Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 182010
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
310 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE MASS OF RAIN HAS MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IS
NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST TO OUR WEST...WITH A SURFACE LOW JUST
OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ERODED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...GUIDANCE IS ALL IN AGREEMENT OF AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF RAIN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR AS THE CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS ADDITIONAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING...HOWEVER
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WILL
FILTER IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BEFORE EXITING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH...SO WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF
THE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AVIATION IMPACTS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE GREATER IMPACTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TAFS. THE RAIN SHIELD HAS ERODED A BIT ON THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SIDE...WHICH HAS LET VISIBILITIES IMPROVE. THERE WERE ALSO
SOME BREAKS IN THE LOWER CEILINGS AT BHM AND EET AS WELL. AT MGM
AND TOI...THE RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

COMPUTER MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TAPER OFF/ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. WE ARE GETTING
CONFLICTING SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS ON WHETHER THE LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO IMPROVE AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT. IN
EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW REGIMES SUCH AS THIS...WE
TYPICALLY HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING RID OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. I`VE
THEREFORE GONE WITH THE MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST OF MVFR
CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT. IN FACT...IT
WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME IF SOME IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPED AT
BHM...EET...ANB...MGM...OR TOI.

SUNRISE SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY BRING SLOW IMPROVEMENT...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM SHIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD.

/61/

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  70  51  76  51 /  50  10  10   0  10
ANNISTON    49  68  51  76  51 /  60  20  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  50  72  52  76  53 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  50  75  51  78  53 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      50  71  52  76  53 /  20  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      47  63  49  73  52 /  90  20  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  51  70  53  78  54 /  50  10   0   0  10
TROY        50  66  51  76  53 /  60  20  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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