Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 230821
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
321 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT-TERM REVOLVE AROUND PATCHY
FROST POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...

A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING WITH FAVORABLE LOCATIONS HAVING FALLEN INTO THE UPPER
30S. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE/EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI HAVE ONLY DROPPED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT THIS TIME.
HAVE BEEN WATCHING TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSELY AND WHILE
TEMPERATURES DROPPED QUICKLY...THEY HAVE REACHED THE DEWPOINT
WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER IN THE
ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. FAVORABLE LOW-LYING
AREAS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT H5 WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
TODAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. LOWERED HIGHS JUST
A BIT FOR TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 11-13C RANGE.
TIME-HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGEST THAT HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON OFFSETTING SOLAR HEATING TO SOME DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
THANKS TO A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN
THOUGH 850 FLOW WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY...A LARGE WARM PLUME
ORIGINATING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR THE LONG TERM...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL US ON TUESDAY. IT NOW SHOWS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW SHOULD YIELD DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH...EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK...STILL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH IS WHY POPS WEREN`T
INCREASED DRAMATICALLY. A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










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