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000
FXUS64 KMOB 211034
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
534 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. SO FAR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST ARE MOSTLY REPORTING
A LOW STRATUS DECK...BUT PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY BE FORMING ACROSS AT
LEAST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL ZONES. DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWFA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD OVER TX ALONG
WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD EAST OF THE
MAIN TROF. FOR TODAY EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS BETTER
MOISTURE ALOFT SPREADS EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT BETTER MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD WITH DEWPTS REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE
COAST BY EARLY WED MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MORE LOW STATUS AND FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED. WITH BETTER
MIXING ALSO ANTICIPATED FOG MADE REMAIN MORE PATCHY OVERNIGHT
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...LOWER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL GO A TAD
HIGHER IN SOME AREAS TO THE EAST INLAND FROM THE COAST DUE TO BETTER
SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WENT A TAD COOLER NEAR THE COAST ALSO DUE TO THE COOLER
NEAR SHORE WATERS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S OVER MOST OF SE MS AND THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
ALONG THE COAST. 32/EE

THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR TODAY IS LOW.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWESTERN U.S. AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ON THE BASE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS
IT MOVES TOWARD EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS
UPWARD TOWARD THE LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY...I.E. 30-40 PERCENT...
ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 WEDNESDAY...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY [MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG] LOOKS TO BE
ORIENTED ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER. WE
WILL WATCH FOR A FEW STRONG OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
ACROSS THIS REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER CURRENTLY LOOKS LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WE GENERALLY TRENDED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST CLOSE TO THE WARMEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS WEDNESDAY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TOWARD EASTERN ALABAMA/WESTERN
GEORGIA WEDNESDAY EVENING. WE LEFT A LINGERING LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE INDICATED OVER INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. COVERAGE
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD TREND
CLOSE TO RECENT OBSERVED READINGS. /21


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS FROM MEXICO AND NORTHWARD TOWARD THE PLAINS AND
MIDWESTERN STATES. WE LEFT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...NOT
TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY. THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS WILL FINALLY PUSH TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE DEEP LAYERS SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
GULF COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ALSO GETS A PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. A DRIER SURFACE AIRMASS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH MAY PUSH OUR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS BACK BELOW NORMAL. WE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY MORNING. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRY
FORECAST CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
/21

&&

.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z
THIS MORNING THEN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 04Z WED THEN MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z WED. LOW STATUS AND FOG WITH VISIBILITIES
TO BELOW 1/2 OF A MILE AT TIMES THIS MORNING REDEVELOPING AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. A FEW LOW TO MID CLOUDS EARLY TODAY
INCREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 3
TO 6 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING LOWERING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN WEAKEN
LATE IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE FRI
THROUGH EARLY SAT. BAY AND INLAND WATERS WILL BE CHOPPY TO ROUGH IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  67  86  68  87 /  05  05  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   87  69  86  70  85 /  05  05  10  20  30
DESTIN      84  71  83  71  81 /  10  05  10  20  30
EVERGREEN   92  63  89  66  90 /  10  05  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  90  65  86  65  89 /  10  10  40  20  20
CAMDEN      92  63  87  65  89 /  10  10  30  30  20
CRESTVIEW   93  61  90  66  90 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...
     ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER
     BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WILCOX...

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21