Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 280727
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
327 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING FOR TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT...ALTHO THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. A
LIGHT SE TO S LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BE ESTABLISHED BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DON`T EXPECT ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR MORE
THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM. OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
TODAY WITH MINS VERY MUCH NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE
GFS MOS TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...OVERALL PATTERN IS CHANGING
AS A MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY THE BEST CHANCE IS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS BUT MOSTLY DRY NORTHEAST. AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY THEN SLIGHTLY LESS CHANCES MONDAY.
FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE BUT WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTH
FROM ERIKA ALONG THE EAST COAST THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH AFTER MONDAY AS THE TRACK OF
ERIKA FARTHER EAST WOULD LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY BEING
MORE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EXCEPT ONLY LOWER 80S SUNDAY WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  68  86  69 /  10  10  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  67  86  66 /  10  10  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       86  66  85  67 /  10  10  20  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  59  84  62 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG/TD


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