Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 212121
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
321 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM
CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 40S TONIGHT
AND IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
MILDER AIR...RAIN CHANCES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE AS THIS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WRF/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE AND CONSEQUENTLY CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND CONSIDER MENTION
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IF LATER MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A
BETTER STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REMOVED THE RAIN
SHOWER/SNOW SHOWER MIX FROM THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON CHRISTMAS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS THE SLOWER AND WETTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BLENDED SOLUTIONS WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY TOWARDS LOWER POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME UNTIL LONG TERM MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

A MID CLOUD DECK AT JBR IS ERODING TO THE NORTH WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AFTER 06Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WINDS BY SUNRISE AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-10KT RANGE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...LIKELY STRENGTHENING A BIT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW.

JDS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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