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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 261251
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
851 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching front brings showers through the area on Monday
night and Tuesday. Drier weather returns for midweek. Late in the
week and into the weekend a broad area of low pressure will become
anchored over the Ohio River Valley and will bring unsettled
weather to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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845AM UPDATE...
Have updated mainly to adjust for the latest temperatures observed
this morning and update temperature trends through the rest of the
day. No other significant changes were needed.

655AM UPDATE...
Many locations are in the lower 30s this morning especially in
area valleys and sheltered areas. We should see freezing fog and
frost burn off shortly. A few cirrus clouds are crossing the area
this morning in association with a dirty ridge. These should shift
east this morning as the 1024mb high pressure centered over VT
moves east. Readings will warm quickly this morning in sunny skies
and a dry airmass.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
Clear skies this morning and light winds with the majority of
locations calm. Many areas are still in the mid 30s but should
continue to drop as dew points are in the lower 30s. A good part
of the north country and the foothills are already below freezing.
Will let the freeze warning continue as well as the frost advisory
until 8 am. After a cold start we should recover nicely with highs
in the upper 50s/lower 60s north to mid to upper 60s south.

High pressure passes overhead today and moves into the Gulf of
Maine tonight. An occluded front associated with strong low
pressure near the Great Lakes region will approach today. As winds
turn southerly and the low progresses moisture and clouds will
return.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
The front will reach the VT/NH border overnight tonight with
showers moving in west to east. For overnight temperatures we`ll
see widespread 40s and 50s. Rain will continue through the day
Tuesday until the front is ushered east. A sharply defined dry
slot arrives and dries out things from the SW. Expecting most
areas to get a quarter of an inch or less. We remain under a
strong jet stream and rain showers may linger in northern
sections.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A lot of uncertainty in outcome of developing upper cutoff low
over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes for later in the week.
Models begin with a dry slot over the area Wednesday but then differ
some in how to handle the northward progression of the precipitation
shield late in the week and into the weekend. Will hedge with a
chance of showers for now since it could go either way. A damp
onshore flow is expected for the latter part of the week and into
the weekend so due to a persistent onshore easterly flow. Used
superblend model temps but may be a little too warm due to the
onshore flow as ocean temps now in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR through this evening. Flight restrictions
possible early Tuesday morning as showers move in from the west.
This will continue through the first half of the day for most
terminals. MHT, CON, and LEB will be the first to clear out in the
afternoon. HIE may stay in scattered showers throughout the day.

Long Term...VFR conditions midweek will become MVFR to IFR in
scattered showers and ocean stratus late in the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and waves build in association with an occluded
front which will cross the waters Tuesday afternoon. Conditions
are expected to be sub-SCA or marginal at best.

Long Term...A prolonged east to northeast flow will gradually
allow seas to build reaching SCA levels over the outer waters by
late Wednesday and continuing the rest of the week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...Kimble
SHORT TERM...Hanes
LONG TERM...Marine