Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 280753
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
350 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MCV OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE
VALLEY SHOULD WORK ON DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE MID
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE MODERATELY STELLAR H-
TRIPLE R AND OTHER MODELS INDICATE THE BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL EAST
TENNESSEE. PERHAPS THE LOWEST CHANCE OF RAIN WOULD BE OVER NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. WITH THIS IN MIND APPLIED
LIKELY POPS WEST WITH LOWER TO MEDIUM CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE VIEWING AREA. DROPPED POPS OFF
GRADUALLY TONIGHT IN THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE MAX
SCHEME LOOKS GOOD WITH WARMEST MAXES ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AREA AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND ALONG
THE PLATEAU WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD CAP OFF HEATING. MINS
SHOULD BE MILD OVERNIGHT IN THE TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE 850-700 MB RIDGE OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE STABILITY AND LESS POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND WILL HAVE CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS THAT FAVOR A DIURNAL TREND NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN.

ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE OZARKS. THE RETREAT OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
AS THE LOW APPROACHES SHOULD ENHANCE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW
BEGINNING SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE CLOSED LOW
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY TO OUR WEST OVER THE MS VALLEY...SO THIS
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW WILL PERSIST AND MAKE FOR A RATHER WET
PERIOD TO START NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE PRECIP CHANCES IN THE LIKELY
RANGE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAVORING A DIURNAL
PATTERN...AND LEAN TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             81  65  86  67 /  60  40  50  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  82  64  84  65 /  60  30  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       81  64  84  65 /  60  30  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  62  85  63 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$


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