Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 232356 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
556 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


00Z issuance...MVFR to VFR conditions through about 24.06z
followed by IFR to LIFR cigs and visibilities through about
24.12z followed by IFR to MVFR cigs and visibilities through
24.15z, then mostly VFR conditions through 25.00z. Winds will be
southeast at 8 to 12 knots through about 24.06z diminishing to 3
to 7 knots through 24.15z then increasing the 8 to 12 knots
through 25.00z. 32/ee


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...A cold front remains nearly
stationary just west of the Mississippi river this afternoon in a
broad southwest upper level flow pattern. Meanwhile, deep layer
ridging across the southeast continues to keep much of the region
dry with above normal temps. The front will begin to move
southeastward on Saturday as a strong shortwave ejects eastward out
of the southwest states and the upper ridge over the southeast
weakens and moves southeast. As a result, the highest rain chances
will remain across southeast Mississippi and west of I-65 in Alabama
through tomorrow.

Patchy dense fog is again possible tonight especially near the
coast. Lows will range from the low to mid 60s inland to mid and
upper 60s near the coast. Well above normal temps will continue
with highs Saturday again in the upper 70s and low 80s away from
the coast. Coastal areas will reach into the mid and upper 70s./13

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...The short term
starts off with a narrow mid level ridge axis aligned from off
the southeast US coast, southwestward to deep into the Gulf.
Looking northwest, a well established and active zone of southwest
flow aloft is maintained, keeping the bulk of organized deep
convection well west of the local area initially, along and east
of cold front moving out of the southern Plains. The high
resolution guidance favors the redevelopment of night-time fog
Saturday night, with some potential of this becoming locally dense
and more confined to areas along and southeast of I-65.

As the front continues its eastward advance, combined with the
deep south being in the favored right rear quadrant of a 140 knot
upper level jet streak lifting up across the Mid-South sends a
zone of increased ascent this direction within a sufficiently
moist deep layer environment. Thus, chances of wet weather will
be much higher going into Sunday and continuing into Sunday night.
Into the day Sunday, 0-6 KM bulk shear profiles increase to
between 45 and 55 knots within the presence of weak instability,
supporting a risk of marginally severe convective wind gusts.
Showers remain likely and perhaps a few storms along and east of
I-65 Monday. Lower chances west as the frontal boundary will be
more east of those areas then. Rain-free by Monday night as front
pushes south of the area and high pressure builds east over the
Tennessee River Valley.

Daytime highs Sunday look to remain well above normal and remain
several degrees above normal going into Monday, despite the
frontal passage. Overnight lows trend much cooler by Monday night
over the interior with lows dipping down into the upper 40s.

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...After a very brief period of
dry weather Monday night, rain chances return Tuesday into mid
week as more southern stream energy aloft drives into the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Next front makes passage Thursday.
Above normal high temperatures are expected Tuesday through
Thursday, before trending lower Friday. /10

MARINE...A moderate east to southeast wind flow will continue
through the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front. Patchy dense
fog can be expected each night ahead of the front. The front will
stall near the coast on Sunday, before moving offshore Monday into
Monday night. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase
through the weekend as the front approaches. /13


AL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for FLZ202-204-



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