052
AXPZ20 KNHC 110836
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat May 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N98W to 07N109W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N109W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N
between 90W and 100W, and from 07N to 11N between 135W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail west of the Baja
California peninsula and southward to near the Revillagigedo
Islands. Gentle to moderate winds are over the southern Gulf of
California, with light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Gulf.
Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere over the open waters
off Mexico. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range west of the Baja
California peninsula, reaching 8 ft SW of the coast of Cabo San
Lucas. Elsewhere over the open water off Mexico, seas are in the
4-6 ft range. Over the Gulf of California, seas of 3 ft or less
prevail.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate northwesterly winds will
prevail off the Baja California waters through the middle of next
week, with small areas of fresh winds today. Northwest swell
will maintain seas to 8 ft today before gradually subsiding to 6
ft or less through early next week. Gentle to locally moderate
winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere across the open
offshore waters of Mexico through the middle of next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough with
light to gentle winds N of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the
6-7 ft range between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands, with
seas of 4-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected
south of the monsoon trough through the middle of next week.
Southerly swell moving through the regional waters will support
seas of 6 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands through Sun.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail with moderate seas
of 6 ft or less.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from high pressure well N of the area
southwestward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trades N of the
ITCZ to near 21N and W of 115W. Seas over this area are in the
6-8 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate winds are elsewhere N of
the ITCZ and monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-7 ft range.
Gentle to moderate winds are found S of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough, with seas of 5-7 ft in mixed SW and SE swell.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are
expected in the trade wind zone N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W
of 120W through Sun, before seas subside slightly through early
next week.

$$
AL