Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 262121
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
421 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATCHING CONVECTION FIRE IN SW PORTION OF CWA AHEAD OF FRONT.
MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG SUPPORT STORMS POSSIBLY STRONG
BUT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LACK OF STRONG SFC
FORCING IN THIS AREA...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS TO EXCEED SVR
THRESHOLDS. PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL TO THE WEST AND WHILE
ISOLD SHOWERS TRIED ALL DAY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...LIMITED
INSTABILITY INHIBITING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF CWA AFTER 5AM FRIDAY...TAKING CHC FOR CONVECTION WITH IT.

MUCH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT. COULD SEE LIGHT FREEZE
EVENT SAT MORNING. WILL BE CONSIDERING FREEZE WATCH TONIGHT...FOR
NOW HAVE LEFT OUT.

OTHER THAN ADDITIONAL CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY...NEXT CHC FOR
RAIN BEGINS SUN NIGHT/MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN IN
NW FLOW. GFS/ECMWF ALSO INDICATE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH ONE
WAVE FOR WED AND ANOTHER ONE FRIDAY. IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF EITHER ONE OF THESE...AS 12Z GFS HINTS AT...COULD
SEE FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR SVR STORMS. ALWAYS A CONCERN THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CIGS HAVE IMPROVED BUT STILL LINGER ON THE VFR/MVFR LINE FOR ALL
SITES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITATION WORKING INTO THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF. WENT
WITH VCTS AFTER 22Z WEST AND THEN MOVED THAT FURTHER EAST. WENT
WITH PREDOMINATE SHOWERS AFTER 00Z NORTH AND 01Z SOUTH. CIGS THEN
DROP TO MVFR...AND POTENTIALLY BRIEF IFR AFTER 7Z. CLEARING
FINALLY BY 14 TO 16Z FRIDAY.

16


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     42  54  33  50  31 /  70  10  10  10  20
ANNISTON    44  56  33  51  31 /  70  10  10  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  42  56  35  52  34 /  70  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  43  59  38  55  37 /  70  10  10  20  20
CALERA      44  56  37  53  35 /  70  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      48  58  37  54  35 /  70  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  49  61  39  60  38 /  60  10  10  10  20
TROY        49  61  39  59  39 /  60  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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