Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KMOB 231805 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
105 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.AVIATION [23.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE 24.18Z...WITH ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS (~3500 TO 4500
FEET) THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING CLEAR OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. /22

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA METARS ARE
DETECTING A LARGE EXPANSE OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS...AFTER STRONG INSOLATION UNDER CLEAR MORNING
SKIES. LATEST AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALREADY
RANGE FROM 93 TO 98 DEGREES...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 72 TO 76 DEGREES...HAVE PUSHED HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 100 AND 110. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND
SUNDAY FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. STILL EXPECT A FEW POP
UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

MARINE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY INCREASING
WINDS 3 TO 5 KNOTS MOSTLY OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO GOOD
DRAINAGE THIS MORNING AND FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR A
STRONGER SEABREEZE THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

.DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 107 TO 112
DEGREES FOR ALL INLAND AREAS STARTING JUST NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST STRETCHING NORTH OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP
RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TODAY WITH A
WELL DEFINED THERMAL RIDGE DEPICTED AT 925 MB CENTERED OVER THE CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. AS FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE WITH A
20 POP OR ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG
A WEAK SEABREEZE BOUNDARY SHIFTING INLAND OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
OF AL AND NWFL. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV/MET
GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING MINOR TWEAKS FOR CONSISTENCY WITH
SURROUNDING WFO`S. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK WILL BE MODERATE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY REGION AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION SUNDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MEANWHILE STRETCH FROM THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA
WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSHING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AL AND CENTRAL
GA. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING WILL BECOME ENHANCED ACROSS OUR CWFA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL TREND FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND
100 DEGREES OVER MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS MAY MIX OUT TO
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE
BETWEEN 106 AND 110 DEGREES WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS AS HIGH AS 112
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT CRENSHAW AND BUTLER COUNTIES...WHERE HEAT
INDICES LOOK TO GENERALLY AVERAGE BELOW 106.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL OTHERWISE INCREASE FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOKING TO RISE TO 1.8 TO 2.1
INCHES ACROSS THE CWFA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BETTER
COVERAGE OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WITHIN THE REGION OF
HIGHER PWATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. MOISTURE GRADUALLY ADVECTS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION BECOMING FOCUSED MOSTLY NEAR THE COAST OR OFFSHORE. /21

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY....WITH SURFACE FLOW
BECOMING EASTERLY IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY COOL BACK
DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDS INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. A PLUME OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN BETWEEN 2 AND 2.25 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...AND WE WILL KEEP
POPS RANGING FROM 30-40 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA...TO AROUND 50 PERCENT OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO RE-
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATING DEEP LAYER DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY...AND WILL
OPT TO GO FOR A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. LOWER
DEWPOINTS MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING LOWS AND LOWER
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES GOING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. UPPER
RIDGING MAY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE
LATE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES...
BUT OUR CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF
THIS NEXT SYSTEM. /21

AVIATION [23.12Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24.12Z.
COULD SEE A VERY BRIEF PD OF LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO WEST 3 TO 5 KNOTS
EARLY TODAY SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 2 TO
4 KNOTS LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE SE UNITED STATES AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION MON INTO TUES. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT A
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY SHIFTING
NORTHEAST THEN EAST AND BUILDING TO 15 TO 18 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
SEAS AT 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH EARLY MON WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET BY
EARLY TUES MORNING THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FT BY THU
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT LATE MON THROUGH EARLY WED. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON THROUGH EARLY TUE.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      97  75  99  76  92 /  20  05  20  30  50
PENSACOLA   96  79  99  78  92 /  20  05  30  30  50
DESTIN      91  82  97  81  90 /  20  05  30  30  40
EVERGREEN   99  74 100  74  93 /  20  05  30  30  30
WAYNESBORO  99  72  99  74  94 /  20  05  20  30  50
CAMDEN      99  73  99  74  92 /  10  05  30  30  30
CRESTVIEW   99  75  99  74  94 /  20  05  30  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...
     UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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