824
FXUS61 KBTV 100215
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1015 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather is expected to continue through much of the next
week with chances for showers nearly every day. It`ll be handy to
have an umbrella or rain jacket nearby but outdoor plans shouldn`t
be impacted as no heavy rainfall is expected at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1015 PM EDT Thursday...Only minor adjustments made to the
forecast this evening, mainly to reduce PoPs overnight as
trends in guidance have been for drier conditions. Much of the
lower clouds across the region earlier have eroded and we`re
left with broken to overcast mid and high clouds for the
remainder of the night. While thick enough to block the setting
sun earlier, they haven`t stopped temps from cooling as
previously forecasted so no changes made to overnight min temps
which should mainly fall into the low/mid 40s with some isolated
upper 30s in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom.

Another round of showers is on tap for Friday although coverage
remains uncertain at this time. The upper level flow is
expected to split with weak high pressure over much of the North
Country which should shunt the bulk of shower activity south of
the region. The latest high-res guidance is showing most shower
activity will be focused across the southern Greens and
Adirondack Mountains with less coverage elsewhere. Nevertheless,
we don`t expect a washout by any means on Friday but it might
be handy to have an umbrella or rain jacket.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 248 PM EDT Thursday...Scattered showers can be expected this
weekend as an upper level trough swings across the region. While
neither day this weekend looks to be a complete wash-out, the
weather will remain fairly unsettled. The best chances for
measurable precipitation will be across northern New York Saturday
afternoon into the evening. Temperatures this weekend be on the cool
side, with high temperatures several degrees below normal with 925mb
temperatures ranging from 2C to 5C. Daytime highs this weekend will
top out in the 50s to low 60s, although if the sun is able to break
through clouds temperatures could warm even more under the May sun
angle. Overnight lows will be more seasonable given cloud cover,
with temperatures generally in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 248 PM EDT Thursday...Unsettled weather continues as we head
into next week, with continued chances for showers as several
shortwaves pass through the region. There continues to be some
uncertainty regarding the timing and location of precipitation given
the upper level pattern, with the forecast relying on blended
guidance, but continued chances of scattered to numerous rain
showers are expected for most of next week. The showers look to be
more nuisance-type showers rather than impactful rain or
thunderstorms. Temperatures next week look to be seasonable, with
daytime highs in the 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the 40s to
low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
period under BKN-OVC mid clouds. Some isolated showers will be
possible Friday afternoon, but shouldn`t reduce flight
categories. Otherwise, variable winds less than 6kts tonight
will continue Friday increasing to 5-10kts.


Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Lahiff