252
FXHW60 PHFO 300633
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
833 PM HST Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate trades will prevail over the eastern islands through the
first half of the work week, while lighter trades over the
western end of the state allow for some leeward land and sea
breezes. Relatively dry weather will persist through Wednesday,
with a few showers affecting windward areas overnight into the
early morning hours and developing over interior and leeward areas
each afternoon. Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will
return Wednesday night and Thursday, bringing a transition over to
more typical trade wind weather. The trades will become breezy
Thursday night through early next week, and the trade wind showers
will likely increase in coverage and intensity as a disturbance
aloft moves over the islands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a weakening stationary front is located
around 400 miles west-northwest of Kauai, while a 1030 mb high is
centered 1700 miles northeast of Honolulu. Moderate trade winds
prevail over the eastern islands, while lighter trades remain over
the western end of the state. Infrared satellite imagery shows a
mix of high and low clouds resulting in mostly cloudy conditions
in most areas. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over Kauai
County, with mainly isolated windward showers over the remainder
of the state. Main short term focus continues to revolve around
trade wind trends and rain chances.

A front northwest of the islands will remain nearly stationary as
it gradually weakens into a trough tonight and Tuesday. Little
change is expected in the overall wind forecast, with moderate
trades holding over the eastern end of the state, while lighter
trades prevail over the western islands, allowing for leeward sea
and land breezes. We should see the trades start to rebound from
east to west Tuesday night and Wednesday, as the trough west of
the islands begins to shift slowly westward. Moderate to locally
breezy trades should overspread the island chain Wednesday night
and Thursday, with breezy conditions expected Thursday night
through early next week as a pair of highs consolidate to the
distant north.

As for the remaining weather details, relatively dry conditions
should generally prevail across the island chain through
Wednesday. Brief passing showers will be possible in windward
areas overnight into the early morning hours, with a few showers
developing over interior and leeward areas each afternoon. We
should see a transition over to more typical windward and mauka
focused trade wind pattern Wednesday night and Thursday, with
wetter trade wind conditions potentially developing Friday through
early next week as upper troughing sets up over the state and
gradually closes off into an upper low in the vicinity of the
islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
Hawaii remains wedged between surface high pressure far northeast
of the state and a dying stationary front to the northwest. This
will allow light to moderate east to east-southeasterly flow to
persist tonight through Tuesday. Expect scattered showers along
the windward portions of the islands and isolated showers
elsewhere. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility may occur
with this activity. Land breezes are forecast to transition to
sea breezes along portions of the leeward coasts Tuesday
afternoon.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh east to east-southeast trade winds will persist
during the next couple of days as high pressure remains far
northeast of the area and a stalled weakening front holds
northwest of Kauai. High pressure will build far north of the
state late Wednesday and Thursday, causing trade winds to build
into the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory will initially be issued
for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui and
may be expanded to additional waters Friday or Saturday.

Tiny surf will persist along north facing shores through Friday,
with a small pulse of northwest swell expected this weekend. A
small long period south-southwest swell will fill in tonight, peak
Tuesday, and ease Wednesday, followed by small background level
surf on south shores for the rest of the week. Choppy surf along
east facing shores will decline over the next couple of days, then
gradually increase as trade winds rebuild. Rough east shore surf
will likely rise above seasonal average Friday into the weekend.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Shigesato