Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 221945
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
245 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED TO THE SOUTH AND THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL USHER
IN THE BEGINNING OF FALL AT 929 PM CDT. LOW TO MID 50S CAN BE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. OUR NORMALLY COOLER
SPOTS WITH EVEN DROP INTO THE 40S. THE DRY AIRMASS REMAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE O THE
AREA FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH JUST AFTERNOON ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY...BUT WILL AGAIN LIMIT IT OT THE SOUTHEAST
WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL TRY TO ADVECT.

MOISTURE REALLY BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF. MODELS ARE STILL
PRETTY GOOD WITH THE OVERALL TIMING AND AGREE AT THIS POINT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHERLY AND SOMEWHAT GUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
ONLY CONCERNS FOR VERY BRIEF IMPACTS TO CIGS AND VIS WILL BE
NEAR KTOI THROUGH 19Z WHERE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL SITES.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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