Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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979
FXUS64 KMOB 090622 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1222 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...VFR conditions through 10.06z. Northerly winds at 10
to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots can be expected through 10.00z
diminishing to 7 to 10 knots through 10.06z. 32/ee

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 524 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Mid and upper level cloud decks remain over the area
through tonight before clearing Friday afternoon from north to
south. Ceilings and visibilities expected to remain at VFR levels.
Moderate northerly flow persists through the forecast period. /49

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...An upper system moving east
along the US/Canadian border will push a re-enforcing front across
the area tonight into Friday. Cooler, drier air will move over the
area, but with winds expected to be high enough to create good
mixing in the boundary layer, have went a bit above guidance with
respect to lows tonight. Lows tonight ranging from upper 20s over
northern-most sections of the FA to around 40 along the immediate
coast expected. The influx of cool air will continue, limiting
Friday`s highs to the upper 40s north to mid 50s along the coast. No
precip is expected with a temporary increase in cloud cover with the
front. 16/SAM

SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...Cool/dry surface
high pressure axis will drift east across the forecast area Friday
night through Saturday, and then east of the forecast area through
Sunday night. As the axis moves across the area...cold subfreezing
overnight temperatures will continue...extending all the way down to
near the immediate coast late Friday night and early Saturday
morning. Low level Gulf return flow begins Saturday night through
Sunday night, with moderating temperatures. No rain is expected
through short term period under mostly clear skies. Lows Friday night
will be in the low to mid 20s over all interior zones, and mid 20s to
low 30s all the way down to the coast. As freezing temperatures make
it all the way south to the coast Friday night, it will be the first
time for this to occur this cold season, and we have upgraded the
Freeze Watch for the immediate coastal zones to a Freeze Warning. No
Freeze Warnings will be issued over all interior zones as these
areas have already received their first freeze of the season. Lows
Saturday night moderate slightly to the lower 30s inland to lower 40s
coastal, and even further to the upper 40s and lower 50s inland to
upper 50s to near 60 along the coast by Sunday night. Daytime highs
expected to be in the 50s across the entire region on Saturday and in
the 60s on Sunday. 12/DS

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Another frontal boundary is
expected to slowly approach and then move into the southeast during
the long term period, becoming nearly stationary as upper flow will
be nearly zonal. This will provide an unsettled weather pattern
through the period, and with general onshore flow continuing to bring
return of Gulf moisture into the region, will be looking at a chance
for rain, perhaps some thunderstorms (especially near the coast)
through the period. For now left thunderstorms out of forecast as we
have plenty of time to evaluate amount of instability that returns to
the area. Cloudy skies through most of the period limiting daytime
heating slightly, but keeping a insulating blanket at night. High
temperatures Monday and Tuesday in the 60s and 70s, possibly cooling
slightly Wednesday into Thursday as the front drifts into and stalls
over the region. Lows Monday night still in the 50s and 60s, cooling
through the week, with lows by Wednesday night ranging from the low
to mid 30s inland to mid 40s at the coast. 12/DS

MARINE...Strong flow will continue into the weekend. Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for most of the marine area through 7am
Saturday. Direction will shift from northerly to easterly as surface
high pressure passes north of the marine area and moves to the
Eastern Seaboard. Continued eastward shifting of the surface high
brings more of an onshore flow to area coastal waters Sunday, which
will remain until the next frontal passage early Wednesday. 16/SAM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ630>635.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CST Saturday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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