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000
FXUS65 KVEF 190727
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1227 AM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A weak disturbance will move inland Friday bringing a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the southern Sierra.
Otherwise, dry conditions and temperatures climbing well above
normal will continue through the weekend and early next week under a
ridge of high pressure. The next area of low pressure will move
inland middle to late next week resulting in gusty southwest winds
and temperatures gradually retreating back to near normal.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Monday night.

Area catching a short-lived break from the high clouds as guidance
shows next area over central California will be on the increase as
far east as Las Vegas by daybreak. HRRR, along with other members
that make up the HREF show that the air mass will destabilize this
afternoon as a result of slight cooling aloft associated with weak
shortwave trough moving through southern California. Did blend in a
small amount of camPoPs to better capture the slight chance for
showers or thunderstorms along the southern Sierra on Inyo County.

The shortwave trough continues east into Arizona tonight, with a
broad ridge of high pressure from California east to Colorado/New
Mexico Saturday-Monday. Temperatures will be well above normal, with
the warmest days coming Sunday and Monday. Latest probability of
MaxT exceeding 90 degrees at Las Vegas is 90% Sunday and Monday.
Probability of MaxT exceeding 100 degrees at Furnace Creek is 95%
Sunday and 90% Monday. Appears the lower CRV may be spared of
widespread triple digits for now as the probability of MaxT
exceeding 100 degrees at Lake Havasu City and Laughlin/Bullhead City
is 25% or less Sunday and Monday.

Only breezes today will be in the western Mojave Desert of San
Bernardino County. Less wind over the weekend but expect those
breezes to begin increasing across much of southern Nevada, eastern
California and northwest Arizona Monday.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday.

Decreasing temperatures are expected through the long term period as
a series of troughs move through the region. Gradual cooling will
begin by Tuesday through temperatures will remain several degrees
above normal, however, increasing southwesterly will bring gusty
conditions to much of the area, especially in the afternoon and
evening. Further cooling can be expected each day Wednesday onward,
with high chances for temperatures falling below normal by Thursday.
This means the Las Vegas area should finish of the week in the 70s
with cool conditions continuing through the weekend. The strongest
of the troughs appears to move through Friday into Saturday when the
coolest conditions are expected.  Moisture with these systems is
expected to favor the higher terrain, particularly across the Great
Basin and Sierra. However, gusty conditions can be expected each day
as the unsettled weather pattern hangs over the region.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Generally light and diurnal winds
anticipated through the TAF period. Chance of sustained winds
reaching 10+ knots prior to 00z is 30%. After 00z, the chance of 10+
knots increases to about 50%, most likely from the south-southwest
but there is a 20% chance of east winds of this magnitude from 00z
to 02z. After sunset, winds settle into a southwesterly direction
and persist through the night. SCT-BKN clouds around 20kft through
the day, clearing out tonight.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light and diurnal winds in the Las Vegas Valley today,
with 30-40% chances of 10+ knot sustained winds, increasing to 50-
60% after 00z. Light north or variable winds at KBIH until breezy
northwest winds of 10-15 knots arrive in the late afternoon. Persist
west winds at KDAG, increasing in magnitude around sunset. In the
Colorado River Valley, light south breezes develop this afternoon
with speeds around 8-10 knots. VFR conditions across the region with
SCT-BKN high clouds generally above 15kft, but could get down to
10kft at KBIH.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pierce
LONG TERM...Outler
AVIATION...Woods

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