Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 070334
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
934 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST BRINGING LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVER NIGHT INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTH AND
20S IN THE SOUTH. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATE PLANNED.
TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE
PLACE OVER THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES UP IN THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL TO THE MID 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC...LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. AN INVERTED SFC TROF
WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDSOUTH. AS A RESULT...RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE
RAIN REACHES WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM BRINGING RAIN ALL THE WAY
NORTH TO THE MO/AR BORDER. MEANWHILE...THE GFS KEEPS THE BULK OF
THE RAIN SOUTH OF MS/TN BORDER.

THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROF WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST
DURING THE BEGINNING PART OF THE WEEK PUSHING RAIN CHANCES EAST.
HOWEVER BY MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK...THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROF
MAY ACTUALLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO
THE MIDSOUTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THE WEEK AND SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S FROM THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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