000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231604
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Apr 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends from near the Panama-Colombia border
to 08N91W. An ITCZ continues from 08N91W across 06N115W to beyond
03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
seen near the ITCZ from 03N to 05N between 134W and 137W.
Scattered moderate convection is found south of the trough from
03N to 06N between 84W and 88W, and near the ITCZ from 03N to
06N between 101W and 117W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 1018 mb high pressure near 27N128W
to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and a trough that is over the Gulf of California is
supporting gentle to locally moderate northerly winds and seas of
4 to 6 ft west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo
Islands. The pressure gradient between high pressure along the
eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains of Mexico
and the equatorial trough is supporting fresh to strong winds and
6 to 9 ft seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and nearby waters.
Moderate with locally fresh southerly winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft
are present at the northern Gulf of California. Light to gentle
winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Gulf of
California. Light to gentle with locally moderate N to NE winds
and seas at 3 to 6 ft in moderate NW swell are found across the
offshore waters of central and southern Mexico.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will diminish this afternoon. Seas generated by
these winds will subside this afternoon as well. Gentle to
moderate winds winds and moderate seas will persist west of the
Baja California peninsula through late Wed. Winds will then
freshen Thu through Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and
moderate seas will continue during the period.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft due to mostly
southerly long-period south to southwest swell are over most of
these waters, except off Ecuador, where seas are peaking to about
7 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally northeast to east
winds will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo region through the
rest of the week. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will
continue through the rest of the week. Seas will peak to 7 ft
off Ecuador today.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is analyzed over the waters north of about 17N.
The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds from 07N to 16N between 118W and 129W and from
05N to 17N between 129W and 140W as noted in overnight ASCAT
satellite data passes over those sections of the area. Seas with
these winds are in the 6 to 8 ft range due to a mix of long-
period northwest swell and shorter period trade wind generated
waves. Latest altimeter data satellite passes detect seas of 8
ft along and near 140W from 06N to 12N.

Weak low pressure of 1018 mb is located north of the area near
32N131W, with a trough extending to 30N130W, and continuing
southwestward to 28N132W and to 26N138W. No significant weather
is noted with this system. Moderate to fresh north to northeast
winds are north of the trough along with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

Elsewhere, mostly gentle trade winds are over the discussion
waters. Aside from the seas in the tradewind zone mentioned
above, seas are in the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast, the trade winds will expand some in coverage
during the remainder of the week as stronger high pressure builds
across the region. Seas with these winds are expected to build
a peak of about 9 or 10 ft. The above described weak low
pressure is expected to move east-southeastward and enter the
far north-central portion of the discussion waters on Wed.
Moderate to fresh north winds will follow the low. These winds
are forecast to reach westward to near 131W. Little change in
seas is expected with these winds.

$$

Chan