Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 241800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
100 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

Dry high pressure will remain over the region into early Saturday.
A fast-moving cold front will move through the area Saturday afternoon
and may bring a few showers to the mountains. In the front`s wake,
another round of dry high pressure will overspread the region and
persist into the middle of next week.


As of 1250 PM Friday: Latest visible satellite imagery remains
fairly quiet across the area this afternoon, as abundant
sunshine has allowed for temperatures to climb into the low to
mid 50`s attm. Expect temperatures to continue their ascent
into the upper 50`s/around 60 degrees by this afternoon, while
some mountain locations have already reached their peak high`s
for the day. No changes were made to the going forecast attm.

As an upper level trough axis continues to move eastward across the
Carolinas today, latest guidance continues to indicate flow
will become more zonal tonight. At the sfc, high pressure is
gradually shifting to the south-southeast, as light and variable
winds are expected to make a shift to the southwest later this
evening into the overnight hours. Do anticipate cirrus to
gradually increase west to east tonight, though should remain
fairly thin into Saturday morning. Min temps will remain
slightly above normal overnight.


As of 320 AM EST Friday: the short term fcst picks up at 12z on
Saturday with very broad upper trofing digging down across the Great
Lakes and most of the Eastern CONUS, while equally steep upper
ridging builds over the Western CONUS. This overall pattern will
remain largely in place thru most of the period, although heights
will begin to recover on Monday as the trof axis lifts northeast
and the ridging spreads farther east. At the sfc, a cold front
will be approaching the fcst area early Sat and is expected to move
thru the CWFA by early Sun. Another round of dry high pressure
overspreads the area in the front`s wake and lingers well into the
extended period. As for the sensible fcst, the period should be
mostly dry. The overall moisture profile of the Saturday front is
shallow with only a few hundreths of a inch of QPF possible over
the higher terrain. Temps will climb above climatology on Sat and
cool back down to near normal, if not a degree or 2 below, on Sun.


As of 2 AM EST Friday: the extended fcst picks up at 12z on Monday
with broad upper trofing moving off the New England Coast and upper
ridging building over the Great Lakes and Miss River Valley. By early
Tues, the ridge will flatten out as it moves over the southeast and
another northern stream upper trof will move rapidly eastward across
Ontario and Quebec. At the same time, a southern stream H5 low will
close off over the SW CONUS and Southern Rockies. This low will lift
northward as it approaches our area late Wed into early Thurs and
open up into a weaker shortwave as it moves over the region. The
feature is expected to move offshore by late Thurs/early Fri. It`s
notable that the 12z ECMWF is nearly 24hrs slower with the progression
of the feature compared to the GFS and Canadian models. At the sfc,
broad high pressure will be in place over the region to start the
period. The center of the high is expected to drift offshore late
Tues, as a fast-moving cold front moves across New England but
remains well to our north. On Wed, the models try to develop a weak
low over the Southern Plains and then lift the system NE towards
the Ohio River Valley. If this pans out, the low would bring a weak
cold front to our doorstep by the very end of the period, early Fri.


At KCLT and Elsewhere: Expect VFR to prevail through the valid TAF
period as high pressure persists over the area. Light and variable
winds along with nearly clear skies will continue through this
evening, as winds are progged to become calm in some locations
overnight. Would not entirely rule out brief MVFR due to fog at KAVL
towards morning, but given lower confidence have not introduced
attm. On Saturday, expect VFR to continue as high clouds gradually
increase in opacity throughout the day ahead of an approaching cold
front. Light southwesterly winds will increase to around 5 to 8 kts
by late morning/early afternoon.

Outlook: Expect mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period as
generally dry and cool conditions prevail.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:




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