Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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358
FXUS64 KMOB 262352 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
652 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions forecast this evening with varying
southerly winds from southeast to southwest in direction at 7 to
10 kts. With high pressure to the east, there are indications
that low stratus will be forming during the pre-dawn hours
Saturday AM with cig bases potentially lowering to IFR categories.
/10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...A quiet night expected for the
area as shortwave ridging continues to build across the region from
the west. Surface high pressure centered over the northeast Gulf will
maintain a light southerly wind through the night which results in
warmer overnight lows. Lows will range from the low to mid 60s far
inland to the upper 60s/near 70 at the coast. Skies may turn mostly
cloudy for a time early in the morning as low level moisture around
925 mb is advected into the area via southwesterly winds. Another dry
day expected Saturday as upper level ridging maintains its grip on
the Gulf and northern Gulf coast. Saturday afternoon is expected to
be 4-5 degrees warmer than this afternoon as anomalously warm 850
mb temps move into the region. Higher dewpoints will result in heat
indices rising into the mid to upper 90s by afternoon. 34/JFB

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...Mid to upper
level ridging begins to shift east of the area Saturday night into
Sunday in advance of a shortwave trough that moves into the
midwest and lower MS valley. Still see little chance for storms
through Sunday as deep layer moisture profiles remain fairly dry
with forecast soundings still showing a capping inversion in place
around 850 mb due to the aforementioned warm temps at that level.
Therefore, have left rain chances below 20%. Sunday`s highs and
heat indices similiar to those on Saturday. By Sunday evening,
deep Great Lakes low pressure system is strong enough to whip a
large scale cold front into the U.S. Deep South. So, a weak cold
front will move through the region Monday afternoon and evening
before stalling by early Tuesday. Best chance of rain will exist
both along and ahead of the front on Monday (especially Monday
afternoon and evening and NW of I-65 Corridor). Large scale
forcing is less than impressive with the approach and passage of
the front through our area. Flow aloft is confluent and out of
phase with evolving areas of low-level convergence, so little to
no kinematic engagement is available for deep-layer ascent along
the front. There will be ample thermodynamic instability for
thunderstorms on Monday, but at some point, there will be an
elevated-nature to any deep convection that may occur past late
day Monday through most of Tuesday (especially to the NW - not so
much SE). Maximum high temperatures across the region on Monday
will be below their climatological averages (mainly low 80s from
Wayne Co., MS to mid 80s extreme western FL Panhandle). /23 JMM
and /34 JFB

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...Deep-layer moisture
associated with aforementioned stalled front keeps regional
atmosphere unsettled into mid-week. Rain chances remain elevated
Tuesday, and perhaps lingering effects Wednesday. Max
temperatures will also be a tad lower Tuesday afternoon due to the
associated clouds. Coolest NW of I-65, warmer to the SE (i.e.,
Okaloosa county, FL). Expect a little less precipitation coverage
each day beginning on Wednesday, with a more normal diurnal sea-
breeze regime becoming re-established by Thursday. Highs solidly
in the upper 80s for both Thursday and Friday. /23 JMM

MARINE...As surface high pressure remains centered just off to
our southeast, a relatively light to moderate S to SW wind flow
will prevail through Sunday. A weak cold front will stall along
the coast Monday night and will have little effect on winds and
seas through late Tuesday. It will bring an increase in rainfall
coverage. Winds become light and variable on Tuesday due to the
proximity of the front. Surface high pressure becomes established
on Wednesday with a return to more of a normal sea-breeze pattern
by late week. /23 JMM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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