Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 010713
SWODY3
SPC AC 010712

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US TUESDAY.  GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

...SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND CONSISTENT MODEL WITH
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AS IT DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
SERN U.S. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DAY3.  MODEST 500MB FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SERN U.S. SUCH THAT ANY STORMS
THAT FORM AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO ORGANIZE INTO MULTI-CELL ROBUST CONVECTION.  WHILE FORECAST LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STEEP...PW VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
1.5 IN AND SBCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG...SUGGEST HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.  SCT THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE COLD FRONT BUT
MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING SHOULD AID BUOYANCY.

..DARROW.. 05/01/2016

$$


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