Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS02 KWNS 241709
SWODY2
SPC AC 241709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST OK
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND INTO SOUTHWEST MO...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN OK INTO WESTERN MO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind are expected
to develop across parts of northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri Tuesday evening, and may persist into Wednesday
morning.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will amplify across the southern Plains with strong
southwesterly flow aloft developing from TX into the mid MS valley.
At the surface, a low pressure trough will precede a cold front,
extending from western OK into central IA at 00Z, with dryline
extending southward across central OK and into TX. The front will
move southward overnight, to a north TX to central MO line by
Wednesday morning. Ahead of these boundaries, a moistening and
destabilizing air mass will reside, with dewpoints rising into the
60s.  Increasing wind fields as well as lift along the front will
result in a corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms beginning
Tuesday evening across northeast OK/southeast KS.

...Northeast OK...Southeast KS...Western MO...
Strong heating will occur across much of central and western OK into
southern KS, south of the cold front and along and west of the
dryline. Surface flow will be somewhat veering/southwesterly, but
winds will back by evening as a 50 kt low level jet core develops
generally east of I-35. Storms are expected to initiate near the
dryline/cold front intersection across south central KS or north
central OK, then increase in coverage and intensity during the
evening as lift increases along the front. Mean wind fields will
increase overnight with the main upper trough amplification. A
mixed-mode of supercells and linear/bows appears probable, with
large hail and damaging winds expected. The linear forcing mechanism
coupled with nocturnal timing suggest any tornado threat will be low
or brief.

..Jewell.. 04/24/2017

$$



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