Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 230324

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
924 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.


.UPDATE...Mostly clear skies tonight will allow for efficient
radiational cooling and the development of fog. Fog should be
patchy at first but expand to areas of fog as we approach day
break. The highest potential for the dense fog development looks
to be generally east of Mobile Bay and the Alabama River as
easterly surface flow advects additional low level moisture across
this area. Tomorrow morning the sun should make fairly quick work
of the fog...burning it off by mid morning. /08


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 604 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

00Z issuance...
VFR conditions dominate for the first half of the forecast
period. However during the evening low-level east and northeast
winds will bring in higher surface dewpoints. Because of the
additional moisture after midnight expect MVFR conditions to
deteriorate to LIFR visibilities due to radiation fog forming
east of HWY 45. VLIFR visibilities from dense fog may occur near
the bays with denser fog occur along their western coasts. This
fog should dissipate late morning due to clear skies through the


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...An upper low over the eastern
Gulf crosses the Florida peninsula into the western Atlantic as
shortwave ridging builds into the central Gulf coast states. An
associated surface low over the northeast Gulf likewise crosses
the peninsula into the Atlantic, with wrap around cloudiness
gradually decreasing over the forecast area through the period,
from west to east. Dry conditions are expected through the period
with patchy to possibly areas of fog developing late tonight. Lows
tonight will be mostly in the mid 50s. Highs tomorrow will be near
80 inland ranging to mid 70s at the coast. /29

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...Upper
ridging over the region shifts gradually eastward to along the
east coast of the U.S. through Friday as an upper trof strengthens
while advancing slowly across the central/northern Plains. The
upper trof broadens through Saturday night and takes on somewhat
of a negative tilt while moving into the eastern states, with the
axis of the trof moving across the southeast states Saturday
night. An associated surface low over the central Plains Thursday
evening deepens and occludes while heading to the Great Lakes
region through Friday night, meanwhile bringing a cold front
through the forecast area late Friday night. Will continue with
dry conditions through Friday, with slight chance to chance pops
Friday night as the front moves through.  A surface high builds
into the southeast states in the wake of the front through
Saturday night, along with very dry deep layer air. Lows Thursday
night will be in the mid 50s except for upper 50s at the coast
with slightly cooler lows Friday night, then trending much cooler
Saturday night in the wake of the front with mid/upper 30s inland
ranging to lower 40s closer to the coast. Highs on Friday will be
near 80 inland ranging to mid 70s at the coast, then Saturday
will be cooler with highs ranging from the mid/upper 60s well
inland to the lower 70s closer to the coast. /29

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...An upper trof over the
interior eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic
through Monday leaving an essentially zonal flow over much of the
region. The surface high over the southeast states shifts into the
western Atlantic through Monday allowing for a return flow to
ensue over the forecast area. Another upper trof advances across
the western states and into the Plains through Wednesday, while an
associated surface low passes well north of the region and is
expected to bring a cold front through the forecast area Wednesday
evening. Dry conditions prevail over the forecast area through
Sunday night, followed by slight chance pops Monday and Tuesday
for much of the area through due to modest isentropic lift and
gradually improving deep layer moisture. Will have chance pops for
much of the area on Wednesday as the front nears the forecast
area. Highs on Sunday will be mostly in the mid 60s, then trend
warmer to mid to upper 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows Sunday
night range from the lower 40s inland to the lower 50s closer to the
coast, then trend warmer through Tuesday night to the lower 60s
inland with mid 60s closer to the coast. /29

MARINE...Have cancelled the Small Craft Advisory in effect for
much of the offshore waters as the strong offshore flow has
subsided somewhat, although will mention Small Craft Exercise
Caution for the 20-60 nm portion through early this evening. The
surface low over the extreme northeast Gulf moves off into the
western Atlantic through Friday with an offshore flow over the
area subsiding and becoming light southerly. A cold front
approaches from the Plains and moves through Friday night with a
moderate to strong offshore flow in the wake of the front which
persists through Saturday night. /29




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