Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 300701 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 301 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...STALLING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... MARTIME CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST DUE TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST GRADIENT INCREASES TODAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AND A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL ALSO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE FORM OF HIGHER DEW POINTS. 00Z SUITE OF MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL BE LIMITED TO LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER PROGRESSION TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SHOWER AND STORMS CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW AS WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR MAINE. THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. BY SUNDAY MORNING...MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED OVER AND NEAR THE COASTLINE. EXPECT MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...THE FIRST IN SEVERAL MONTHS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS QUITE A CHANGE FOR THE GFS FROM LAST NIGHTS RUN AND IS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF FROM LAST NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MORE CHANGES TO TRACK AND TIMING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THE SITUATION IS EVOLVING TOWARD A RATHER WET 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CRANKING OUT SEVERAL INCHES OF QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH DIFERENCES IN LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST QPF PERSIST. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AND LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. UPPER LOW CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THR REGION EARLY THURSDAY PROVIDING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SHOULD SCRAPE OUT ONE MORE NICE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGIION. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS BEFORE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIFT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS...BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING TODAY. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WITH THE BAYS BEING VERY CLOSE WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING AND A LULL IN THE GRADIENT. HOWEVER...SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL REMAIN UP AND THEREFORE SCAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY MONDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... INCREASING HUMIDITY AND SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL LEAD TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WETTING RAINS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE AREAS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE WETTING RAINS SUNDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MEZ019>028. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ JC/ES

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