Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 040332
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1032 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW DRIER LOCATIONS SHOWING UP HERE AND THERE...WITH 60S BEING
REPORTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT
LOWS SLIGHTLY AND ADDED A BIT MORE VARIABILITY DUE TO THE RANGE IN
SURFACE DEW POINTS. REALLY DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH CHANCE
OF ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN OVERNIGHT SO WILL LEFT MENTION OUT.
UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD AND DRY AIR ALOFT HAS MOVED IN.
THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE THIS EVENING WAS TO ADD SOME MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WILL MONITOR FOR GREATER
RESTRICTIONS...BUT GENERAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE INTO THE 2-3 MILE
RANGE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT
THIS TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BUT HAVE
REMAINED SCATTERED. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
OUTFLOWS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING. KEPT MENTION
IN AT MGM/TOI. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE
FOR MOST TERMINALS. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND DID NOT
MENTION ANY CEILINGS OR RAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
WEST.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD
VALUES. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...MAINLY THE NORTHWEST AND THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS
HOUR. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THRU
00Z WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY FRIDAY AS
IT MERGES WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE LOWER FOR OUR AREA ON FRIDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER/STORM IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER.

19

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANY REMAINING CONVECTION FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY
SUNSET AND EXPECT COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
TIME. BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WESTWARD ON SATURDAY. 1000-500 MB RH AND PW VALUES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE E/SE.  HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE IN THE EAST...WITH DRIER AIR LIKELY KEEPING THE FAR
NORTHWEST DRY. CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING A
PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST BUT VARYING ON THE
STRENGTH. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST AND SOUTH AGAIN. WITHOUT ANY
APPARENT LOW-LEVEL FOCUS...EXPECT STORMS TO BE SCATTERED WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES DURING PEAK HEATING.

THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD NEXT WEEK
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH THE MAIN JET STREAM REMAINING FAR
TO THE NORTH. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR CHANCES OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...MODULATED BY
THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 70.

32/DAVIS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  91  69  90  69 /  10  20  10  40  20
ANNISTON    68  92  71  90  70 /  10  20  10  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  73  93  73  91  71 /  10  10  10  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  94  73  94  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
CALERA      70  92  72  90  71 /  10  20  10  30  20
AUBURN      71  91  72  89  70 /  10  20  10  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  95  73  94  72 /  10  20  10  40  20
TROY        70  94  71  93  70 /  10  20  10  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.