Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 251916 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 316 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST WINDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TOMORROW MORNING/...
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A SUNNY PLEASANT DAY IS IN PROGRESS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EVEN AS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS DENSE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NH/ME BORDER ALONG A WARM FRONT...AND A LARGE SWATH OF CLOUDS FROM NY STATE WEST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTH INTO CANADA. A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST BOUNDARY. DP DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE 10-20 DEGREES SO IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE BIT FOR ANY OF THIS TO REACH THE GROUND. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO MOSTLY AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE CAN INTERACT WITH FRONTAL FORCING. OVERNIGHT WE MAY GET A STRAY SHOWER AS FAR SOUTH AS A PLYMOUTH TO WATERFORD TO AUGUSTA LINE BUT IT WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS AS READINGS DROP BELOW 32... BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS. CLOUD COVER STICKS AROUND FOR THE MOST PART HELPING KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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SUNDAY WILL BE BRISK WITH GUSTY WNW BEHIND THE FRONT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE OUT OF THE MID 40S THE NORTH WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND READINGS IN THE MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EDGE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S. MORE LIGHT FLURRIES WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE WEEK STARTS OUT WITH A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE UPSLOPE SHOWERS COME TO AN END AS THE SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO CALM AND THE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH AND SHOULD RESULT IN FROST BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP TOO LOW. TUESDAY WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE WARM NOSE PUSHES INTO THE REGION. FOR COASTAL REGIONS...THIS MEANS FLOW RIGHT OFF THE WATER.. RESULTING IN A MARINE STRATUS LAYER MOVING IN BY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM... WITH 850MB TEMP AT +13C...MEAN WHILE, ON THE BACKSIDE BY 12Z THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS ARE AT -5C. THIS QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE THE WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURE A BIT TRICKY... MORE WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE A SUNRISE HIGH AS THE FRONT ALMOST IMMEDIATELY KEEPS TEMPERATURES FLAT AND DOWNWARD. MEANWHILE IN THE EAST ALONG THE COAST THE SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FINAL LAST HURRAH FOR THE FALL. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SITS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG FIRST A WARM FRONT AND THAN A COLD FRONT AS THEY NEAR THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. GUSTY WNW WINDS DEVELOP FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES WILL SEE CEILINGS LOWER TO IFR AS MARINE STRATUS AND FOG MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A PERIOD OF IFR WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT AT HIE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MARGINAL SEAS WILL SKIRT THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WINDS SHOULD REACH 25 KTS WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. LONG TERM...WEEK WILL START OUT CALM. AFTER THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY STRONG GRADIENT AND CAA WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN SCA CRITERIA FOR 12-18HRS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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COASTAL LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ROCKINGHAM COUNTY HAVE NOT YET HAD A FREEZE OR KILLING FROST THIS FALL. THE MEDIAN DATE OF THE FIRST FALL FREEZE BASED ON 30 YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGY IS OCTOBER 11 FOR THE MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE COASTLINES. IT IS NOW TWO WEEKS AFTER THIS DATE...THEREFORE WE WILL NO LONGER ISSUE PRODUCTS FOR FREEZES OR KILLING FROSTS FOR THIS AREA. THIS WILL CONCLUDE THE FROST...FREEZE PROGRAM FOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE FALL SEASON.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ HANES/CURTIS

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