Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 312324 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
624 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT THEN RETURN TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT AT SOME LOCATIONS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF/SHEAR AXIS NOTED TO THE WEST OF THE
FCST AREA TODAY...EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN INTO
TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TWO SHORTWAVE FEATURES ALONG
THIS AXIS...ONE OVER INDIANA AND THE OTHER SWIRLING OVER THE RIO
GRANDE AREA OF TEXAS. MODELS (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) ALL SEEM TO INITIALIZE
WELL WITH THESE FEATURES AND KEEP THIS TROF AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE
FCST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING TO THE EAST OF THE
FCST AREA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO CONTINUE OVER
INTERIOR ZONES THROUGH TOMORROW... EVEN THOUGH MID LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BE MOISTENING. WITH THE LACK OF ANY LARGER
SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH TUESDAY...AT LEAST NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE
FOR RAIN. AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOWER OR STORM COULD
BE POSSIBLE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...HOWEVER. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
LIGHT PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY
INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT. A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND MOST OF TUESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S INLAND...AND MID 70S COASTAL. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S COASTAL AND MID 90S INTERIOR. 12/DS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTO MID WEEK...GUIDANCE
DIVERGES IN HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SABINE RIVER.
ECMWF/GFS/NAM OPEN THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE GFS AND NAM MEANDERING IT
SOUTH A BIT TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEX. THE ECMWF WANDERS THE OPENING
SYSTEM EAST...TO OVER THE FA BY THURSDAY MORN. BOTH ABSORB THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. WITH THIS ABSORBING COMES A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR THE AREA FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN...EVEN WITH PRECIP H20 VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.8". THIS IS
ABOVE THE GFS/ECMWF BUT BELOW THE SEEMINGLY ALWAYS WET NAM. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN LOSES SOME OF ITS GRIP ON THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...WITH DE-AMPLIFICATION FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING OVER THE
NORTHERN END OF THE RIDGE. EVEN SO...TEMPS REMAIN A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL.

LONG TERM [THURSDAY ON]...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A STRONG UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THE FA COMES BETWEEN TWO
SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS SHIFTED OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID 90S DURING THE
DAY. WITH A SOUPY AIRMASS...TEMPS RAISE BACK INTO THE MID
90S...AND DAYTIME HEAT INDICES RISING BACK INTO THE 100-105 DEGREE
RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER ENERGY MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE
EAST EDGE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH...EVENTUALLY FORMING A WEAKLY
ORGANIZED SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
TO AROUND SEASONAL (SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA)
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDFLOW. PRIMARILY LIGHT EAST
TO NORTHEAST...BUT BECOMINGS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER THE MARINE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK.
12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  93  72  92  73 /  05  05  10  20  20
PENSACOLA   75  92  74  91  76 /  10  00  20  20  20
DESTIN      77  90  78  91  78 /  05  10  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   70  94  70  95  71 /  05  05  10  20  20
WAYNESBORO  70  94  70  94  72 /  05  05  05  20  10
CAMDEN      70  93  71  95  72 /  05  05  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   71  93  69  94  71 /  05  10  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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