/27/2014



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