Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 290859

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
359 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...The axis of upper trof remains
nearly in the same position over the region through tonight,
extending from off the Louisiana coast to across the forecast area
then to eastern/central Tennessee.  A shortwave approaching in the
northwesterly flow aloft moves into the base of the trof overnight
while another shortwave approaches from the northwest.  A southwest-
northeast oriented deformation zone persists over the north central
Gulf early in the period, but becomes increasingly amorphous through
the day.  Prior to essentially dissipating, this feature looks to
provide some support for convective activity generally over the
north central Gulf.  A surface trof, which is the remnants of a
frontal boundary, was located from near the mouth of the Mississippi
river to southeast Alabama along with numerous subtle boundaries
over the remainder of the area left over from previous convection.
The surface trof advance northward into the forecast area during the
day then is expected to drift southward back to near the coast and
possibly offshore overnight.  Precipitable water values near 2.0
inches, about 135 percent of normal, across the area gradually
decrease to more seasonable values of 1.5-1.75 inches over the
interior portion of the area due to deep layer flow associated with
the upper trof. With the surface trof, numerous boundaries and the
shortwave advancing into the area, expect another active day of
convection mainly for the southern half of the forecast area. MLCape
values increase to 1000-1500 J/kg for much of the area this
afternoon, then taper off to 100-500 J/kg overnight, with the best
values near the coast. Shear remains very low with high wet bulb
zero values and given other conditions expect that some storms will
become strong with strong wind gusts and prolific lightning.  The
light steering flow and abundant deep layer moisture mainly over the
southern portion of the area will favor locally heavy rainfall with
the stronger storms in this portion.  Will have pops increasing to
likely over the southern half of the area today with chance pops
further inland, then pops taper off tonight to slight chance over
much of the area, except for chance pops persisting near the coast.
Highs today will be around 90 with upper 80s near the coast.  Lows
tonight will be around 70 inland with lower to mid 70s near the
coast. /29

.SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...Thursday through
Thursday upper trough over the southeastern states
remains stationary through this portion of the forecast, keeping a
surface trough/boundary stretching sw-nw across the fa. A wet period,
mainly across the southeastern half of the fa continues. Am expecting
likely pops southeast over more favorable part of the upper trough
and surface boundary, a slight chance over northwestern-most portions
of the fa. With the gradient of rain across the area comes a
gradient in the temps, ranging from mid 90s northwest to around 90
southeast, cooler along the coast.

Friday through Friday night, the upper trough shifts eastward and
fills a bit, shifting the axis of enhanced rain chances east of the
fa, but the surface trough/boundary remains pretty much over the fa.
The gradient of rains over the fa, with higher pops southeast and
nary a drop northwest. with the decrease in rain and a bit eastward
shifting of an upper ridge over the Southern Plains, temps rise to
the low to mid 90s over much of the fa.


.LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Saturday through Sunday night,
an upper level ridge builds east over the Southeastern states, but a
piece of energy from the upper trough remains noodling around over
the north-central Gulf coast. With the upper ridge, subsidence brings
temps above seasonal, general mid 90s for highs, low to mid 70s for
lows. There is some drying out of the airmass Saturday, with a
decrease in the chance of rain to around seasonal, but by Sunday,
moisture rise to around 2", increasing the chance of rain to a near
seasonal chance.

Monday through Tuesday, both the ECMWF and GFS are advertising
shortwave energy moving east from over the Plains. The GFS takes it
on a more southeasterly track, shifting the upper ridge eastward
from over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, whilst the ECMWF takes
the energy on a more northerly track. The result is the GFS
advertising a slightly cooler and more wetter forecast the beginning
of the week as compared to the ECMWF. Have went in the middle, with
temps around to a bit above seasonal, and a chance of rain around



.MARINE...A weak area of low pressure meanders near the coast
through the remainder of the week then moves off to the north this
weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds over the central Gulf.
This will promote a light to moderate southwesterly flow over the
area through Sunday, except becoming northerly near the coast late
each night though Thursday night.  Scattered to numerous showers and
storms are expected through Thursday, with lower rain chances for
the remainder of the period.  The stronger storms will produce gusty
winds, locally higher waves and frequent lightning. /29


Mobile      88  71  89  71 /  70  40  40  20
Pensacola   89  73  87  75 /  60  40  60  30
Destin      88  75  84  76 /  50  40  60  30
Evergreen   91  70  91  70 /  60  30  50  20
Waynesboro  91  70  93  68 /  40  20  20  20
Camden      91  70  93  69 /  30  20  30  20
Crestview   90  71  90  70 /  60  30  60  30


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