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000
FXUS63 KDLH 252344
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
644 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet conditions tonight and not as cold with increasing
  clouds.

- A more active pattern sets up starting Friday with two
  Colorado lows affecting the region for the weekend and into
  early next week.

- Rain chances persist into midweek along with warmer
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 428 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A large area of high pressure was centered over the lower Great
Lakes this afternoon and stretched from the Ohio Valley to
Hudson Bay. A developing area of low pressure was over eastern
Colorado and will be the focus for rainfall affecting the Upper
Midwest for Friday into Saturday. Mainly clear skies will
continue into this evening before clouds ahead of the low start
spreading in overnight. With southerly flow bringing warmer air
into the region and increasing clouds, lows will be warmer
tonight in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Showers will begin overspreading the region around daybreak
Friday starting in the Brainerd Lakes area and reaching the
Minnesota Arrowhead by midday. Global models and hi-res CAMs
have come into better agreement on the onset timing of the
rainfall over the last few packages. Following an initial round
of showers with perhaps some embedded thunder, there may be a
break through the afternoon and evening before more showers
with embedded thunder arrive as the low continues to slowly
approach the area. The low tracks from southern Minnesota to
Upper Michigan through the day Saturday with additional rounds
of showers and storms expected. There may be enough shear for a
few stronger organized storms across northwest Wisconsin and the
SPC has areas east of a Birchwood to Odanah line outlined in a
marginal risk for severe storms. However, with the low looking
to track right through this area around midday, the threat may
end up more to the south and east our our northwestern Wisconsin
zones.

As the first low departs to the northeast Saturday night, a dry
period looks likely before more showers and embedded storms
arrive with another Colorado low moving out of the Central
Plains on Sunday. The 12z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are fairly
close in both the track and speed of the second low and takes it
along a similar path as the first one. This second low looks to
have a stronger Gulf connection which will lead to heavier
rainfall during the Sunday and Sunday night time frame. Part of
the warm sector may clip parts of northwestern Wisconsin, so a
few stronger storms may be possible Sunday evening, but the
timing of the warm front will greatly play into this and if the
front doesn`t arrive until Sunday night, that will greatly lower
any severe threat. Rain lingers into Monday before tapering off
Monday afternoon into Monday night. Total rainfall amounts for
the two systems are in the 1 to 2+ inch range now with PWATS
remaining above the 90th percentile through the weekend. We
continue to have parts of the CWA outlined by the WPC for a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall Friday into Friday night
and again on Sunday. Given the long duration of the event and
antecedent dry conditions, flooding is not a high concern
currently, but heavier showers and storms may lead to short term
minor flooding issues.

Looking ahead to mid next week, the pattern remains active with
additional chances for rainfall. Temperatures do look to trend
warmer with highs in the 60s away from Lake Superior. This will
be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late April/early May.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

This evening, low level wind shear will develop at all TAF sites
as a strong low level jet develops overnight with south winds of
40 knots at around 2kft above ground level, persisting until
sunrise when these winds will begin to mix down at all sites.
Increasing clouds on Friday with rain beginning from west to
east Friday afternoon/evening, causing ceilings and visibilities
to reduce to IFR levels by mid to late afternoon at all sites.
Winds will be out of the southeast at 15 to 20 knots with gusts
over 30 knots. Rain and IFR or worse conditions will persist
Friday night into Saturday morning, with off and on rain through
the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 428 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

High pressure will continue to shift off to the east tonight.
Low pressure will develop over eastern Colorado and move
towards western Lake Superior tomorrow. This will lead to
increasing easterly winds at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to
23 knots. As the low approaches the region Friday night into
Saturday, winds will further increase out of the east to 15 to
25 knots with gusts to 32 knots. Winds will weaken a bit
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night as the low passes before
increasing once again Sunday morning from the east with gales
possible for Sunday. A period of conditions hazardous to small
craft is expected for late Friday into Saturday. Rain and
occasional thunderstorms will accompany the winds as well
through the weekend and into early next week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...JJM
MARINE...BJH