Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 240511 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1211 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


06Z issuance...VFR ceilings and visibilities will prevail through
Wednesday afternoon. The only exception will be lower ceilings and
visibilities in and around isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing on Wednesday around 24.20z. Light winds
overnight will become east and then southeast near 10 knots on
Wednesday. /22


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 547 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...Did a quick update to the current zone forecast to lower
rain chances for late this afternoon and this evening. Latest radar
loops show less coverage than earlier anticipated...with this
pattern continuing into the evening hours. Latest hi res data show
isolated showers and thunderstorms to slowly dissipate through
sunset. 32/ee

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are starting to form over coastal and some inland
areas which is a little later than the last couple of days...though
still believe we will see some decent coverage by late afternoon over
most inland areas generally south of highway 84...generally moving
southward later in the day. Latest meso data from SPC shows the best
instability...mixed layered capes up to 2500 j/kg...over Mobile and
Baldwin counties in Al stretching east into extreme western parts of
NWFL and northward over the Alabama river delta and along the MS/AL
border...ranging from 1500 to 2000 j/kg for most other inland areas.
With this along with marginal lapse rates generally less than 6.0
c/km and limited forcing aloft the risk for strong to severe
thunderstorm development will remain low with gusty straight line
winds possibly up 40 mph...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
periods of very heavy rain being the main threats for the rest of
today. By early to mid evening most of the convection should be
weakening due to the lack of daytime heating followed by partial
clearing overnight and early wed. For wed during the day isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be forming near the coast and offshore
early then moving inland by late morning and early afternoon...with
slightly better coverage by mid to late afternoon for most inland
areas...continuing into the early evening hours. Latest model
guidance does show slightly better instability for most areas on wed
combined with slightly better lapse rates in the mid to upper
levels...6.0 to 6.3 c/km...along with weak forcing continuing aloft
suggesting maybe a few more stronger storms by mid to late afternoon
though remaining mostly below severe limits throughout the day.
Tonights lows will range from the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to
near 80 along the immediate coast. Highs Wed will be in the lower to
middle 90s inland and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the immediate
coast. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...Deep layer
ridging will build over the southeastern states through the period.
As the sfc flow becomes east to northeast on the south side of the
ridge, some drier air will be advected into northern and eastern
portions of the area. This will keep the highest pops near the coast
and across western portions of the area where the better deep layer
moisture will reside. Highs will be in the low 90s each day with
lows in the low to mid 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. /13

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Dry air will continue to be
pumped into the area as the ridge hold strong north of the area.
Precipitable water values drop below 1.5 inches Saturday into Sunday.
All eyes then turn to the tropics for the first part of next week to
see what (if any) impacts 99L may have on the area. However, it is
way too early to talk specifics on a system that has yet to develop.
Either way, moisture levels are expected to increase with rain
chances also increasing. /13

MARINE...High pressure will continue over the northern gulf through
Fri then weaken over the weekend and into early next week as a
tropical disturbance nears the Bahamas and Fl penisula early in the
weekend...possibly moving further west over the se gulf by early next
week. With this pattern expect winds to shift mostly east by midweek
with better velocities occurring during the early to mid morning
hours each day through the weekend. For the remainder of the week
seas will gradually climb to around 3 ft well offshore and possibly 4
feet over the weekend with a light to moderate chop on inland bays
and sounds. Winds and seas will also be higher near isolated showers
and thunderstorms through the forecast period. 32/ee


.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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