Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 012350 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
650 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 634 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...

FORECAST UPDATED TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING AS SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT WAS MAINLY SECLUDED TO EASTERN ARKANSAS HAS DIMINISHED.

ZDM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AS OF 3PM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING
NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND COUNTIES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT WAS OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED
EAST ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THESE
TYPE OF STORMS. TEMPERATURES WERE ON TRACK TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT CLOUD COVERAGE HAS RESTRICTED READINGS
TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE AREAS NEAR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND
WARM...MOIST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS.
THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70 DEGREES AND CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. EVEN
THOUGH SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF OF THE FRONT...THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIE WITHIN A SQUALL LINE THAT
FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHHEEL... NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... AND
EXTREME WEST TENNESSEE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH
THE WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 13K FEET AND THE -20 HEIGHTS AT NEAR 25K
FEET. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING
WILL BE UNLIKELY DUE TO THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM.

SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AND COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY... SATURDAY... AND
SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE AT RAINFALL BUT
MODELS STILL HAVEN/T COME INTO AGREEMENT ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (02/00Z-03/00Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 02/13Z AND
02Z/17Z ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. AFTER 02Z/17Z CEILINGS
LIFTING TO VFR BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.

WINDS TONIGHT SE 3-6 KTS. WINDS THURSDAY S-SW INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 22 KTS AT KJBR.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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