Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
000
AXUS74 KHUN 301540
DGTHUN
ALC033-043-049-059-071-077-079-083-089-095-103-TNC051-103-127-021545-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1040 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSEN AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA...

SYNOPSIS:
ACCORDING TO THE DROUGHT MONITOR VALID TUESDAY...SEPTEMBER 27TH
2016...DEGRADATIONS IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCURRED ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA SOME DEGRADATION OF DROUGHT OCCURRED MAINLY IN
PORTIONS OF DEKALB COUNTY...WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
SINCE LAST WEEK IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE AREA OF EXTREME
DROUGHT /D3/ EXPANDED A LITTLE FURTHER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF DEKALB COUNTY...WITH MOST OF JACKSON COUNTY REMAINING IN EXTREME
DROUGHT. A VERY SMALL AREA OF EXTREME DROUGHT ALSO CONTINUES FOR
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY (TN). SO...A PORTION OF EVERY COUNTY IN
THE HUNTSVILLE COUNTY WARNING AND FORECAST AREA IS NOW UNDER A
MINIMUM OF MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS...BUT DROUGHT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN WORST IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS:
STATE AND LOCAL DECLARATIONS: THE MOST RECENT DECLARATION FROM THE
ALABAMA DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND COMMUNITY AFFAIRS (ADECA) OFFICE
OF WATER RESOURCES INDICATES THAT ALL ALABAMA COUNTIES IN THE
HUNTSVILLE COUNTY WARNING AND FORECAST AREA ARE IN A `DROUGHT
WARNING`. THIS IS A UPGRADE FROM THE DROUGHT WATCH WHICH WAS IN
PLACE RECENTLY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS:
PER THE LATEST CROP AND PROGRESS CONDITION REPORT FROM THE USDA
NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE...FARM SERVICE AGENCIES
(FSA) IN LIMESTONE AND COLBERT COUNTIES REPORTED THAT VERY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED. THE COLBERT COUNTY FSA REPORTS THAT DOUBLE
CROPPED SOYBEANS ARE DROPPING LEAVES AND DEFOLIATING AS A RESULT OF
THE DROUGHT STRESS...WHILE THE LIMESTONE COUNTY FSA REPORTS STRESS TO
PASTURES. THE MARSHALL COUNTY FSA IN PERSONAL COMMUNICATION REPORTED
THAT ALL PRODUCERS HAVE LOST A BIG PART OF THE SUMMER GRAZING AND
HARVESTED ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF HAY...WHILE GROUND CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY TOO DRY AND HARD FOR PLANTING COOL SEASON GRASSES FOR
FORAGING. THE FSA IN FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE REPORTED THAT
PRODUCERS IN THE DRIEST PARTS OF THE COUNTY ARE CONTINUING TO FEED
HAY TO LIVESTOCK TO SUPPLEMENT PASTURES.

COUNTIES IN EXTREME DROUGHT /D3/ FOR ANY PORTION OF TIME
AUTOMATICALLY QUALIFY FOR U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA)
PRIMARY NATURAL DISASTER STATUS. AS OF SEPTEMBER 28TH...THE USDA HAD
OFFICIALLY DESIGNATED COLBERT...DEKALB...FRANKLIN (AL)...JACKSON...
MADISON...MARSHALL...MORGAN...LAWRENCE...AND LIMESTONE COUNTIES AS
PRIMARY NATURAL DISASTER AREAS DUE TO DAMAGES AND LOSSES CAUSED BY
THE RECENT DROUGHT. IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...FRANKLIN...LINCOLN
AND MOORE COUNTIES ARE ALSO INCLUDED. PER THE USDA...THE CONTIGUOUS
COUNTIES OF CULLMAN AND LAUDERDALE COUNTIES ARE ALSO INCLUDED IN THE
DISASTER DECLARATION. ANY FURTHER NATURAL DISASTER DECLARATIONS
PERTAINING TO DROUGHT WILL BE UPDATED IN THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT
ISSUANCE NEXT WEEK.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS:
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION FIRE ALERTS OR
DROUGHT EMERGENCIES ISSUED. STATE FORESTER GREG PATE IS STILL URGING
EVERYONE TO USE ALL NECESSARY SAFETY PRECAUTIONS WHEN DOING ANY TYPE
OF OUTDOOR BURNING. TO OBTAIN A BURN PERMIT...CONTACT THE ALABAMA
FORESTRY COMMISSION DISPATCH CENTER FOR YOUR COUNTY. LOCAL COUNTY
AND CITY LAWS MAY RESTRICT OUTDOOR BURNING HOWEVER...SO BURNERS ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTACTING THEIR LOCAL GOVERNMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

THE TENNESSEE DIVISION OF FORESTRY HAS NO CURRENT BURN RESTRICTIONS
IN PLACE AND BURN PERMITS ARE CURRENTLY NOT REQUIRED BY THE
DIVISION. HOWEVER...BURNERS ARE URGED TO CHECK FOR ANY LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS PRIOR TO CONDUCTING BURNING ACTIVITY.

THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) AVAILABLE FROM THE U.S. FOREST
SERVICE WILDLAND FIRE ASSESSMENT SYSTEM INDICATES VALUES NOW IN
EXCESS OF 700 ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
ALABAMA...WITH VALUES BETWEEN 600 AND 700 ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. KBDI VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 600 ARE OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH MORE SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND WITH INCREASED WILDFIRE OCCURRENCE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY:
OVER THE LAST WEEK...RAINFALL WAS BELOW NORMAL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
AREA...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
OR NO RAINFALL. SPOTTY LOCATIONS FROM CULLMAN COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO
DEKALB COUNTY RECEIVED AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH AS A FRONT CROSSED
THE AREA ON THE 26TH. NORMAL WEEKLY RAINFALL DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF SEPTEMBER IS A LITTLE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE LAST WEEK HAVE AVERAGED MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 90S DURING
THE AFTERNOONS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 99 DEGREES AT BOTH
HUNTSVILLE AND MUSCLE SHOALS ON THE 25TH. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS HAVE
COOLED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

DURING THE SPRING AND INTO SUMMER /MARCH THROUGH LATE SEPTEMBER/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH HAS HELPED LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTENANCE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS. AT
HUNTSVILLE...THIS PERIOD NOW RANKS AS THE WARMEST ON RECORD. AT
SCOTTSBORO...THE SAME PERIOD IS THE 2ND WARMEST ON RECORD...WHILE
THE SPRING AND SUMMER PERIOD RANKS THIRD WARMEST AT MUSCLE SHOALS.

ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA) RECEIVED
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL DURING THE MONTHS OF JULY AND AUGUST...DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN. MOST AREAS ARE AROUND TWO TO THREE
INCHES OF RAINFALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS. OVER THE LAST
SIX MONTHS...MANY LOCATIONS HAVE CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL
DEFICITS...RANGING FROM AROUND FOUR INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA...TO NEARLY 13 INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
NORTHEAST. AT SCOTTSBORO...THE PRECIPITATION DEFICIT OVER THE LAST
SIX MONTHS (AS OF SEPTEMBER 30TH) WAS 12.69 INCHES. NORMAL RAINFALL
DURING THE PERIOD IS JUST OVER 26 INCHES...SO SCOTTSBORO IS JUST
UNDER 50% OF THEIR NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THIS PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK:
GENERALLY MILD TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND SATURDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY
WARM...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR NEXT
WEEK. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE BELOW ONE HALF INCH THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE OUTLOOK FOR WEEK TWO /OCT 7TH - OCT 13TH/ FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER STRONGLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MODERATELY FAVORS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE LATEST SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID FROM SEPTEMBER 15TH TO
DECEMBER 31ST INDICATES THAT DROUGHT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN AREAS
CURRENTLY UNDER A DROUGHT DESIGNATION...AND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN
AREAS WITHOUT A DROUGHT DESIGNATION. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
AREA RIVER AND CREEK STREAMFLOWS HAVE DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST
SEVEN DAYS. FOLLOWING ARE SEVEN-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW PERCENTILE
STATISTICS FOR SITES WITH VERY LOW STREAMFLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR:

CYPRESS CREEK NEAR FLORENCE: 4TH PERCENTILE
PAINT ROCK RIVER AT WOODVILLE: 4TH PERCENTILE
BIG WILLS CREEK AT FORT PAYNE: 10TH PERCENTILE
ELK RIVER AT PROSPECT TENNESSEE: 7TH PERCENTILE
SHOAL CREEK AT IRON CITY TENNESSEE: 10TH PERCENTILE
LIMESTONE CREEK NEAR ATHENS: 13TH PERCENTILE
SOUTH SAUTY CREEK NEAR RAINSVILLE: 16TH PERCENTILE
FLINT RIVER NEAR BROWNSBORO: 22ND PERCENTILE

LAKE LEVELS HAVE LARGELY BEEN UNAFFECTED BY THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
THIS YEAR. LAKES WITHIN THE HEAVILY REGULATED TENNESSEE RIVER SYSTEM
ARE OPERATING WITHIN NORMAL POOL LEVELS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
LITTLE BEAR CREEK...WHICH IS OPERATING SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LOW NOTCH
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALABAMA POWER REPORTS THAT DRY CONDITIONS ARE
HAVING AN IMPACT ON SOME LAKE LEVELS UNDER THEIR CONTROL...INCLUDING
LEWIS SMITH LAKE. THE LAKE IS OPERATING BELOW ITS NORMAL GUIDE CURVE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE LATEST DAILY SOIL
MOISTURE RANKINGS AS OF SEPTEMBER 29TH CONTINUES TO INDICATE
ABNORMALLY LOW SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. SOIL
MOISTURE RANKING PERCENTILES ARE STILL LOWEST OVER NORTHEASTERN
ALABAMA (1ST TO 5TH PERCENTILE)...RANGING TO NEAR THE 20TH PERCENTILE
OVER NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY GROUNDWATER WELL SITE IN CULLMAN COUNTY
SHOWS THAT GROUNDWATER LEVELS FELL BELOW THE DAILY MEDIAN VALUE
DURING THE MARCH TO LATE APRIL PERIOD AND HAVE SINCE REMAINED BELOW
AVERAGE SINCE THAT TIME. WATER LEVELS HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL AT THE
SITE SINCE EARLY SEPTEMBER. GROUNDWATER LEVELS AT THE MONITORING
SITE IN LAWRENCE COUNTY HAVE CONTINUED TO DECLINE MARKEDLY SINCE LATE
AUGUST...WITH GROUNDWATER DEPTHS NOW AROUND FIVE FEET BELOW THE
MEDIAN STATISTIC FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SOIL MOISTURE AND STREAMFLOWS IS FOR CONTINUED
DEGRADATION ESPECIALLY BEGINNING AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL WITH LITTLE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE:
THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED NEXT THURSDAY...OCTOBER 6TH.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
/USE LOWER CASE/

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR WEB PAGE...HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

FOR INFORMATION ABOUT ALABAMA DROUGHT DECLARATIONS...VISIT
HTTP://WWW.ADECA.ALABAMA.GOV/DIVISIONS/OWR/PAGES/DEFAULT.ASPX

FOR INFORMATION FROM THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION...VISIT
HTTP://FORESTRY.ALABAMA.GOV/

RADAR ESTIMATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM...
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP

STREAMFLOWS ARE OBTAINED FROM THE USGS AT...
HTTP://WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV/INDEX.PHP

LAKE LEVELS FOR THE TENNESSEE RIVER LAKES CAN BE OBTAINED FROM
HTTP://WWW.TVA.COM/LAKEINFO/

USGS GROUNDWATER WELL SITE INFORMATION FOR ALABAMA...
HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/AL/NWIS/CURRENT/?TYPE=GW&GROUP_KEY=COUNTY_CD


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

SOME DATA USED IN THIS STATEMENT WERE PROVIDED BY THE U.S.
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY...AND THE STATES OF ALABAMA AND
TENNESSEE.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ON THE DROUGHT...CONTACT:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE
320A SPARKMAN DRIVE
HUNTSVILLE AL 35805
PHONE: 256-890-8503
SR-HUN.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.