Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMEG 092324
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
524 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT BY THURSDAY...LEAVING LOWER AMPLITUDE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. AREA TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE 09/12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HINT AT BRIEF LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER JET STREAK. THIS WOULD
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHWEST TN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS ON TRACK FOR A FRIDAY
EVENING PASSAGE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. THE ECMWF HAS EDGED CLOSER
TO RECENT GFS SOLUTIONS...SHOWING A LESS DIRECT AND LASTING INTRUSION
OF ARCTIC AIR. BOTH MODELS NOW SHOW THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS
ALLOWS LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC PRESSURE RIDGE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL AID LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED ARCTIC FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. AN
INVERTED PRESSURE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH WITH ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE TROF.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE RIDGE FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY RETURN WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDSOUTH.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AT ALL SITES THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 6-10 KT
RANGE FOR THE PERIOD...BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.