Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 271805
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
105 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1014 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

UPDATE...
Updated to increase late morning and afternoon rain chances.

DISCUSSION...

Light showers starting to form over northeast Mississippi late
this morning. Building cu in middle Tennessee and northern Alabama
suggests activity should become more scattered across the eastern
counties by early afternoon...so increased rain chances across
the east and north. Storm movement like yesterday will be from
the southeast.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

Warm and humid conditions to continue into early next week, under
a strong upper level height ridge.

For today, drier easterly midlevel flow will lower precipitable
water values to around 1.6 inches, down from 2 inches on Friday.
Where storms form, inverted-v moisture and thermal profiles suggest
some strong wind potential. Otherwise, dry with afternoon temps
around 3 degrees above normal and dewpoints in the 70s.

The upper level ridge center will gradually retrograde from the
Carolinas to the southern plains by midweek, as significant height
falls occur over the northeast United States. Weak northwest flow
aloft will prevail over the Midsouth by midweek, allowing a weak
backdoor cold frontal passage. Temperatures should cool to near
normal, accompanied by dewpoints cooling into the 60s. Not quite
autumn-like, but typical of early September.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

18z TAF Set

VFR conditions should prevail at all sites for much of the
forecast period. The exception will be during any convection and
also in late night/early morning fog...where vsbys could be
reduced to MVFR. Isolated convection will be possible at all sites
except KJBR...where dry conditions should prevail. Light and
variable winds will continue through the remainder of today and
tonight...outside of any storms.

Light east winds should develop by Sunday morning at 7 kts or
less. Scattered to broken mid level clouds can also be expected.

JLH

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$


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