Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 182311
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
511 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.AVIATION...
Front is in the process of pushing off the coast. VFR conditions
are expected in its wake across southeast Texas, but gusty north
winds 20-30kts will remain a concern for a good part of the
evening and overnight hours...stronger at the coast. Will probably
see the gustiness taper off 6-9Z inland, followed by some 12-20kt
gusts again toward mid morning Sun.  47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/
Strong cold front continues to push across southeast TX late this
afternoon as advertised. Leading wind shift has moved to a ne-sw
oriented axis just off the TX coast at 21z, with reinforcing front
and 10 degree colder air lagging behind about 50-75 miles. Strong
northerly winds accompany this shot of colder air and afternoon
models are consistent in cranking these winds up along the coast
this evening as it pushes into the Gulf. We have been seeing some
30-35 mph gusts as front pushed through College Station earlier,
which will likely be even stronger along and just off the coast
this evening. Sunday will start noticeably colder with morning
mins in the lower to mid 40s roughly north of I-10 and west of
U.S. 59, and around 50f nearer the coast. Highs tomorrow will top
out in the low to mid 60s.

The return to normal or just below weather will hold through the
beginning of the week, although return flow will bring max Ts back
in the lower 70s Tuesday along with a chance of showers near the
coast. This will increase ahead of another cold front bringing
seasonably cool and dry weather for the area through Thanksgiving
and into next weekend.

MARINE...
The cold front looked to be on the previously forecasted schedule
and should be off of the coast around or shortly after sunset.
Moderate southwesterly winds ahead of the front will likely diminish
slightly just ahead of the actual front. Strong offshore winds will
then develop behind the frontal passage with frequent gusts to over
gale force expected tonight. Seas will respond and should reach into
the 8 to 11 foot range with occasionally higher wave heights. High
pressure ridging will help end ease the thermal gradient and surface
pressure gradient and lead to a diminishing of winds and seas to
below advisory criteria by late in the morning to midday Sunday.

Low water levels are likely over the upper reaches of the bays and
into the Houston Ship Channel, especially with a strong northwest to
north wind developing this evening. Lowest levels are wind speed and
direction dependent but there are indications that levels could get
to between one-half and one foot below predicted levels during the
times of low tides Sunday afternoon or evening.

As stated earlier this morning, light northeasterly winds will
gradually become onshore by Tuesday ahead of the next cold front
moving into the waters late Tuesday or Wednesday, with another round
of caution or advisory flags possibly needed in its wake.

40

FIRE...
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible on Sunday behind a
strong cold front as drier air results in minimum relative
humidities falling to near 30 percent. 20 foot wind speeds will
start out in the early morning between 10 and 15 mph over the
central and coastal areas. However these should diminish throughout
the day. There may be a brief period during the midday period for
elevated fire conditions over the southwestern set of counties,
especially in locations where finer fuels such as grasses have dried.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      43  64  41  66  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              46  66  43  66  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)            54  64  54  67  62 /  10   0   0   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for the following zones:
     Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...Jackson...Matagorda.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for the following
     zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CST this evening
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Sunday for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$


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