843
FXUS61 KBTV 091417
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1017 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be mainly dry as we lie between two low pressure
areas. Shower chances increase tonight into tomorrow mainly in
southern areas, although steady rain looks to stay farther
south. Scattered showers are expected over the weekend with
temperatures remaining near or a bit below normal. Temperatures
trend seasonably warm early next week, with at least some chance
of showers continuing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1015 AM EDT Thursday...We`ve seen a few more breaks in
cloud cover than expected, especially across New York, this
morning. This is allowing for temperatures to warm slightly
quicker. Overall, forecast changes are minimal but it`s nice to
see a little sunshine today.

Previous Discussion...
Weak subsidence behind a cold front will continue this morning
and with a strong May sun we should see morning stratus scatter
with a mix of sun and clouds for most locations by this
afternoon. The interplay of some vorticity advection and diurnal
heating supports a low chance (upwards of 20%) of showers from
mid-afternoon through the evening, particularly towards the
International Border and across northeastern Vermont where the
forcing for ascent will be greater. Temperatures will be a bit
below normal ranging from the mid 50s through the low 60s.

Tonight through tomorrow, precipitation chances increase somewhat,
mainly over our western and southern areas in association with weak
large scale ascent ahead of a sharp upper trough over the
Midwest. It is becoming increasingly clear cut that steady rain
will stay south of our region for most if not all of the period
given the steering flow ahead of the approaching system. PoPs
might still be a bit high, but in deference to some model
guidance that brings rain a bit farther north have kept at least
a slight chance of showers areawide in the forecast. Still
expect somewhat of a north to south gradient in temperatures
tomorrow afternoon, but if the deeper clouds and precipitation
keep trending farther south, even our southern areas will warm
nicely into the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 329 AM EDT Thursday...The general idea remains the same
for the short term, with deepening mid/upper lvl trof and best
s/w forcing passing to our south. However, given mid/upper lvl
trof axis directly overhead and associated pocket of enhanced
mid lvl moisture, the idea of scattered showers on Sat/Sat Night
looks reasonable. Sounding data shows weak instability
lingering into the evening hours, along with favorable 850 to
700mb moisture profiles, so have continued with chc pops into
the evening hours. Best probability of light measurable qpf wl
be over the higher trrn, especially northern NY on Sat aftn into
the evening hours. Not anticipating a washout like last Sunday,
but if you have outdoor plans, especially in the aftn/evening
plan for some light showers in the area. Lows mainly in the 40s
with highs upper 50s to mid 60s for the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Thursday...The core of the coldest air aloft
with 500mb temps near -25C is directly overhead on Sunday, which
combined with additional s/w energy wl produce more scattered
hit and miss type showers. Soundings try to hint at some drier
air advecting into the region on north/northeast winds,
especially acrs the NEK, but given cooling aloft and some weak
sfc heating, thinking instability driven showers are possible.
Not anticipating an all day rain or washout at this time. Once
again the highest probabilities look to be acrs the higher trrn
of northern NY and central/southern Greens. Progged 850mb temps
on Sunday hover near 0C, which adding a generous 15C would
support highs only in the upper 40s to mid/upper 50s warmest
valleys. If more sun develops and 850mb temps modify in upcoming
model guidance, highs could easily be in the mid 60s,
especially with mid May sun angle. Plenty of uncertainty on
timing and magnitude of next mid/upper lvl trof development and
associated track of sfc low pres for early to mid week. Have
continued with chc pops almost daily as timing of individual
features in a rather complex mid/upper lvl pattern is very
challenging. Temps remain at or slightly below seasonable
normals for mid May with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s,
with a slight warming trend toward mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Low clouds are mixing out this morning with
EFK the lone holdout with IFR conditions, but there too a mix
of MVFR and VFR conditions are expected today. NW winds will
mostly be 10 knots or less, with some gusts at MPV, PBG and BTV
near 20 knots through about 10Z. Winds will trend
north/northeasterly after 18Z. Some lowering again of ceilings,
to mainly MVFR levels, is favored at sites including RUT, MPV,
and SLK due light easterly flow develops towards the end of the
TAF period.


Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Clay/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Kutikoff