Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 290440 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...SOME LINGERING TSRA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10 WILL
CREATE LOCALIZED MVFR LEVEL CIGS/VISBYS...OTHERWISE...GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.

/16

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE [TONIGHT AND TUESDAY]...A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS
MADE STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH THE AXIS
OF THE FRONT HAVING MOVED TO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE
TRACKED SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND ARE NOW MOSTLY OFFSHORE...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW OVER MOBILE/BALDWIN COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND THE SOUTHWARD TRANSLATION OF
NARROW EAST TO WEST ZONE OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE...STORMS WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ENTIRELY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3
HOURS. THERE REMAINS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED STORM CAN
BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS THIS EVENING...BUT
THE WAY THE RADAR DATA IS LOOKING EARLY THIS EVENING...IT APPEARS THE
RISK IS DIMINISHING.

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...MOVING THE HIGHER CHANCES OFF THE COAST. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /10

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES QUICKLY
CLEARING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S WELL INLAND WITH LOWER 70S ALONG
THE COAST.

HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. SO
WHILE HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 90...HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE A
FACTOR. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

LONG TERM...FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION RESULTING IN
POSSIBLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH THE MOBILE AND PENSACOLA
AREAS WED MORNING...INCLUDING MANY OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST
AREA. THE CURRENT RECORD LOW FOR MOBILE FOR WED IS 67 AND 66 FOR
THU...AND 67 FOR BOTH WED AND THU FOR PENSACOLA. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPS FOR THESE AREAS ARE VERY CLOSE TO THESE VALUES OR A DEGREE OR 2
LOWER. OTHERWISE...A DEEP PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN CONUS
INCLUDING MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN COOLER DRIER WEATHER THROUGH EARLY FRI
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY IN RESPONSE TO BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH DUE TO A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE WEEK
COMBINED WITH INCREASED FORCING OR LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS DUE TO A
SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES IN THE MID LEVELS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROF FRI THROUGH MON...POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK. DUE TO CONTINUED DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE STRENGTH OF SOME OF THE
IMPULSES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE FRI CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED BY FRI CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND ECMWF EXTENDED TEMPS AND TWEAK FOR CONSISTENCY
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH FRI AND THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE FRONT DISSIPATES SOUTH OF
THE COASTAL WATERS BY MIDWEEK. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. SEAS THIS EVENING WILL BE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE WITH
SEAS DIMINISHING BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS 1-2 FT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. 34/JFB

FIRE WEATHER...A VERY UNSEASONAL LIKE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOWERING TO THE MID 20 PERCENTILE RANGE FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND THE LOWER TO MID 30
PERCENTILE RANGE FOR ALL OTHER AREAS INCLUDING MOST AREAS NEAR THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR WARNING IS
NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO 20 FOOT WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...DISPERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...NO FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG FOR SOME INLAND
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  91  66  91  67 /  30  05  05  05  10
PENSACOLA   74  92  71  90  70 /  30  05  05  05  05
DESTIN      76  92  74  88  73 /  30  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   67  90  60  89  63 /  10  00  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  66  89  61  90  64 /  10  05  05  10  10
CAMDEN      66  89  60  89  63 /  10  05  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   68  92  62  92  64 /  20  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










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