Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 201750
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1250 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WELCOME TO THE THE OCTOBER DOLDRUMS. THE SEASONAL COOL DOWN AND
LACK OF MOISTURE IS EVIDENT AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
THAT WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE WEEK...BUT WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST BATTLE IS GOING WITH 0
PERCENT OR 10 PERCENT OVER THE PERIOD.

THE FIRST FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ACTUALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY THAN TODAY...BUT WE WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING
SHOT OF DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RE-ENFORCING COLDER AIR MOVES IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY EVENING MODELS ARE INDICATING AN
INCREASE IN VORTICITY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...
BUT WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WE
WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND ONLY TO RE-
ENFORCE THE DRY AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FRONT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THAT COULD BRING SOME RAIN BUT REMAINS OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROF WILL PASS THRU THE AREA...PRODUCING SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  73  44  69  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    49  74  45  69  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  50  75  46  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  50  77  48  72  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      51  75  48  71  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      53  76  49  70  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  52  80  48  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        51  80  49  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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