Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 220723 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
323 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
CORRECTED SENTENCE IN THE SECOND PARAGRAPH IN THE SHORT TERM
PORTION TO READ 08Z TO 13Z THURSDAY.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
A CLOSED UPPER-LOW CONTINUES TO SCOOT TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS PUSHED SOME BKN
TO OVC DECKS OF LOW STRATUS INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND FAR
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. THIS CLOUD COVER HAS DONE LITTLE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING HOWEVER AS NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED TO
BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S NOTED THERE AS OF 3 AM EDT. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REINFORCING THIS COOLER AIR MASS. THUS DESPITE
THE AMPLE SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN. THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DROPS INTO NORTH CAROLINA.

BY THE EVENING...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVAILING IN MOST
LOCATIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT NOTED OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY
WILL ALSO RELAX...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN AND EVEN
COMPLETELY DECOUPLE IN SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS. AS A RESULT...LOWS
WILL BE EVEN COOLER TONIGHT AND DROP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU...SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP
/ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS/ LATE TONIGHT. THUS...DECIDED TO
ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS /AND THE EAST TN MTNS/ FROM
08Z TO 13Z THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED THAT IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REALLY A PROLONGED STRETCH OF SOME AWESOME FALL WEATHER DAYS AND
NIGHTS. ONLY ITEM OF ANY CONCERN IS THE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING THAT SETS UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS TRENDING VERY
DRY BY THEN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY DOWN TO 1/4
INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GROWING SEASON SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN...BUT I FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO MENTION AREAS OF FROST
(OUTSIDE OF NRN AND SMOKY MTNS WHERE A FREEZE OCCURRED ON 10/20).
THIS WILL ALSO BE NOTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT (HWO).

OTHERWISE...REALLY NO RETURN OF ANY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW UNTIL
LATE MONDAY. NAM MOS WAS AT ODDS WITH GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY THRU
FRIDAY MAX/MIN TEMPS. WENT CLOSER TO GFS MOS FOR NOW...SINCE COOLER
MINS AND WARMER MAXES MAKE MORE SENSE GIVEN THE PATTERN.

FINAL NOTE...12Z AND OOZ GFSX MOS GUIDANCE TRENDING AWAY FROM
PREVIOUS MAX/MIN GRIDS FROM THE WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY. MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO ALSO BRING US MORE IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING NWS
GRIDS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  40  69  42 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  38  65  40 /  10   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  38  66  40 /  10   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              54  35  61  34 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AMP/TG



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