Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 191336
SWODY3
SPC AC 191335

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0835 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/NERN TX...

CORRECTED FOR PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

...TX...

SLOW-MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD TO NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 21/12Z.  SFC
FRONT WILL COINCIDE WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH EARLY BUT LAG ACROSS CNTRL
TX AS WEAKLY SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW DEEPENS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EVEN SO IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING AND A CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHIFT SHOULD ENCOURAGE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG SW-NE
ORIENTED BOUNDARY.  THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS NERN TX WHERE FAVORABLE UVV AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE WILL ENCOURAGE SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
MAY BE REDUCED ACROSS THIS REGION.

LATEST THINKING IS SCT CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
PERIOD ACROSS OK INTO THE RED RIVER REGION OF NRN TX.  EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD MAINTAIN WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS
REGION LIMITING MORE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF
OK.  STRONG HEATING WEST OF I-35 SHOULD RESULT IN DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER AND SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 9 C/KM.  WHILE
PRIMARY REGION OF ASCENT WILL SPREAD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION
EARLY...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z ALONG ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY.  MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...ON THE ORDER OF 30KT...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MULTI-CELL
UPDRAFTS...AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS.  PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH
SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION THAT SPREADS SEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

..DARROW.. 04/19/2014




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