Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 290710
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
EASTERN KY AND SOUTHERN WV...WITH A MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND
NORTHEAST TN LATER TODAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE REGION.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN.
THUS...WILL RAISE POPS A LITTLE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WILL TREND A LITTLE
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE WITH MINS TONIGHT SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY
FAIRLY HIGH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST AND FLATTEN. THIS WILL WILL ALLOW FOR
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION AS AN UPPER-TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...TRIGGERING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL INITIALLY BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE AREA FORM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A
DEEP MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE GULF. WITH A WEAKER CAP...SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION SEEMS LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS WEEKEND BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S NEXT WEEK
AS THICKNESSES INCREASE ALOFT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             94  70  89  72 /  10  10  40  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  92  68  88  71 /  20  20  30  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       92  68  87  71 /  20  20  30  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              88  65  86  65 /  30  30  10  40
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/AMP


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