Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 030451
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1151 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER ANOTHER HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING LATE THIS EVENING. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ONCE
AGAIN...WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS IN GEORGIA HAVE
TRIGGERED VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THEN COME TO AN END
TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DEWPOINTS AT THIS HOUR ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH MIXING
CONTINUING AT A FEW LOCATIONS AND DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AT OTHERS. THEREFORE...A FEW 50S DEWPOINTS REMAIN BUT 60S ARE THE
MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
ALSO...THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA THIS EVENING WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS PRESENT FOR TROY,
EUFAULA, AND PHENIX CITY. DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS RETURN ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH DRY AIR AND SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN. EVENING UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAIN VIRTUALLY THE SAME THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...A VFR FORECAST. A FEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WERE STILL ROTATING WESTWARD NEAR TOI...WITH ONE ROGUE
SHOWER TO THE NORTHEAST OF TOI/MGM. CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE AT
THE TERMINAL WAS EVEN LOWER THIS TIME OUT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
NO MENTION. OTHERWISE ...FEW-SCT CUMULUS NEAR THESE OUTFLOWS
MGM/TOI. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT ARE SIGNIFICANT. WINDS WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...FROM NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL
BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 257 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE MID 90S TODAY. LOOKING AT THE
1000-850MB THICKNESSES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED. WILL MAINTAIN THE INCREASED POPS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER POPS.

GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE ON THURSDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED STORMS. BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND
30KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  95  67  96  71 /   0  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    66  95  68  96  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  69  95  72  98  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  97  71  99  74 /   0  10   0  10  10
CALERA      67  94  67  95  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      71  93  72  95  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  71  97  71  98  74 /  10  10   0  10  10
TROY        69  96  71  96  73 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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