Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 312044
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
344 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The weak upper shortwave that moved through the Midsouth earlier
is now to the east and is dissipating. Clouds ended up decreasing
from west to east during the afternoon. A few thunderstorms have
developed behind the shortwave, but most activity is occurring
farther to the south where fewer clouds were present allowing for
more instability.

A well defined upper low over the southwestern US is providing a
moist southwesterly flow aloft over Texas and lower Mississippi
valley. Several weak shortwaves along this flow pattern will keep
higher than normal chances of showers and thunderstorms in place
through Saturday. There may be enough instability to trigger a few
strong thunderstorms with gusty winds during the day. The chance
of showers and thunderstorms will increase areawide by Saturday as
the upper low moves across the lower Mississippi valley and a cold
front approaches from the northwest.

A cold front will move through the region Saturday night into
Sunday. This front will bring an end to the chance of showers and
thunderstorms through the rest of the forecast period into early
next week as a less humid airmass advects into the area from the
northwest and a weak surface high builds into the region.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF Set.

VFR Conditions generally expected over the next 24 hours. Can/t
rule out some patchy fog at KTUP during the overnight hours that
may temporarily reduce VSBYS to MVFR. Otherwise, low confidence
with regards to timing of shower and thunderstorm development over
the next 24 hours. Kept vicinity wording at KJBR and KMEM for this
afternoon/evening in case some diurnal convection develops.
Otherwise, there may be a chance around or just after sunrise as
convection that develops over the Southern Plains this evening
moves westward. Winds will be light and variable through the
period.

KRM

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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