Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 010726
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
326 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)...Atmosphere will remain rather
dry through the period.  A weak cold front will be approaching late
today...but will have little moisture or convective energy to work
with.  May be enough for a shower or thunderstorm mainly across the
plateau...so will include a slight chance PoP there.  Tonight
expected to be dry with just some patches of mainly high/mid clouds
around.  MAV temps generally look reasonable for the short term
period so will not stray far.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)...The atmosphere gradually
becomes more conducive to thunderstorm development during the first
half of the new week as several short waves ride east across the Mid
South. There will be just a slight chance for a shower or
thunderstorm Saturday and Saturday night; mainly over the higher
terrain as the atmosphere moistens ahead of a weak wave moving
through the Ohio Valley. However, probability of precipitation will
increase across the entire forecast area Sunday into Monday with the
best chance of showers and thunderstorms on the Fourth of July as a
stronger wave builds across the Southern Appalachian region. The
combined effect of increased cloud cover and convective rainfall
with each passing disturbance will help drag a cool frontal boundary
into the Southern Appalachians Tuesday into Wednesday. The boundary
will serve as a focus for a continuation of scattered convection
through Wednesday. However, the chance for rain will be on the
decrease by Thursday as the deeper moisture shifts east with
subsidence and drying slowly taking hold over the region as high
pressure builds east through the Mississippi Valley. High
temperatures will be near to just a little above normal during the
long term period while lows stay a few degrees above normal due to
higher humidity and some cloud cover associated with the more active
early week weather pattern.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             94  69  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  92  68  88  69 /  10  10  10  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       91  67  88  69 /  10  10  10  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              89  63  84  65 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$




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