Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 261904
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
304 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Monday)...First mid/upper level trough
will lift out as second approaches during the period. Current
convection is expected to lift northeast with less activity
overnight, although cannot rule out a shower at any time. Tomorrow
will see instability increase again and with upper trough edging
closer, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms especially in
the afternoon. At this point instability does not look overly
impressive for Monday and while a few strong to severe storms
cannot be ruled out, the probability does not look great despite
some shear. MAV temps generally look reasonable, so will not stray
far from guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)... For the extended
forecast period, it`s really just the same old story as the last
couple days: The unsettled weather pattern will continue with series
of systems moving through the area. Showers and thunderstorms will
be ongoing to start the period, with an upper level shortwave
positioned just to our east. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
continue through at least the first half of Tuesday, but these
should mainly be garden variety thunderstorms, and severe storms are
not anticipated. The shortwave slowly pushes off the east coast
Tuesday afternoon, and we should get a brief stretch of dry weather
for Wednesday and the first half of Thursday as a weak ridge builds
over the southeast US. Models continue to show differences with the
next system, but the general consensus is another round of
convection will move through Thursday into Friday as the center of a
low pressure system tracks northeast just west of the forecast area.
Some lingering showers are possible early Saturday behind the
departing system, then another brief dry spell is expected before
yet another system moves in at the end of the forecast period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             56  76  60  78 /  20  50  60  40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  57  76  58  75 /  20  40  70  60
Oak Ridge, TN                       56  75  58  74 /  20  50  70  50
Tri Cities Airport, TN              52  77  53  70 /  30  40  60  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

LW/EMH



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