Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
ACUS03 KWNS 210615
SPC AC 210614
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
A few thunderstorms are possible early in the period across the
Middle Atlantic while isolated storms may develop from from
California into the Four Corners region.
Strong upper low is expected to lift into the Middle Atlantic region
early in the period which should allow modified warm sector to
advance into portions of VA by daybreak Monday. Organized severe
convection will likely approach VA late in the day2 period as strong
forcing encourages convection to spread into the Middle Atlantic
ahead of the upper low. However, it`s not clear how much buoyancy
will exist by day3 along/just south of the warm front due to
extensive clouds and aforementioned convective overturning. At this
time it appears instability will prove too meager to warrant low
severe probs early in the period.
...CA to Four Corners...
Another strong mid-level jet is forecast to sag southward across CA
before translating inland along the international border during the
latter half of the period. Lapse rates are expected to steepen
sufficiently north of the jet for weak convection extending from
coastal CA into the higher terrain of southwest CO.