Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 222326
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.AVIATION...
Radar shows some potential for feeder bands into TD Cindy
affecting KIAH, KCXO and KUTS through about 02Z. Chances go down
through the mid and late evening. MVFR looks likely to develop
between 06Z and 09Z. The ceilings should lift to VFR between 16Z
and 18Z on Friday. Also expect winds to pick up as well. The Texas
Tech WRF and HRRR both show some potential for isolated showers
during the afternoon from KIAH eastward.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Remnants of Cindy continue moving into far nw LA this afternoon.
As Cindy continues to move newd tonight, she will leave an
elongated axis of low level convergence and abundant moisture in
her wake across southeast TX. Will keep chance to slgt chance PoPs
running accordingly across eastern counties tonight with some
hint in the short range guidance that we could see showers develop
near the coast/bay newd. All in all, we expect conditions to
continue improving from west to east with gradual reduction in
winds and showers overnight. However, it will remain quite mild
with min Temps well in the 70s /lower 80s along the coast/ given
the rich tropical moisture still in place.

This will help set the stage for a very hot and muggy Friday.
While forecast max temps are not out of the ordinary in the upper
80s near the coast to mid 90s inland, combination of tropical dew
points will boost heat indicies significantly. HIs will get well
into the lower to mid 100s by early afternoon nearly areawide and
could approach or briefly exceed advisory conditions for some
spots in the afternoon. Fortunately south winds will remain in the
10-15 mph range, especially near the coast, which will help some.

Pattern will settle into a very unstable regime with rain chances
increasing into the weekend as a cool front moves into the region
and stalls. This will keep chance to good chance of showers Sat
through Mon. At least the rain chances and clouds will reduce the
heat a bit through the weekend, before we settle back into a more
typical summer pattern next week.

Evans

MARINE...
Winds in the wake of Cindy are backing through west on their way to
southerly. We are entering a relatively lull in the winds, but with
the pressure gradient expected to tighten back up, winds back up to
around or a little above 20 knots is expected. Because of this, have
extended the small craft advisory through the morning. Winds and
seas will slowly diminish through the weekend, but periods of
moderate onshore winds can be expected into early next week.

Tides are still elevated as winds are somewhat slow to come down,
but now only in the neighborhood of 9 inches to a foot above normal.
Because of this, low water in Upper Galveston Bay is likely not so
much a concern. Indeed, the above normal levels may be a continued
focus around high tide tomorrow morning, but at this time don`t
expect it to be quite high enough to cause significant troubles.

Luchs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      76  95  77  88  73 /  10  10  30  60  40
Houston (IAH)              77  92  78  88  75 /  30  20  30  60  40
Galveston (GLS)            82  87  81  87  79 /  30  20  30  50  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters
     from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...40



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