Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 311731 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1231 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...REINFORCING COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH/INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAGNITUDE IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT AND EXPECTED NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY
FLOW...SUGGESTS THAT CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE MET OVER
THE GULF COAST TONIGHT. LATEST GRIDDED WIND SPEEDS CALL FOR NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES TONIGHT. THE STRONGER OF
THESE WINDS LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE LAND AND SEA INTERFACE AT
THE BEACHES. /10

MARINE... GIVEN THE STRENGTH ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...COLDER AIR
ADVECTION ATOP WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT WIND
FIELD...UNUSUALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
SUPPORT TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE WATER
SURFACE. CONSIDERING THIS...THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE
WEATHER MODELS ARE ALSO IN SUPPORT OF THIS SCENARIO...INDICATING THAT
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY OVER ALL MARINE WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. THUS...LATEST GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL BAYS AND SOUNDS. NO CHANGE TO EXPECTED
TIMING. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
31.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF
CLOUDS WITH BASES 3 TO 5 KFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO RAIN
ANTICIPATED. SKIES CLEARING LATE TONIGHT. VSBY OK. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...INCREASING NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOW
BEGINNING BY AND AFTER 21Z. WINDS INCREASE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS POSSIBLY BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE BEACH AREAS. THE INCREASE IN WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD TO APPROACHES AND DEPARTURES. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  38  58  34  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   74  42  60  37  64 /  00  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      74  43  61  40  65 /  00  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   74  36  57  30  62 /  05  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  72  35  58  30  62 /  05  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      73  35  57  30  61 /  05  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   75  38  60  31  65 /  05  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER
     BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...CRENSHAW...
     MONROE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GREENE...PERRY...WAYNE...

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








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