Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 240516
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1216 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
9PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH CALM WINDS PREVAILING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE... WERE LIFTING EAST AND
SHOULD EXIT THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST AR...MO AND IL WERE ASSOCIATED WITH
A MOISTURE AXIS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
RIDGE. 00Z NAM 925MB RH PROG SUGGESTS A FEW OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS
MAY MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST AR TOWARD MORNING.

MOST RECENT UPDATE CONTAINED ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD TRENDS. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES IN MOST PLACES...OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD COOL QUICKLY.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS
COLD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER WITH FEWER CLOUDS AROUND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. BY SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH SO
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOME ON SATURDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN START MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS A
RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT WILL STILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN.

BY TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND WEAKEN SOME
WEDNESDAY SO THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF
THE COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT MAY REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KMKL AND KJBR OVERNIGHT REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR.
ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT MVFR CIGS AROUND KJBR BETWEEN 15-18Z. LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








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