Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 240525
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1125 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...
CHANGED TONIGHTS SKY...POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS.

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THAT JUST ABOUT ALL THE RAIN HAS LEFT THE
AREA. SOME AREAS NORTHERN AREAS MIGHT STILL BE SEEING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. LOWERED POPS IN THE GRIDS AND DECREASED SKY
COVER IN THE GRIDS IN THE SOUTHERN MOST PART OF FORECAST AREA.
THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THIS EVENING.

WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH IN SOME PLACES THAT WILL LEAVE WIND
ADVISORY AS IS. THE WINDS IN MANY PLACES ARE GUSTING PERIODICALLY
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CURRENT GRADIENT IS WEAKER THAN
EXPECTED...HOWEVER...IT WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT TOWARD MORNING
AND WITH THE SUNRISE MORE MIXING WILL OCCUR. CURRENT WIND PROFILE
FROM MEMPHIS RADAR SHOWS THAT WINDS WITHIN 1000 FT OF THE GROUND
ARE ABOVE 30 MPH. TLSJR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

A WARM FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
THE FRONT IS ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM CLARKSDALE TO ABERDEEN
MISSISSIPPI. RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. A BREAK IN
THE RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND MUCH OF
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AREA ALSO OCCURRING
IN THIS HOLE. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD TONIGHT
AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE I-44
CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NORTHEAST ARKANSAS DUE TO BEING CLOSER
TO THE SFC LOW TRACK. WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP AROUND SUNSET. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD BACK AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AROUND
THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS SO OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG THE AR/MO AND KY/TN BORDERS.
ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS EARLY ON IN THE EVENING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE SFC LOW BUT STORMS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW STRONG TO SEVERE
LIMITS.

BIGGER STORY TONIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20-25 MPH WITH HIGH
GUSTS THIS EVENING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING. DIRECTION WILL CHANGE TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND
20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 6 PM THROUGH NOON ON
MONDAY FOR THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.

CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR ON MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. WITH THE CLOUDS AND STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS USHERING IN COLDER AIR...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO THE UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO SKIES CLEARING OUT...LIGHT WINDS...AND A
MOIST GROUND. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE
UPPER 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA DRY.
THANKSGIVING WILL BE SUNNY BUT COOL AGAIN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

BY THANKSGIVING NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST FINALLY
ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF INDICATE A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE MODELS
DIVERGE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO BEFORE STALLING OUT SO
HARD TO PINPOINT WHAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO EAST ARKANSAS...AND MAY IMPACT JBR
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL INCLUDE VCSH. OTHERWISE CRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT
TO MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SE TO THE SSW AT 10-12
KTS OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE MARKEDLY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS. SPEEDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW BY MIDDAY. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.

30

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
     MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-
     TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$


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