Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 222349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
549 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

For 00Z Aviation.



A longwave upper trough remains positioned over the eastern half
of the country while a shortwave trough is swinging east across
the southeast today. At the surface, an expansive high pressure
center was analyzed across southeast Kansas while surface low
pressure was analyzed in the central Gulf of Mexico west of the
central FLorida peninsula. This pressure gradient is helping to
reinforce the cool air advection regime and permitting drier air
to filter into the area this afternoon with generally north winds.

Fair skies are expected tonight with mostly high level clouds
expected to persist across our southeast counties. For most of our
northern and central counties, tonight will be a colder night with
lows ranging form the upper 20s northwest to the mid 40s
southeast. Winds are not expected to go calm overnight which will
inhibit ideal radiational cooling, but colder readings tomorrow
morning are expected from areas in the northwest and far northern
counties, especially in lower elevations and sheltered locations.

Few changes made to the extended portion of the forecast.
Relatively cool weather will continue on Thanksgiving Day. Fair
skies expected except across the southeast will cloud cover will
be thicker and there remains potential for a few showers. Lows tomorrow
night not as cold though freezing temperatures will still be
possible northwest and far north, especially in the colder valley
locations. Dry conditions are expected on Friday and into the
weekend despite another cold front arriving late Saturday in dry
fashion. Temperatures will moderate ahead of the front followed by
a potential return to freezing temperatures north on Monday


Thanksgiving Day through Tuesday.

An elongated upper-level trough is expected to extend from the
Ohio Valley southward over Alabama and the Gulf of Mexico on
Thanksgiving Day. At the surface, an area of broad and weak low
pressure should be located across the eastern Gulf of Mexico with
cool high pressure to the northwest. Rain associated with the low
pressure system will affect the Florida Panhandle, South Georgia,
and possibly extreme Southeast Alabama. The forecast for our
coverage area currently remains dry for Thanksgiving Day, but a
few stray showers could sneak into our far southeast counties.
Behind this system, rain-free conditions will prevail on Friday.

Northwest flow aloft will bring a dry cold front our way on
Saturday into Saturday night. Temperatures should be noticeably
cooler on Sunday with highs 5-8 degrees cooler than Saturday.
Widespread low to mid 30s are expected for morning lows on Monday
as high pressure moves into the region. A warming trend should
begin on Monday afternoon and continue into Tuesday as higher
heights move into the region.



00Z TAF Discussion.

Will continue the trend of some MVFR ceilings moving into eastern
areas around sunrise. Surface winds remain northerly around 6kts.

A surface low in the Gulf of Mexico will deepen and move across
the Florida Peninsula Thursday. An inverted trough forms on the
northern side of this feature in Georgia and moved toward Central
Alabama. All models show a pool of low level moisture developing
over Georgia and moving our way. The global models have some
moisture intrusion into southeast areas but not overly
impressive. The Hi-Res models and MOS cousins are in much more in
agreement that these clouds will spread into the area. Therefore,
held onto the mention of these clouds moving into areas near
ANB/TOI/MGM around 12z. It appears that this moisture will be
limited in depth and should mix out in the afternoon. Will re-
evaluate this moisture and cloud development for the later
evening issuance. Fog should not be an issue overnight as winds
remain 4-5kts and surface dew point depressions a few degrees.




The forecast features dry conditions and near normal temperatures
through the weekend and into early next week. There are no fire
weather concerns at this time.


Gadsden     31  60  35  62  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Anniston    35  62  38  63  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  34  60  39  64  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  32  60  36  64  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Calera      34  61  38  63  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Auburn      42  61  42  63  45 /  10  10  10  10  10
Montgomery  38  63  41  65  44 /   0  10   0   0   0
Troy        43  64  42  65  44 /  10  10  10  10  10




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