Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 240018 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
718 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN IL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MO
EARLY THIS EVENING. A VARIETY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS SPARKED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THIS MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTH
MS AT EARLY EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THESE STORMS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH HAS MARKEDLY STABILIZED ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND
NORTHWEST TN AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH MS
AND EAST CENTRAL AR BY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. LEFT IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED BUT WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN CASE THE ATMOSPHERE TRIES TO DESTABILIZE SOME AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. WILL UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AGAIN ONCE
THE STRONGER STORMS MOVE OUT OF NORTH MS AND WILL REMOVE THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 315 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDSOUTH. ONE MCS HAS MOVED ACROSS WRN KY/SE MO INTO THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NE AR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME REPORTS OF WIND
DAMAGE. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN EXTENDS
JUST SOUTH OF I-40 FROM SELMER NORTHEAST TOWARD LEXINGTON
INCLUDING JACKSON.

STORMS ARE FEEDING ON A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S...CAPES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF -7C TO -8C. WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG WITH
MID LEVEL AT ABOUT 30 KTS...BUT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZATION.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM ACROSS MO
BOOTHEEL AND MUCH OF EAST ARKANSAS. THE MCS OVER NE AR WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SSW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
MAINLY A WIND THREAT. ELSEWHERE EXPECT ISOLD-SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP
SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT AS
WELL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SLOW
MOVING STORMS.

TONIGHT...MCS WILL DEPART INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
AT THAT POINT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON THE WANE WITH A DIMINISHING
SEVERE THREAT. BY MIDNIGHT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-40 WITH A DRIER...COOLER AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AREAS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES.
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH IN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL BE LOW...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUMMER HEAT TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING 594 DM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. STILL THINK THE MEX IS TOO HOT
WITH ITS UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES
OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY
LAUNCH AN MCS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE MIDSOUTH SO KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN THROUGH THE AREA BY ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DRY AND COOL WEATHER FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

CONVECTION NEARLY OUT OF THE WAY AT ALL THE SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING NEAR TUP. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
START OFF VFR THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
AFTER PASSAGE MVFR CIGS/VIS IS LIKELY TO FORM AND THEN LINGER
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS. VFR EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN
THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
VEER NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 7-10 KTS AFTER SUNRISE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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