Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 020142

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
842 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

Surface analysis as 0f 8:30 PM places a cold front just south of
the MEG CWA. Short term models agree on the Mid-South remaining
dry overnight. The only update to the overnight forecast was
increasing cloud coverage mainly along and west of the
Mississippi River due to left over cloud cover from a disturbance
that moved through Arkansas earlier and continues to move into
our area.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this afternoon places a weak cold
front from Huntingdon, Tennessee back through central Arkansas.
Showers and thunderstorms have developed along this boundary but
outside the forecast area. As of 2 pm CDT, temperatures across the
Mid-South range from the 80s north of I-40 behind the front and
lower 90s south.

Short term models indicate this weak front will continue to push
south of the forecast area this evening. At this time, the
potential for showers and thunderstorms will remain too low to
justify mention in the forecast at this time. This front is
expected to move back north late Saturday night into Sunday with
isolated showers and thunderstorms possible mainly north of I-40
during peak heating in the afternoon and early evening hours.

The best potential for showers and thunderstorms will arrive for
the Fourth of July as mid level heights weaken and a front drops
from the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Sufficient instability, moderately steep 700-500 mb layer
mid level lapse rates, and some convective organization suggest a
potential for a few strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms,
late Sunday night through Monday evening. At this time, it appears
the potential threats will be damaging winds along with localized
heavy rainfall. Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually
diminish as an upper level ridge over the Southern Plains builds
into the Lower Mississippi Valley towards late next week. This
will result in temperatures warming into the middle 90s.


00Z TAFs

VFR to prevail through the period, with light winds slowly veering
to the southeast by 12Z.

Short range models continue to indicate scattered showers north of
JBR after 12Z, rooted in an elevated layer and aided by weak
disturbance passing through MO. NAM Bufr soundings indicate weak
instability through early afternoon, with the upper disturbance
passing to the east thereafter.



.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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