Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 022342
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE CONVECTION ACROSS MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST
ALABAMA AND THE ACTIVITY HAS ALSO BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY
ONCE IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHAT COVERAGE OF
RAIN WILL BE AROUND BY EARLY EVENING...BUT KEPT A CHANCE FOR
AREAS WEST OF I-65 AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF I-65. EXPECT MOST OF
THE RAIN TO BE GONE BY 9PM THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
THERE WILL BE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN EACH
DAY...BUT DIFFICULT TO SCALE THESE CHANGES DOWN TO THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA TO FORECAST DAILY RAIN CHANCES. SOMETIMES IT SEEMS
THE BEST WAY TO DETERMINE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IS TO LOOK AT MODEL
700-500MB MEAN MOISTURE AND WIND PROJECTIONS. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES SHIFTING TO AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20 ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROF PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF ALABAMA...SO CARRIED SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
WESTWARD AND DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS BACK ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA.
ON FRIDAY A POCKET OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...AND CARRIED THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN AN
UPPER TROF DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT INTO
NORTH ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EVEN THOUGH THERE MIGHT BE A
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20 ON SUNDAY AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER SUNDAY
AND JUST KEPT LOW END RAIN CHANCES IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING...A
TREND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH DAYBREAK. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS CUMULUS DEVELOPS...LEADING TO A RELATIVELY
ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAIN CHANCES
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A BROAD-BRUSHED VCTS FOR ALL SITES
BEGINNING AT 17Z.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/87




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