Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK

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000
FXAK67 PAJK 280332 CCA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
217 PM AKDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SHORT TERM...Overall clear skies and dry weather after a morning
of radiational fog over portions of the AK panhandle. Northerly
winds and offshore flow developed due to a low south of Haida
Gwaii extended an inverted trough over the AK Panhandle. Marine
winds overall less than 20 kts over coastal waters and inner
channels. Due to drying and the northerly flow not anticipating as
much wide spread dense fog as seen Wednesday morning, but with
residual moisture and cooling fog development is probable again.
Southern areas will have some high to mid level cloud deck
extending up form the low to the south, but low chances of any
precip making it in. Local thermal winds and afternoon sea breezes
for Thursday. Thursday night will be another cold one with large
diurnal temperature swing but with the additional drying much
less chance of fog. Little change made to inherited forecast as
models remain in good alignment.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/...Extremely minor changes
to the overall long term package. A warm frontal band is still
expected to move into the region late Friday night and extend over
the panhandle Saturday morning. With this trough, expect some
temperatures to drop and snow chances to increase. Expect these
chances to remain mostly marginal and quickly diminished with the
incoming warm front Saturday morning. Behind the warm front on
Saturday, a stronger warm front pushes in from a strong low near
Kodiak Island. Along with warmer temperatures, moderate rainfall,
mainly targeted at the NE gulf coast, will push in alongside the
front. Behind the front, continued onshore flow and deep moisture
will ensure upslope rainfall will continue through the weekend.
Ensemble guidance indicate that 1.0 to 1.5 inches of rainfall is
expected for the Yakutat area in a 24 hour period, with a higher
percentage of models near the 1.5 inch mark. There does exist a
10% chance of above 2 inches of rainfall in 24 hours, but this
scenario was not weighted heavily. Rainfall rates are expected
to be around 0.10 - 0.12 per hour at the heaviest.

For changes, brought up QPF slightly to reflect above discussion
on rainfall totals. Furthermore, brought up winds Saturday night
in the inner channels to reflect the stronger trough moving into
the Yukon. There is increasing potential for gusts up to 50 mph in
Skagway as the trough passes north, and small craft winds up to 30
knots in Lynn Canal. Otherwise, warm temperature will keep
conditions mild and more importantly, keep precipitation type as
mostly rain for sea level communities.

&&

.AVIATION...We had some areas of low clouds and fog form up early
this morning, but most sites were seeing ceilings and visibilities
lifting by 19Z. Expect the same pattern tonight with patches of
fog forming after 10Z lingering until around 18Z. We took a few
sites down to IFR in restricted visibilities for essentially the
same time period (Yakutat, Gustavus, Juneau, Petersburg, and
Wrangell). Otherwise, expect VFR through the evening with just
some high cloudiness streaming in across the southern areas of the
Panhandle tonight.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-661>664.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PRB
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...JG

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