Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 240535
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1135 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...Northerly surface winds are expected to become
light and variable by late morning. VFR conditions should
prevail throughout the forecast period. /08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 529 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions and a light northerly surface
flow expected to prevail over the flying area through the
forecast period. /08

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...Shortwave energy continues to
move through an upper trough centered over the eastern Conus. As the
upper energy moves off, a surface low over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico moves off. This allows a surface front over the eastern Gulf
to shift east and allow a surface ridge to move over the area.
Drier, cooler air continues to move south over the forecast area,
and in combination with good radiational cooling will allow temps to
drop to well below seasonal again tonight. Guidance is consistent in
the cool push being a bit greater over western parts of the forecast
area, and also drier, leading to a nw to se gradient in overnight
temps across the area. Lows expected to range from the low 30s far
north (with a few local drops below 30) to around 40 well southeast
of I65 and along the Fl coast.

Friday, surface high pressure moves south, stretching from the
Lower Mississippi River Valley to over the Carolina coast and open
Atlantic. With the dry airmass, good daytime heating will allow
temps to rise to around normal (northwest) to a bit above normal
(southeast), with this area seeing a bit less of the cooler push.
Guidance is in decent agreement, but is showing significant
differences, especially southeastern parts of the forecast area.
The ECMWF is tending to be the warmer solution, the NAM the
coolest. With the overall difference generally small (2-3 degrees)
have just blended the difference out. Result is highs ranging
from the mid 60s over the most northern parts of the forecast
area, then quickly rising to the upper 60s, with some around 70s
temps southeast. /16

SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...Dry weather will
prevail through the weekend as shortwave energy currently moving
into the Pacific NW will dive southeast into our region on
Saturday and reinforce the longwave trough and associated cool/dry
airmass over the southeast states. Friday night lows will range
from upper upper 30s over the western half of the area to low to
mid 40s further east and along the coast. Highs warm into upper
60s on Saturday ahead of the approaching shortwave and attendant
front. There will likely be considerable mid and high level clouds
that move through during the day Saturday and this may keep highs
a degree or two lower. Highs by Sunday will be a few degrees
cooler than Saturday in the wake of the frontal passage as cool
high pressure moves into the Midsouth and the TN Valley. Most of
the area will drop down into the mid to upper 30s for Monday
morning, except along the immediate coast which will be in the
lower 40s. 34/JFB

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Dry and slightly below
normal conditions will prevail through Monday as the surface high
shifts to the eastern seaboard. The high moves further east into
the western Atlantic by Tuesday into midweek which will result in
a moderation in temperatures. However, there is great uncertainty
with the upper level pattern during this time which will impact
the strength of return flow and any potential rain chances.
Guidance is struggling with the strength, timing, and placement of
the next strong shortwave that will move into the west coast on
Monday. Given such uncertainty, will only advertise a slight
chance of showers Wed/Thu and near to slightly above normal
temperatures. This is similar to the previous forecast. 34/JFB

MARINE...A surface ridge will shift south over the area tonight
into Friday, bringing light and variable winds to the marine area
Friday through Friday night. A re-enforcing front will move over the
area Saturday night, bringing a return of moderate to at times
offshore flow. The offshore flow quickly eases through the weekend
as surface high pressure passes north of the area, and by Tuesday
returns to a light onshore flow. /16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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