Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 301150
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
650 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE
MID 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO KJBR AND
KMEM BY 31/12Z. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






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