Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 230019 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 819 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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810 PM UPDATE: BANDS OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA. THE WRAPAROUND BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE HOLDING OFF UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. PREV DISC: BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO PIVOT ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING OCEAN STORM SITUATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AT 18Z. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN ENTERING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT MOMENT WILL MOVE NORTH AND REACH SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL PRESS SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HEAVIEST QPF FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SOME PONDING OF WATER AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH THE RAINFALL WITH SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS APPROACHING BANKFULL. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ON FRIDAY THE LARGE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION WILL PEEL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF TO LIGHTER SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHICH WILL STILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALMOST AS SOON AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA A SECOND ONE BARRELS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE REGION AND SPREADING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE DEPENDENT ON LOCAL UPSLOPE EFFECTS WITH MUCH LESS OVERALL PRECIPITATION AND IMPACTS EXPECTED THAN THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM. WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF PERHAPS A HALF INCH ON SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS TAPER OFF TO JUST THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THINGS DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS WE NEAR HALLOWEEN AND GO FARTHER OUT IN TIME THE MODELS AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL PERTURBATIONS ARE LESS AND LESS IN AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. HOWEVER...BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE IT IS NOT A STRETCH TO SAY THAT WE WILL LIKELY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE MONTH. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING TO0 MUCH BELOW 35 OR TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN 55...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG TERM...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH WORSE CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND FOR MOUNTAIN TERMINALS IN LINGERING SHOWERS AND FOG. VFR FOR ALL SITES MONDAY OUTSIDE OF NORMAL MORNING VALLEY FOG.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS BUILDING 15 TO 20 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS ARE STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND ARE STRONGER THAN FORECAST SO INCREASED WINDS AND UPGRADED THE GALE WARNINGS TO STORM WARNINGS FOR THE OUTER WATERS WHILE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE BAYS. LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL DROP OFF LATE THAT NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW QUICKLY CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WITH A HIGHEST SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT... OCCURRING AT LOW TIDE ...COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A SURGE OF MORE THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE. I`VE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE 11 PM HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014- 018>028. NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010- 013-014. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-153. STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
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&& $$

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