Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 230236
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
936 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOW THAT THE HEAT OF THE DAY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WILL
FOCUS ON THE WORD OF THE DAY FOR SATURDAY...HOT. UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102 TO 108
DEGREES. SHOWERS TOMORROW WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN MUCH LIKE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE MOISTURE RETURN IF ONE AREA WAS
PREFERRED IT WOULD BE THE NORTHEAST AS A BACKDOOR ENTRANCE OF
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE BEST MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR MORE COVERAGE THAN FORECAST BASED ON
TEMPERATURES AND BOUNDARIES IN PLACE. UPDATES FOR THE NIGHT HAVE
BEEN SENT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BIG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY VFR
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...THERE`S AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF SOME HAZE OR LIGHT FOG BRIEFLY RESTRICTING VISIBILITY DOWN TO
4 OR 5 MILES BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. BUT OTHER THAN AT TROY...I
THINK THOSE CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW. SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

THE MAIN IMPACT THIS WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE THE
HEAT. AS OF 2 PM...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ALREADY AT 105 IN THE
MONTGOMERY AREA AND IN EUFAULA WITH VALUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA GENERALLY IN THE 100-105 RANGE. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN LIMITED TO
TO THE LACK OF A LIFTING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 7 PM. DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS AFTER 7PM
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

EXPECT TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT HOTTER THAN TODAY. MODELS INDICATE
THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 22 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH IS OVER
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST. THEREFORE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. EXPECT TOMORROW WILL BE THE
BEST DAY FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO HIT THE CENTURY MARK. AS THE LAST
FORECAST DISCUSSION STATED...IT HAS BEEN SOMETIME SINCE ANY OF THE
CLIMATE SITES HAVE BEEN OVER 100. PW VALUES FOR TOMORROW ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. IN ADDITION...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A BIT OF A CAP WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE...HAVE WENT
AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE BIG NEWS WILL BE THE HEAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING FROM 105-108 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THERE ARE
SEVERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED FOR THIS WEEKEND AND PLEASE TAKE
THE NECESSARY HEAT PRECAUTIONS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS SET UP WILL BRING IN A
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR TO EAST ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A MOISTURE GRADIENT
AS THE WEDGE MOVES IN ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EAST WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S WHERE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN HIGH AS THE PATTERN REMAINS HEAVILY
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF OVER 105. THEREFORE...A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 FOR SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE STATE ALONG THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO
AROUND 40 PERCENT. DUE TO THE INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS MOISTURE BOUNDARY
TRAVERSE THE STATE. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...MUCH DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
HAVE WENT NEAR CLIMO POPS IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE MODEL
DISCREPANCY.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  98  72  93  71 /  10  10  10  50  40
ANNISTON    72  98  73  94  71 /  10  10  10  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  74  98  75  96  73 /  10  10  10  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  73  99  73  99  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
CALERA      74  98  74  97  73 /  10  10  10  30  30
AUBURN      75  98  75  94  72 /  10  10  10  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75 100  75  98  75 /  10  10  10  20  30
TROY        73  98  73  97  73 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA...BIBB...CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...MARION...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...
PICKENS...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BARBOUR...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...
ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.