Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 300514 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1214 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...IFR LEVEL STRATUS HAVE MOVED OVER THE FA AND AM
EXPECTING TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WESTERN AND NEAR COASTAL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
LOCALIZED LOW END MVFR LEVEL CIGS.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

UPDATE...SO FAR...ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY HAS BEEN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
FA...WITH COLLIDING BOUNDARIES JUST NORTH OF CRENSHAW AND BUTLER
COUNTIES. EVERYTHING ELSE IS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 30.06Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 30.12Z...THEN MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 01.00Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT
8 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 7 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SAT
MORNING...INCREASING TO 13 TO 16 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH 01.00Z. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...SHARP MID TO UPPER RIDGE JUST
WEST OF THE AL/GA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY 12Z SAT...THEN FURTHER EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SAT AFTERNOON. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE A CONTINUED
SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST WITH
THE MEAN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT OR FORCING TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON... DYING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REFORMING AGAIN
MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SAT DUE TO THE DIURNAL CHARACTER
WITH THIS PATTERN. NEAR THE SURFACE A BROAD RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING INCREASING SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY ON SAT AS A DEEP
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND INTERACT WITH THE BETTER RIDGING TO THE EAST. AS A
RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MOSTLY
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...DYING
OFF QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING THEN FILLING IN BETTER FROM THE WEST
LATE SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SAT WILL BE OVER WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7 AND 7.5 C/KM COMBINED
WITH THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN`T BE RULED THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SE MS STRETCHING INTO EXTREME WESTERN PARTS OF AL. THIS
PATTERN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST BY SAT AFTERNOON
REMAINING MOSTLY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT MOVES NORTH ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S
ALONG THE COAST. /13

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...RAIN ENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE EAST
COAST TROUGH CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL TREND BACK INTO UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST. /13

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...
THEN WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING BUILDING SOMEWHAT DURING DAY SAT
INTO SUN AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH THIS BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING LATE
SUNDAY CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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