Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
000
ACUS03 KWNS 290731
SWODY3
SPC AC 290730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS AND LOWER MO
VALLEYS INTO THE CNTRL-SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE NERN GULF COAST AND N
FL...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS.  LOCALIZED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND
NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY.  A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MIGRATE EWD AND WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S N TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S DEG F OVER THE SRN PLAINS.  A BELT OF STRONGER MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL LARGELY LAG BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST SUPPORTING MAINLY A MULTICELLULAR MODE WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD SEVERE RISK.  FARTHER S AND
REMOVED FROM THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF STRONGER FLOW...THE FRONT
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR TSTM INITIATION AS STRONG HEATING
WEAKENS THE CAP.  STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY.  THE OVERALL MODEST WIND FIELDS WILL TEND TO
LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK.  ISOLD LARGE HAIL EARLY IN THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE MAY BE FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
RISK BY EARLY EVENING WITH A FEW STORM CLUSTERS THAT MANAGE TO
DEVELOP/CONGEAL AND MOVE SEWD.

...NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND N FL...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE /NAM-GFS-ECMWF-UKMET/ ALL INDICATE AN
ACTIVE DAY FOR SEA BREEZE STORMS ALONG THE NERN GULF COAST INTO NRN
FL.  THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND STRONG HEATING WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLD TO SCATTERED STORMS BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEG F WILL YIELD
AMPLE PW FOR WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF A LOCALIZED STRONG
TO LOW-END SEVERE GUSTS CAPABLE OF POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES.

..SMITH.. 05/29/2016

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.