Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 251603
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1103 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOME LOCATIONS TODAY
WILL HAVE A DIURNAL RANGE OF ALMOST 40 DEGREES COMPARING LOWS AT
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...BUT WILL ONLY SPREAD A FEW SCATTERED
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
EAST TO THE LOWER 80S WEST. THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK
WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL PRODUCE NORTH WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

58/ROSE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 346 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW
SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING 80F AS A STRONG 500MB RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD
FROM TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND INTO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 80S AREA-WIDE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST BY TUESDAY TO CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO A NARROW ZONE NEAR THE FRONT
WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY
AS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT EXITS INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. BY
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA WITH 30-40 POPS. WILL KEEP
20 POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A THE FRONT PAUSES
AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...INDICATING THE FRONT WILL BE SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. PERHAPS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON COULD BE ON THE WAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     77  49  82  51  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    77  49  82  52  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  78  53  83  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  80  53  84  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      77  54  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      77  53  81  56  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  79  53  84  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        78  51  83  54  85 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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