Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 231150
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
650 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

At 3 AM CDT around the Mid-South, showers are ongoing across
portions of north Mississippi and areas of west Tennessee nearest
the Tennessee River. The latest H5 analysis depicts an upper ridge
off the Atlantic seaboard with an upper low centered over
Minnesota and associated trough extending southwestward through
the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. This places the local region
under southwest flow aloft, with several weak impulses embedded
in the flow responsible for the shower activity this morning.

Most of the shower activity will remain secluded to northeast
Mississippi through the morning hours as the shortwave departs to
the east. The next wave begins to move into the western areas this
afternoon, bringing at least a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms to the entire region, blanketed beneath cloudy
skies, and keeping temperatures in the 70s. A better chance for
showers and storms will exist overnight as the upper low migrates
to central Iowa and the trough axis centers over the local region
with overnight lows in the 50s.

The upper low begins to move over the region on Wednesday, with
the best chances for showers and thunderstorms being in the
morning as the trough axis migrates east out of the area. By the
afternoon the low becomes centered just over the region,
inhibiting highs from reaching the 70s in most locales.

A warming trend begins on Thursday as an upper ridge moves in
behind the departed upper low with dry conditions returning along
with sunshine. The ridge will dominate conditions locally through
the end of the week with plenty of sun and temperatures in the
70s on Thursday warming into the mid 80s for Friday.

A warm front surges north across the region in advance of the next
storm system by late Friday, with chances for showers and
thunderstorms returning for the holiday weekend as the region
again becomes entrenched beneath southwest flow aloft. The best
chance for showers and storms currently looks to be on Sunday with
models dropping a front through the region. A few storms could be
strong to severe, with model soundings indicating abundant
instability, but have held off on including this wording in the
HWO just yet as uncertainty still exists between models on
intensity and timing.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...12z TAFs

VFR cigs and vsbys should prevail today at KMEM, KMKL, and KJBR.
IFR cigs have developed north into KTUP early this morning and
should persist for a few hours before mixing out to VFR by mid
morning. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible today with
even a few thunderstorms possible later this afternoon and
evening.

The greatest potential for showers and a few thunderstorms will be
from later this evening through the overnight hours. Mainly VFR
conditions should prevail although some MVFR cigs cannot be ruled
out at KMEM, KJBR, and KMKL. Late tonight through sunrise
Wednesday, low stratus with IFR cigs should redevelop at KTUP.

Light west northwest winds today should increase later this
evening from the northwest behind a cold front.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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