Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 230442 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE...A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE OF AIRMASS WITH THE FROPA
EXPECTED...ENOUGH SO THAT AS WINDS DROP OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY. AM EXPECTING VISBYS TO STAY IN MVFR
LEVELS...AND MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE IN THE MORN.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...UPPER LEVEL TROF MAKES A
FAST EASTWARD EXIT THIS EVENING...MOVING TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TO
OFF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A NARROW ZONE OF GULF MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED SOUTHWARD WITH IT. WITH CURRENT RADAR DATA SHOWING A VERY
MEAGER REPRESENTATION OF SHOWERS...NOT CONFIDENT WILL MEASURE AT
VERIFYING SITES TONIGHT SO WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON PROBABILITIES. SATELLITE SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. PATCHY LATE NIGHT...LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL IN FORECAST GUIDANCE TO MENTION
IN ZONES AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE CHANGE MINIMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S INTERIOR TO LOWER HALF OF THE 60S BEACHES.

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN BRINGS A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FORECAST AND A WARM CONDITIONS.
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S. BEACHES A LITTLE LOWER ON
HIGHS THERE...AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON OFF COOLER
WATERS KEEP NUMBERS IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 70S. /10

A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM
AND MOIST LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY...BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 0.8 TO LESS THAN 1.2 INCHES. WE HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE PRETTY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY READINGS...MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND AND UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 NEAR THE BEACHES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND HAVE INCLUDED
MOSTLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF A
WAYNESBORO...CAMDEN LINE THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATED WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE LATE. /21

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL
PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SATURDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN THE ZONAL FLOW MAY ENHANCE LIFT TO
PROVIDE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWFA
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LOCATIONS NEAR THE SEABREEZE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY BECOME FOCUSED OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS EAST OF I-65 BY
SATURDAY ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY...THEN INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE
STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT/TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE...BUT THE LATEST LONG RANGE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO
THE VICINITY OF IOWA/MISSOURI/ILLINOIS BY EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND AN ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS SUCH...THE
PREVIOUS POP FORECAST LOOKED GOOD...WITH RAIN/STORM PROBABILITIES
INCREASING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE INDICATED
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATE
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT WITH PLENTY OF
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING
DAYS. /21

&&

.MARINE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
OVERNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY WITH A GENERAL LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND EASTERN GULF. SEAS CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...RANGING 2 FEET OR LESS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      60  81  58  81  62 /  10  00  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   62  79  60  79  65 /  10  00  00  05  05
DESTIN      63  77  62  75  66 /  10  00  00  05  05
EVERGREEN   57  81  51  81  60 /  10  00  00  05  10
WAYNESBORO  56  81  53  83  60 /  10  00  00  10  10
CAMDEN      57  80  51  82  60 /  10  00  00  10  10
CRESTVIEW   57  84  53  83  61 /  10  00  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

10/21







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